CA-25: Garcia just barely leads

[I’m not Stu]

Garcia only leads by 0.1%. Will he survive once the remaining ballots are counted?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

We're betting yes

[I’m not Stu]

We're betting yes

Don’t the last remaining mail ballots tend to lean Democratic?

[Tekken_Guy]

Christy Smith needs about 60% of the remaining ballots to win. She's been averaging 52%. Garcia is in a good position right now.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

We're betting yes

Don’t the last remaining mail ballots tend to lean Democratic?

Considering that most of the remaining ballots are in person this year, and that Christy has been failing to hit the percent she needs in Los Angeles county, it's not really relevant.

[I’m not Stu]

Have Democrats lost CA-25 forever, or will redistricting change that?

[Tekken_Guy]

Have Democrats lost CA-25 forever, or will redistricting change that?

Redistricting will probably keep it Dem-leaning. But Garcia could become the next Valadao, and the next cycle should be favorable towards him.

[I’m not Stu]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

[free my dawg]

Let this be a lesson about the merits of reflexive centrism. In a world where her scandal didn't happen, Katie Hill would have won.

[Roll Roons]

Let this be a lesson about the merits of reflexive centrism. In a world where her scandal didn't happen, Katie Hill would have won.

Yes, Hill probably would have won without her scandal, but what does that have to do with centrism? You think the freaking Young Turks guy would have done better?

[coloradocowboi]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

Garcia, but only if the Dems don't nominate Christy Smith again lol so probably Kim

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

Garcia, but only if the Dems don't nominate Christy Smith again lol so probably Kim

Kipp Mueller?

[Politics Fan]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

I suspect the commission will draw a vote sink in Orange County which can probably draw out Kim and shore up the other OC Dems. Steel would be safe. It’s possible to draw a Dem leaning version of CA-25 but from drawing the map it potentially risks other seats and is rather messy. At most Garcia will get a Tossup seat which will still be a tough battle for him to hold on to long term.

[lfromnj]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

I suspect the commission will draw a vote sink in Orange County which can probably draw out Kim and shore up the other OC Dems. Steel would be safe. It’s possible to draw a Dem leaning version of CA-25 but from drawing the map it potentially risks other seats and is rather messy. At most Garcia will get a Tossup seat which will still be a tough battle for him to hold on to long term.

Uh what seat would shoring up CA 25 risk lol?
CA 24 used to be swingy but its clearly safe enough now.

[Politics Fan]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

I suspect the commission will draw a vote sink in Orange County which can probably draw out Kim and shore up the other OC Dems. Steel would be safe. It’s possible to draw a Dem leaning version of CA-25 but from drawing the map it potentially risks other seats and is rather messy. At most Garcia will get a Tossup seat which will still be a tough battle for him to hold on to long term.

Uh what seat would shoring up CA 25 risk lol?
CA 24 used to be swingy but its clearly safe enough now.

I guess it might not it's just tough to draw a very clean map as the blue sections of CA-25 are very much surrounded by red rural and exurban area.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e677e7f8-9f0b-4da9-942c-4cf6aa9bded8

[free my dawg]

Let this be a lesson about the merits of reflexive centrism. In a world where her scandal didn't happen, Katie Hill would have won.

Yes, Hill probably would have won without her scandal, but what does that have to do with centrism? You think the freaking Young Turks guy would have done better?

I'm on the record criticizing Cenk and his dog**** grift of a campaign. Either way, Christy Smith lost partially because the base didn't turn out for her.

Being a divisive asshole was probably a larger part of the campaign, but still. Attacking 30% of your primary voter base doesn't endear you to them, and attacking veterans doesn't endear them to the suburbans you're trying to win over.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

I suspect the commission will draw a vote sink in Orange County which can probably draw out Kim and shore up the other OC Dems. Steel would be safe. It’s possible to draw a Dem leaning version of CA-25 but from drawing the map it potentially risks other seats and is rather messy. At most Garcia will get a Tossup seat which will still be a tough battle for him to hold on to long term.

Other way around. Steel's seat is extremely easy to get rid of. Kim's depends on how minorities in North and West OC continue to vote.

[VAR]

But S019 said he'd get Comstocked.

[I’m not Stu]

What happens if Democrats nominate a competent candidate in 2022 with the new map?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Let this be a lesson about the merits of reflexive centrism. In a world where her scandal didn't happen, Katie Hill would have won.

Yes, Hill probably would have won without her scandal, but what does that have to do with centrism? You think the freaking Young Turks guy would have done better?

I'm on the record criticizing Cenk and his dog**** grift of a campaign. Either way, Christy Smith lost partially because the base didn't turn out for her.

Being a divisive asshole was probably a larger part of the campaign, but still. Attacking 30% of your primary voter base doesn't endear you to them, and attacking veterans doesn't endear them to the suburbans you're trying to win over.

Oh let me tell you, every republican in that race was rooting for Cenk so hard,  he would have been crushed. He was a c*nt, and needlessly rude to Christy every time he could be, I've never seen someone so just rude, not like abrasive or just hard in his attacks, but a c*nt.

[Roll Roons]

Are we getting more LA County ballots tonight?

[lfromnj]

But S019 said he'd get Comstocked.

Amyone who makes a meme avatar but fails should be forced to mock themselves.

[Xing]

If 2022 is favorable enough, he could very well win again (unless Democrats get a very good candidate), but barring a more favorable district to him, it's hard to see him holding on in 2024 and/or beyond...

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Are we getting more LA County ballots tonight?

Unless something changes, anywhere from 2:30-4:45 would be my guess.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

If 2022 is favorable enough, he could very well win again (unless Democrats get a very good candidate), but barring a more favorable district to him, it's hard to see him holding on in 2024 and/or beyond...

While there are ideas about Orange county and the farmer lands districts for redistricting, we've got no idea what'll happen to ca-25