Florida 2024

[Sirius_]

So, this is an interesting one that I would like to know people's thoughts on, particularly Floridians. A decent number of people don't seem to think this is winnable anymore but it seems to me like it should still be considered a contested state, as I have my doubts that the 2024 GOP nominee will reach the Trump Cuban margin again. If Dems clean up the latino problem, and continue to win Duval, I'd say this is still up for grabs. Am I wrong somehow?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Cuban embargo is an issue from Obama administration, Biden along with Obama wanted to get rid of it, and PR and Cubans in FL seem to careless about PR statehood and voted Trump and minimum wage increase in 2020

[SnowLabrador]

You are wrong. The Democrats nominated Joe Biden rather than Bernie Sanders, and yet the Cubans still swung massively towards Trump. Florida is gone for the foreseeable future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know that Cubans can care less about PR statehood and so does many Mexican Latinos in TX, PR Statehood was on the ballot this yr and they voted Trump

DC statehood is more of a probablity, the D's weren't gonna get both anyways

[Suburbia]

Florida is Lean R

[Pericles]

Florida is Lean R

[Frenchrepublican]

Not sure why you expect South Florida to suddenly swing back heavily to the left, especially considering that democrats are unlikely to abandon the positions which cost them support in this area.

Anyway generally speaking areas which move massively in one direction between two elections don't revert back and if so it's very marginal.

[Donerail]

Nothing people on this website love more than overreacting to one data point.

[Frenchrepublican]

Nothing people on this website love more than overreacting to one data point.

The problem for democrats is that in fact it's not just one data point, you have the 2016 pres race in which Clinton did worse than expected, you have the 2018 gubernatorial race, the 2018 sen race, the repeated failures at winning the State Senate.

[EastwoodS]

Not sure why you expect South Florida to suddenly swing back heavily to the left, especially considering that democrats are unlikely to abandon the positions which cost them support in this area.

Anyway generally speaking areas which move massively in one direction between two elections don't revert back and if so it's very marginal.

I saw that someone thought the Cuban vote will magically and gratuitously swing back to the Democrats and that they will keep the suburbs so therefore Florida will go back to being a razor thin state ?? Really? There’s no evidence to suggest that the suburbs are solidified for Democrats and that the Cubans will go back to the left. They are aloof to the fact that Biden probably had one of the most unstable and uncharismatic bases of any presidential candidate in history.

[AGA]

Florida is Lean Likely R

[Donerail]

Nothing people on this website love more than overreacting to one data point.

The problem for democrats is that in fact it's not just one data point, you have the 2016 pres race in which Clinton did worse than expected, you have the 2018 gubernatorial race, the 2018 sen race, the repeated failures at winning the State Senate.

Not sure what you think that proves — Democrats only lost both 2018 races by recount margins. If either side allocates their spending a little differently, or the economy's a little better or worse, or the weather was different, you'd have gotten a different outcome. Not the evidence I would rely on, personally, as proof of a perpetual demographic majority.

[Sirius_]

Trump was clearly stronger with the Latino vote in FL than DeSantis or Scott were in 2018. Its obviously too early to know for sure but it is entirely possible that Trump had more to do with it than the GOP as a whole, we can't assume that any republican candidate would get the same margin or that the narratives will even be the same by then. I also find it odd to assert that sudden, one election shifts always stay the same? Otherwise Obama should have surely been competitive in Indiana in 2012.

[Tekken_Guy]

As of right now, I expect the GOP candidate to carry FL in 2024, but it’s by no means a guarantee.