Who wins this hypothetical Pennsylvania 2022 senate election?

[Happpyindy]

Probably Costello would be favored, due to midterm backlash.

[S019]

Costello, but I think Lamb would keep it somewhat close by overperforming in SWPA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably Costello would be favored, due to midterm backlash.

What midterm backlash, during 2018, Trump had backlash due to impeachment and Obama in 2010 lost seats due to 11% unemployment. Non of those will be a factor come 2022

[Pericles]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

Ummmm.... where are you getting your information? There's a lot of talk around the state that he's not even going to run for reelection, as he'd be handily beaten be Becky Kleefisch or RJ, whereas a less feckless D candidate might have a good shot.

Evers had a 50% approval rating (net +7%) in a Marquette poll three weeks ago.

[Pericles]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

Ummmm.... where are you getting your information? There's a lot of talk around the state that he's not even going to run for reelection, as he'd be handily beaten be Becky Kleefisch or RJ, whereas a less feckless D candidate might have a good shot.

Evers had a 50% approval rating (net +7%) in a Marquette poll three weeks ago.

And Biden was winning WI by 17 in some polls. But hey, all I can tell you is what the. WISGOP insiders are anticipating. Take it for what it's worth.

The same poll had Biden up by 5%, so even unskewing it Evers is still in net positive territory.

[Pericles]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

Ummmm.... where are you getting your information? There's a lot of talk around the state that he's not even going to run for reelection, as he'd be handily beaten be Becky Kleefisch or RJ, whereas a less feckless D candidate might have a good shot.

Evers had a 50% approval rating (net +7%) in a Marquette poll three weeks ago.

And Biden was winning WI by 17 in some polls. But hey, all I can tell you is what the. WISGOP insiders are anticipating. Take it for what it's worth.

The same poll had Biden up by 5%, so even unskewing it Evers is still in net positive territory.

Allow me to repeat myself...

Ok sure, but it doesn't seem like Evers is actually so feckless that he needs to be replaced.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

Ummmm.... where are you getting your information? There's a lot of talk around the state that he's not even going to run for reelection, as he'd be handily beaten be Becky Kleefisch or RJ, whereas a less feckless D candidate might have a good shot.

Evers had a 50% approval rating (net +7%) in a Marquette poll three weeks ago.

And Biden was winning WI by 17 in some polls. But hey, all I can tell you is what the. WISGOP insiders are anticipating. Take it for what it's worth.

The same poll had Biden up by 5%, so even unskewing it Evers is still in net positive territory.

Allow me to repeat myself...

.

Biden flipped the WOW COUNTIES THAT WENT R to Trump and Rs still think WI is an R state. Baldwin won by double digits in 2018, and the state went 1 x R since 1988 R and Rs think it's an R tilt state. WI isn't IA or OH and neither is MN

It was Hillary whom lost WI for D's, Biden will campaign for all Ds running for reelection

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

Ummmm.... where are you getting your information? There's a lot of talk around the state that he's not even going to run for reelection, as he'd be handily beaten be Becky Kleefisch or RJ, whereas a less feckless D candidate might have a good shot.

Evers had a 50% approval rating (net +7%) in a Marquette poll three weeks ago.

And Biden was winning WI by 17 in some polls. But hey, all I can tell you is what the. WISGOP insiders are anticipating. Take it for what it's worth.

The same poll had Biden up by 5%, so even unskewing it Evers is still in net positive territory.

Allow me to repeat myself...

.

Biden flipped the WOW COUNTIES THAT WENT R to Trump and Rs still think WI is an R state. Baldwin won by double digits in 2018, and the state went 1 x R since 1988 R and Rs think it's an R tilt state. WI isn't IA or OH and neither is MN

It was Hillary whom lost WI for D's, Biden will campaign for all Ds running for reelection

Biden didn't flip WOW, he gained a little bit of ground relative to Clinton and GOP House candidates outran Trump there, just as Scott Walker did (even in 2018) and Ron Johnson did.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Probably Costello would be favored, due to midterm backlash.

What midterm backlash, during 2018, Trump had backlash due to impeachment and Obama in 2010 lost seats due to 11% unemployment. Non of those will be a factor come 2022

Republicans do not need a landslide to flip the House. In 2010 Republicans won the PV by like 7% if memory serves me.

Just a 2% win would probably net around 20 seats for the Republicans, and a tie probably gives them a narrow House majority.

Such a number also needs to account for the baseline effects in PA, WI, GA and NC

President                          House
Nationally Biden by 4%?   House D+2?
PA Biden by 1.18%           House R+1.28%  
WI Biden by .6%               House R+2.9
GA Biden by .25%             House R+2
NC Trump by 1.5%            House D+0.5% (No Republican votes in NC-12 on DDHQ)

Of course GA does its own thing regardless of popular vote with demographics and trends, but the other states are more sensitive to the national swing.


But lets ride with a 2% win for GOP in the PV, that is R+5 PA and R+7 WI. That's some pretty steep math even for your precious Shapiro and Fetterman, cyclical politics says hello.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably Costello would be favored, due to midterm backlash.

What midterm backlash, during 2018, Trump had backlash due to impeachment and Obama in 2010 lost seats due to 11% unemployment. Non of those will be a factor come 2022

Republicans do not need a landslide to flip the House. In 2010 Republicans won the PV by like 7% if memory serves me.

Just a 2% win would probably net around 20 seats for the Republicans, and a tie probably gives them a narrow House majority.

Such a number also needs to account for the baseline effects in PA, WI, GA and NC

President                          House
Nationally Biden by 4%?   House D+2?
PA Biden by 1.18%           House R+1.28%  
WI Biden by .6%               House R+2.9
GA Biden by .25%             House R+2
NC Trump by 1.5%            House D+0.5% (No Republican votes in NC-12 on DDHQ)

Of course GA does its own thing regardless of popular vote with demographics and trends, but the other states are more sensitive to the national swing.


But lets ride with a 2% win for GOP in the PV, that is R+5 PA and R+7 WI. That's some pretty steep math even for your precious Shapiro and Fetterman, cyclical politics says hello.

That's why if D's flip the Senate after GA Runoffs they want to get DC or PR as statehood and Feinstein and Manchin statement about not breaking filibuster can be taken with a grain of salt, mark my words if D's break the Senate, Chairman DURBIN will push thru PR and DC Statehood that will provide wave insurance 🌊🌊🌊 Insurance for 2022

[Badger]

D's are favored as long as Fetterman or Sharpiro run for Gov and they beat any R running, they will pull D across finish line

Same in WI, Evers is favored for reelection and will pull our Senate candidate across the finish line.

That's why Cook has PA as Tossup not Lean R nd he only has WI as Lean R due to Johnson as the INCUMBENT, he will change it later😀😀😀

Ummmm.... where are you getting your information? There's a lot of talk around the state that he's not even going to run for reelection, as he'd be handily beaten be Becky Kleefisch or RJ, whereas a less feckless D candidate might have a good shot.

Evers had a 50% approval rating (net +7%) in a Marquette poll three weeks ago.

And Biden was winning WI by 17 in some polls. But hey, all I can tell you is what the. WISGOP insiders are anticipating. Take it for what it's worth.

The same poll had Biden up by 5%, so even unskewing it Evers is still in net positive territory.

Allow me to repeat myself...

No need. Your posts are insufferable enough as is.

[ctherainbow]

So about that Pennsylvania senate race...    

Honestly, I’m not sure that Costello would make it through the GOP primary.  He has the kind of upper-class suburban Republican image that is not likely to play super well in a state where a vast portion of the Republican primary electorate is rural, not suburban, and (speaking from a lifetime of experience as a rural Pennsylvanian), very much looks down on “rich elites”(which they see people from the SEPA burbs as).  I believe Guy Reschenthaler would easily knock Costello out in the primary, or Scott Perry if he’s concerned about his district adding Lancaster city in redistricting.  Perry’s district changing like that is albeit a longshot, but my point is that there are a vast number of other contenders who are currently in the public eye, including many state legislative members, who would likely beat out Costello in the primary.

I’m also not sure that Lamb will be the nominee on the Democratic side.  While he did win his district extremely narrowly, and might want to avoid a more right-leaning district after 2021, the Democratic Auditor General primary might be a good example to look at if a Philly-area Dem, like Chrissy Houlahan, runs against Lamb for the nomination.  There are simply not enough Democrats in Lamb’s home region of the state to offset the already larger, and expanding, Democratic strength in the Greater Philly area.  If Chrissy, or a well-known Philly area state Dem, like State Senator Sharif Street, were to run, I could see Connor losing just off geographic bias.  The rivalry between Philly and Pittsburgh within the PA Dems is serious, and I’ve seen it outweigh ideological factors before for voters.

But we’ll have to see what happens!

To answer the OP’s question, though, at this moment, between Costello and Lamb, I would rate it a Tossup.  There is not enough information yet about what 2022 will look like.  If forced to choose, at this moment, I would go with Tilt Lamb, though against a stronger opponent than Costello, I would rate it Tilt R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So about that Pennsylvania senate race...    

Honestly, I’m not sure that Costello would make it through the GOP primary.  He has the kind of upper-class suburban Republican image that is not likely to play super well in a state where a vast portion of the Republican primary electorate is rural, not suburban, and (speaking from a lifetime of experience as a rural Pennsylvanian), very much looks down on “rich elites”(which they see people from the SEPA burbs as).  I believe Guy Reschenthaler would easily knock Costello out in the primary, or Scott Perry if he’s concerned about his district adding Lancaster city in redistricting.  Perry’s district changing like that is albeit a longshot, but my point is that there are a vast number of other contenders who are currently in the public eye, including many state legislative members, who would likely beat out Costello in the primary.

I’m also not sure that Lamb will be the nominee on the Democratic side.  While he did win his district extremely narrowly, and might want to avoid a more right-leaning district after 2021, the Democratic Auditor General primary might be a good example to look at if a Philly-area Dem, like Chrissy Houlahan, runs against Lamb for the nomination.  There are simply not enough Democrats in Lamb’s home region of the state to offset the already larger, and expanding, Democratic strength in the Greater Philly area.  If Chrissy, or a well-known Philly area state Dem, like State Senator Sharif Street, were to run, I could see Connor losing just off geographic bias.  The rivalry between Philly and Pittsburgh within the PA Dems is serious, and I’ve seen it outweigh ideological factors before for voters.

But we’ll have to see what happens!

To answer the OP’s question, though, at this moment, between Costello and Lamb, I would rate it a Tossup.  There is not enough information yet about what 2022 will look like.  If forced to choose, at this moment, I would go with Tilt Lamb, though against a stronger opponent than Costello, I would rate it Tilt R.

Dems are fav in the Gov race and so are they in WI, and the Senate races are likely to flip with  NC, should Jeff Jackson

Both WI and PA are Tossups/Tilt D due to Gov races  are stacked in fav of Ds

[ctherainbow]

Dems are fav in the Gov race and so are they in WI, and the Senate races are likely to flip with  NC, should Jeff Jackson

Both WI and PA are Tossups/Tilt D due to Gov races  are stacked in fav of Ds

I agree with you that Dems, despite backlash against Governor Wolf, and PA’s tradition of switching governors by party every 8 years, are likely still the slight favorites, as Josh Shapiro is almost guaranteed to run, and his strong performance(outrunning every other statewide Dem candidate as well as many congressional/local candidates) points to a popularity and profile across PA that will be hard to match.  In much of the precinct-level data that I’ve looked into for NEPA, Shapiro appears to have ticket-split many Trump voters, as he generally ran several points ahead of Biden, and often received a significantly higher number of raw votes than Biden in many precincts, including rural townships.  I almost feel that he should run for Toomey’s seat instead, but risking his Pennsylvania profile on a nationalized race, and greater chances at winning the governor’s seat, doesn’t seem like something Josh is interested in.

[It’s so Joever]

Tossup.
I don’t think 2022 will be the nuclear disaster Atlas thinks it will be.
Just like 2018 and 2020 weren’t the nuclear disasters Atlas thought it would be for Republicans.
You all really underestimate polarization and the fact that the fundamentals probably will favor Biden a bit by 2022 midterms.
I would have hoped the conclusion this year is that waves are difficult to achieve even with the perfect storm, but nope.
The next true R-leaning year will likely be 2026, and even then it will be at most a 2014 style year (strong but not life-ending)
It does depend on how aggressive Democrats are in the future.