How competitive will NE-02 be in 2024?

[VAR]

I'd rate it Lean D for now, but Omaha suburbs don't look too bad for the GOP post-Trump.

[DaleCooper]

It could be a tossup or even lean R if they nominate someone credible, but it'll be likely D if the GOP nominee is Tucker Carlson or some other clown like Don Jr.

Of course, this also depends on redistricting to a degree, but I don't know that there's likely to be an egregious gerrymander this decade.

[MargieCat]

Will that district only be competitive on the presidential level?

Or will they vote for a democratic congressman in the future?

Kara Eastman couldn't win this year, despite Biden carrying the district.

[neostassenite31]

Everything will depend on the redistricting. Congressional districts are not equivalent to states and boundaries change

[S019]

Not that competitive, I'd say Lean D

[DaleCooper]

Everything will depend on the redistricting. Congressional districts are not equivalent to states and boundaries change

The district is already gerrymandered to give Republicans a slight edge. In order to do something over-the-top like split Omaha into two districts, the legislature would need to get rid of its filibuster, and I don't know that the state's Republican Party has the desire or the votes to do that. It'd be kind of pointless since Republicans can already win fairly comfortably in the district even though Biden carried it against Trump. Our current congressman proved that this year.

[Pericles]

Nebraska might also go back to winner take all for the Electoral College, I think it nearly happened in 2010 and this time there's a small chance it could actually prove decisive in a presidential race. Biden could still have a meaningless win in the House district.

[Astatine]

Nebraska might also go back to winner take all for the Electoral College, I think it nearly happened in 2010 and this time there's a small chance it could actually prove decisive in a presidential race. Biden could still have a meaningless win in the House district.

As Maine has retained its Democratic trifecta (correct me if I'm wrong, I read that the only chambers flipping were both NH legislatures), is there any possibility Maine would go back to winner takes it all in case Nebraska does?

[Pericles]

Nebraska might also go back to winner take all for the Electoral College, I think it nearly happened in 2010 and this time there's a small chance it could actually prove decisive in a presidential race. Biden could still have a meaningless win in the House district.

As Maine has retained its Democratic trifecta (correct me if I'm wrong, I read that the only chambers flipping were both NH legislatures), is there any possibility Maine would go back to winner takes it all in case Nebraska does?

I'm not sure, but it's a much bigger risk for Democrats to do that than for Republicans to make Nebraska winner take all. Nebraska is Safe Republican presidentially, while Maine statewide is just Lean or Likely Democratic. So there is a real risk it backfires in a few elections if Maine trends Republican and Democrats lose one electoral vote they otherwise would have received. In most elections it does benefit them so maybe it's a risk worth taking, but it is a significant risk nonetheless.