Orange County by City/Town

[Torie]

I haven't seen any official data yet, but from precinct results I'm guessing these are the flips:
Trump to Biden:
Laguna Niguel
Laguna Hills
Mission Viejo
Lake Forest
Tustin

Clinton to Trump:
Westminster
Garden Grove
Fountain Valley

Laguna Niguel did flip. LN as you probably know is a largely white (with a sprinkling of Asians)  upper middle class well educated suburb, that is most decidedly not "progressive" when it comes to economic issues. The toxicity of Trump is pretty obvious. Interestingly my very demographically stable former precinct (notwithstanding the fact that I was replaced by my best friend, an Hispanic dude with his four kids who lives in my house at the moment, and thereby exponentially helped to diversify my block - yeah!) relatively even higher income and more white precinct than LN as a whole (the first three lines of the matrix chart) has trended even more Dem than the city overall. It is a precinct with very few children, because the homes have views, and the better the view, the higher the cost per square foot of a home, and at a given price point, those with kids would prefer more square feet in lieu of a view. Well to do well educated older white people in large metro areas tend not to be MAGA types.  Who knew?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It is a precinct with very few children, because the homes have views, and the better the view, the higher the cost per square foot, and at a given price point, those with kids would prefer more square feet in lieu of a view. Well to do well educated Californian older white people in large metro areas tend not to be MAGA types.  Who knew?

Me actually (including in this very specific slice of the county.) I interact with these people often enough and a lot of them didn't only vote for Biden but also switched their party registration. I'm always shocked by how Republican this demographic is in other states, particularly in the South, considering my experiences with them in Southern California.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is a precinct with very few children, because the homes have views, and the better the view, the higher the cost per square foot, and at a given price point, those with kids would prefer more square feet in lieu of a view. Well to do well educated Californian older white people in large metro areas tend not to be MAGA types.  Who knew?

Me actually (including in this very specific slice of the county.) I interact with these people often enough and a lot of them didn't only vote for Biden but also switched their party registration. I'm always shocked by how Republican this demographic is in other states, particularly in the South, considering my experiences with them in Southern California.

Well the south is a very special case though , it’s basically a place where the Urban/Rural divide happen to be more cause of the fact that urban areas are more diverse than anything and while that has reduced greatly since 2012 it’s still much much more of a factor in the south than in any other region.


Take GA for example where Trump still won 57% of College Educated whites in the Atlanta suburbs : https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia/45


In GA that’s still terrible terrible news for the GOP as pre 2016 that number used to be 70%+ for the Republicans

[OSR stands with Israel]

Look at this thread about OC from 2008: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87132.25


Wow Torie mentions how OC has become more Republicans since the mid-late 1970s lol


And this is how Orange County voted in 2004 by city

Aliso Viejo: 58-41 Bush
Anaheim: 58-41 Bush
Brea: 66-33 Bush
Buena Park: 55-44 Bush
Costa Mesa: 56-43 Bush
Cypress: 59-40 Bush
Dana Point: 60-39 Bush
Fountain Valley: 65-34 Bush
Fullerton: 59-40 Bush
Garden Grove: 61-38 Bush
Huntington Beach: 60-39 Bush
Irvine: 52-47 Bush
La Habra: 58-41 Bush
La Palma: 57-42 Bush
Laguna Beach: 57-42 Kerry
Laguna Hills: 63-36 Bush
Laguna Niguel: 61-38 Bush
Laguna Woods: 53-46 Kerry
Lake Forest: 64-35 Bush
Mission Viejo: 64-35 Bush
Newport Beach: 65-34 Bush
Orange: 63-35 Bush
Placentia: 63-36 Bush
Rancho Santa Margarita: 67-32 Bush
San Clemente: 64-34 Bush
San Juan: 64-34 Bush
Santa Ana: 54-45 Kerry
Seal Beach: 54-45 Bush
Stanton: 55-43 Bush
Tustin: 58-41 Bush
Villa Park: 77-22 Bush
Westminster: 64-35 Bush
Yorba Linda: 72-27 Bush
Unincorporated Orange County: 67-32 Bush
Total: 60-39  Bush

[H. Ross Peron]

Look at this thread about OC from 2008: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87132.25


Wow Torie mentions how OC has become more Republicans since the mid-late 1970s lol


And this is how Orange County voted in 2004 by city

Aliso Viejo: 58-41 Bush
Anaheim: 58-41 Bush
Brea: 66-33 Bush
Buena Park: 55-44 Bush
Costa Mesa: 56-43 Bush
Cypress: 59-40 Bush
Dana Point: 60-39 Bush
Fountain Valley: 65-34 Bush
Fullerton: 59-40 Bush
Garden Grove: 61-38 Bush
Huntington Beach: 60-39 Bush
Irvine: 52-47 Bush
La Habra: 58-41 Bush
La Palma: 57-42 Bush
Laguna Beach: 57-42 Kerry
Laguna Hills: 63-36 Bush
Laguna Niguel: 61-38 Bush
Laguna Woods: 53-46 Kerry
Lake Forest: 64-35 Bush
Mission Viejo: 64-35 Bush
Newport Beach: 65-34 Bush
Orange: 63-35 Bush
Placentia: 63-36 Bush
Rancho Santa Margarita: 67-32 Bush
San Clemente: 64-34 Bush
San Juan: 64-34 Bush
Santa Ana: 54-45 Kerry
Seal Beach: 54-45 Bush
Stanton: 55-43 Bush
Tustin: 58-41 Bush
Villa Park: 77-22 Bush
Westminster: 64-35 Bush
Yorba Linda: 72-27 Bush
Unincorporated Orange County: 67-32 Bush
Total: 60-39  Bush

Pretty insane that Anaheim voted for Bush by 17 and Kerry only won Santa Ana by less than 10 points that year.

Does anyone have the numbers for LA County cities this year?

[mileslunn]

Asians historically voted GOP, Reagan won them both times as did Bush sr., so Bush jr, still had lots of residual support there.  Many in Asian community have above average incomes so naturally like GOP's economic policies, but are more educated so current GOP a big turn off.  Despite all the talk of Trump's gains amongst Hispanics, he still got a full 10% below what Bush jr, did, after all Bush 04 won New Mexico which Trump lost by 11 points.  Amongst college educated whites, Bush was more like Romney in support.  A lot of this group are your types who support the Lincoln Project.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Asians historically voted GOP, Reagan won them both times as did Bush sr., so Bush jr, still had lots of residual support there.  Many in Asian community have above average incomes so naturally like GOP's economic policies, but are more educated so current GOP a big turn off.  Despite all the talk of Trump's gains amongst Hispanics, he still got a full 10% below what Bush jr, did, after all Bush 04 won New Mexico which Trump lost by 11 points.  Amongst college educated whites, Bush was more like Romney in support.  A lot of this group are your types who support the Lincoln Project.

Bush did even better with college-educated whites than Romney did(at least outside the North East) though if you dont count millennials its probably the same (given there were barely any millenials voting in 2004).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It seems like with San Bernardino County, those in LA metro area (although some separate inland Empire) are mostly going for Biden while towns and rural areas outside commuting distance for LA going mainly for Trump.

I may do a 2012-2020 swing/flip post for the IE & OC.

But to your point, I found it interesting how the only GOP flips since 2012 in the IE have been in Barstow, Blythe & Needles.

Meanwhile, Dems have damn near swept NW Riverside & SW San Bernardino Counties + the Coachella Valley while cracking in places like Hemet & Banning/Beaumont. If current trends continue, I'm not sure Temecula/Murrieta will be safe GOP by 2030.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Don't think Trump got 47.77% in Coachella, probably a typo.  Do you mean 17.77%?

Trump got 19.77% in Coachella (including write-ins).

Interlocutor, do the 2016-2020 swings you have for Riverside and San Bernardino counties include write-ins by municipalities for those two counties? In 2016, I don't think Riverside and San Bernardino published their write-ins by municipalities, but it looks like they have for 2020 is why I asked.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Don't think Trump got 47.77% in Coachella, probably a typo.  Do you mean 17.77%?

Trump got 19.77% in Coachella (including write-ins).

Interlocutor, do the 2016-2020 swings you have for Riverside and San Bernardino counties include write-ins by municipalities for those two counties? In 2016, I don't think Riverside and San Bernardino published their write-ins by municipalities, but it looks like they have for 2020 is why I asked.

I'll be honest and say that the 2016 results did not. I can't find write-in votes for 2012 or 2016 from the state or county websites.

With that said, I guess you can just ignore my posts in this thread since they're inaccurate

[HAnnA MArin County]

I know this thread is supposed to be just for Orange County, but since Interlocutor posted Riverside and San Bernardino, let's move to Northern California and take a look at one of my favorite counties in California!

OFFICIAL 2020 San Mateo County, CA Presidential Election Results
East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% — Trump 11.34% = D+ 75.25
Menlo Park: Biden 84.60% — Trump 13.40% = D+ 71.20
Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% — Trump 17.16% = D+ 63.18
Redwood City: Biden 80.48% — Trump 17.41% = D+ 63.07
Brisbane: Biden 79.74% — Trump 18.00% = D+ 61.74
San Carlos: Biden 79.64% — Trump 18.45% = D+ 61.19
Colma: Biden 79.42% — Trump 19.05% = D+ 60.37
Belmont: Biden 78.79% — Trump 19.08% = D+ 59.71
San Mateo: Biden 77.92% — Trump 20.18% = D+ 57.74
Burlingame: Biden 77.87% — Trump 20.33% = D+ 57.54
Daly City: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
Pacifica: Biden 76.49% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.13
Foster City: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% — Trump 21.89% = D+ 53.92
San Bruno: Biden 74.58% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 51.03
Woodside: Biden 73.01% — Trump 24.67% = D+ 48.34
Atherton: Biden 71.79% — Trump 25.80% = D+ 45.99
Millbrae: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% — Trump 29.34% = D+ 38.97

FLIPS (2016-2020)
None

SWINGS (2016-2020)*
Hillsborough: D+ 06.90
Atherton: D+ 05.68
Woodside: D+ 05.00
San Carlos: D+ 04.78
Belmont: D+ 04.39
Portola Valley: D+ 04.26
Redwood City: D+ 03.83
Half Moon Bay: D+ 03.48
Foster City: D+ 03.27
Menlo Park: D+ 02.29
Burlingame: D+ 02.18
San Mateo: D+ 01.07
Pacifica: D+ 00.19
Brisbane: D+ 00.13
Millbrae: R+ 01.29
San Bruno: R+ 01.51
South San Francisco: R+ 04.29
East Palo Alto: R+ 06.38
Daly City: R+ 07.99
Colma: R+ 09.86
_{*Includes write-ins by municipalities for both 2016 and 2020}

[HAnnA MArin County]

Don't think Trump got 47.77% in Coachella, probably a typo.  Do you mean 17.77%?

Trump got 19.77% in Coachella (including write-ins).

Interlocutor, do the 2016-2020 swings you have for Riverside and San Bernardino counties include write-ins by municipalities for those two counties? In 2016, I don't think Riverside and San Bernardino published their write-ins by municipalities, but it looks like they have for 2020 is why I asked.

I'll be honest and say that the 2016 results did not. I can't find write-in votes for 2012 or 2016 from the state or county websites.

With that said, I guess you can just ignore my posts in this thread since they're inaccurate

Oh no I wasn't meaning it in a condescending way; I was just wondering because I haven't been able to find the 2016 write-in results by cities for a number of counties (but I have found a few), and was hoping that perhaps you DID have the write-ins. I've always been curious as to why the write-ins are not published by cities in the supplement that is published on the Secretary of State's website?

For 2016, I have the write-ins by cities for all of the following counties: Alameda, Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Contra Costa, Del Norte, Fresno (missing Clovis), Glenn, Humboldt, Imperial, Inyo, Kern, Lassen, Marin, Mendocino, Merced, Modoc, Monterey, Napa, Nevada (missing Grass Valley), Orange, Placer, Plumas, San Benito, San Diego, San Francisco, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Shasta, Sierra, Solano, and Yolo.

If anyone out there by chance has the write-ins by municipalities for El Dorado, Kings, Lake, Los Angeles, Madera, Mono, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Siskiyou, Sonoma, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Tuolumne, Ventura, and Yuba counties, please DM me as I would love to have them if you’re in a sharing mood this holiday season:) <I emailed Los Angeles County a month or so ago and they still haven't responded.> Bah humbug.

[NOVA Green]

I know this thread is supposed to be just for Orange County, but since Interlocutor posted Riverside and San Bernardino, let's move to Northern California and take a look at one of my favorite counties in California!

OFFICIAL 2020 San Mateo County, CA Presidential Election Results
East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% — Trump 11.34% = D+ 75.25
Menlo Park: Biden 84.60% — Trump 13.40% = D+ 71.20
Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% — Trump 17.16% = D+ 63.18
Redwood City: Biden 80.48% — Trump 17.41% = D+ 63.07
Brisbane: Biden 79.74% — Trump 18.00% = D+ 61.74
San Carlos: Biden 79.64% — Trump 18.45% = D+ 61.19
Colma: Biden 79.42% — Trump 19.05% = D+ 60.37
Belmont: Biden 78.79% — Trump 19.08% = D+ 59.71
San Mateo: Biden 77.92% — Trump 20.18% = D+ 57.74
Burlingame: Biden 77.87% — Trump 20.33% = D+ 57.54
Daly City: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
Pacifica: Biden 76.49% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.13
Foster City: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% — Trump 21.89% = D+ 53.92
San Bruno: Biden 74.58% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 51.03
Woodside: Biden 73.01% — Trump 24.67% = D+ 48.34
Atherton: Biden 71.79% — Trump 25.80% = D+ 45.99
Millbrae: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% — Trump 29.34% = D+ 38.97

FLIPS (2016-2020)
None

SWINGS (2016-2020)*
Hillsborough: D+ 06.90
Atherton: D+ 05.68
Woodside: D+ 05.00
San Carlos: D+ 04.78
Belmont: D+ 04.39
Portola Valley: D+ 04.26
Redwood City: D+ 03.83
Half Moon Bay: D+ 03.48
Foster City: D+ 03.27
Menlo Park: D+ 02.29
Burlingame: D+ 02.18
San Mateo: D+ 01.07
Pacifica: D+ 00.19
Brisbane: D+ 00.13
Millbrae: R+ 01.29
San Bruno: R+ 01.51
South San Francisco: R+ 04.29
East Palo Alto: R+ 06.38
Daly City: R+ 07.99
Colma: R+ 09.86
_{*Includes write-ins by municipalities for both 2016 and 2020}

Wow!

Surprising Atherton had any room to swing....

When I was working down in Silicon Valley was relatively Romney Country in '12, then Trump happened and swung DEM...

I guess that 26% that voted Trump '20 are the real 1% ers so hopefully we can look at their tax records because of business scams shifting jobs and $$$ overseas, while pretending to hide their business expenses under FED tax codes.

https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-of-tech-ceos-in-atherton-silicon-valley-2017-10#mega-mansions-line-nearly-every-block-many-homes-have-fences-or-landscaping-that-prevent-prying-eyes-from-looking-in-each-lot-feels-like-its-own-gated-community-2

[HAnnA MArin County]

Wow!

Surprising Atherton had any room to swing....

When I was working down in Silicon Valley was relatively Romney Country in '12, then Trump happened and swung DEM...

I guess that 26% that voted Trump '20 are the real 1% ers so hopefully we can look at their tax records because of business scams shifting jobs and $$$ overseas, while pretending to hide their business expenses under FED tax codes.

https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-of-tech-ceos-in-atherton-silicon-valley-2017-10#mega-mansions-line-nearly-every-block-many-homes-have-fences-or-landscaping-that-prevent-prying-eyes-from-looking-in-each-lot-feels-like-its-own-gated-community-2

Yeah, Atherton and Hillsborough were the only two San Mateo County municipalities that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. The swings from 2012-2016 in those places were yuuuugggeee:

ATHERTON
2012 (R+ 04.89)
Mitt Romney 2,104 (51.48%)
Barack Obama 1,904 (46.59%)
Gary Johnson 47 (1.15%)
Jill Stein 18 (0.44%)
Write-ins 5 (0.12%)
Roseanne Barr 5 (0.12%)
Thomas C. Hoefling 4 (0.10%)
2016 (D+ 40.31)
Hillary Rodham Clinton 2,620 (66.18%)
Donald J. Trump 1,024 (25.87%)
Gary Johnson 247 (6.24%)
Jill Stein 34 (0.86%)
Evan McMullin 17 (0.43%)
Bernie Sanders 10 (0.25%)
Gloria E. La Riva 6 (0.15%)
Other Write-ins 1 (0.03%)
2020 (D+ 45.99)
Joe Biden 3,194 (71.79%)
Donald J. Trump 1,148 (25.80%)
Jo Jorgensen 81 (1.82%)
Rocky De La Fuente 14 (0.32%)
Howie Hawkins 6 (0.14%)
Gloria E. La Riva 5 (0.11%)
Write-ins 1 (0.02%)
SWING (12-16): D+ 45.20 (!!!)
SWING (16-20): D+ 05.68

HILLSBOROUGH
2012 (R+ 07.69)
Mitt Romney 3,118 (53.13%)
Barack Obama 2,667 (45.44%)
Gary Johnson 54 (0.92%)
Jill Stein 18 (0.31%)
Roseanne Barr 6 (0.10%)
Write-ins 4 (0.07%)
Thomas C. Hoefling 2 (0.03%)
2016 (D+ 32.07)
Hillary Rodham Clinton 3,757 (62.56%)
Donald J. Trump 1,831 (30.49%)
Gary Johnson 310 (5.16%)
Jill Stein 51 (0.85%)
Evan McMullin 23 (0.38%)
Bernie Sanders 21 (0.35%)
Gloria E. La Riva 11 (0.18%)
Other Write-ins 1 (0.02%)
2020 (D+ 38.97)
Joe Biden 4,915 (68.31%)
Donald J. Trump 2,111 (29.34%)
Jo Jorgensen 118 (1.64%)
Rocky De La Fuente 30 (0.42%)
Howie Hawkins 16 (0.22%)
Gloria E. La Riva 4 (0.06%)
Write-ins 1 (0.01%)
SWING (12-16): D+ 39.76 (!!!)
SWING (16-20): D+ 06.90

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I know this thread is supposed to be just for Orange County, but since Interlocutor posted Riverside and San Bernardino, let's move to Northern California and take a look at one of my favorite counties in California!

OFFICIAL 2020 San Mateo County, CA Presidential Election Results
East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% — Trump 11.34% = D+ 75.25
Menlo Park: Biden 84.60% — Trump 13.40% = D+ 71.20
Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% — Trump 17.16% = D+ 63.18
Redwood City: Biden 80.48% — Trump 17.41% = D+ 63.07
Brisbane: Biden 79.74% — Trump 18.00% = D+ 61.74
San Carlos: Biden 79.64% — Trump 18.45% = D+ 61.19
Colma: Biden 79.42% — Trump 19.05% = D+ 60.37
Belmont: Biden 78.79% — Trump 19.08% = D+ 59.71
San Mateo: Biden 77.92% — Trump 20.18% = D+ 57.74
Burlingame: Biden 77.87% — Trump 20.33% = D+ 57.54
Daly City: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
Pacifica: Biden 76.49% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.13
Foster City: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% — Trump 21.89% = D+ 53.92
San Bruno: Biden 74.58% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 51.03
Woodside: Biden 73.01% — Trump 24.67% = D+ 48.34
Atherton: Biden 71.79% — Trump 25.80% = D+ 45.99
Millbrae: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% — Trump 29.34% = D+ 38.97

FLIPS (2016-2020)
None

SWINGS (2016-2020)*
Hillsborough: D+ 06.90
Atherton: D+ 05.68
Woodside: D+ 05.00
San Carlos: D+ 04.78
Belmont: D+ 04.39
Portola Valley: D+ 04.26
Redwood City: D+ 03.83
Half Moon Bay: D+ 03.48
Foster City: D+ 03.27
Menlo Park: D+ 02.29
Burlingame: D+ 02.18
San Mateo: D+ 01.07
Pacifica: D+ 00.19
Brisbane: D+ 00.13
Millbrae: R+ 01.29
San Bruno: R+ 01.51
South San Francisco: R+ 04.29
East Palo Alto: R+ 06.38
Daly City: R+ 07.99
Colma: R+ 09.86
_{*Includes write-ins by municipalities for both 2016 and 2020}

The R swings in the more Latino and more Asian cities (GOP stronghold Hillsborough notwithstanding) look ominous until you realize they were still mostly over 75% Biden. Colma (smaller suburb just outside SF, necropolis, 70% Latino + Asian) had the largest R swing for some reason.

[cg41386]

I know this thread is supposed to be just for Orange County, but since Interlocutor posted Riverside and San Bernardino, let's move to Northern California and take a look at one of my favorite counties in California!

OFFICIAL 2020 San Mateo County, CA Presidential Election Results
East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% — Trump 11.34% = D+ 75.25
Menlo Park: Biden 84.60% — Trump 13.40% = D+ 71.20
Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% — Trump 17.16% = D+ 63.18
Redwood City: Biden 80.48% — Trump 17.41% = D+ 63.07
Brisbane: Biden 79.74% — Trump 18.00% = D+ 61.74
San Carlos: Biden 79.64% — Trump 18.45% = D+ 61.19
Colma: Biden 79.42% — Trump 19.05% = D+ 60.37
Belmont: Biden 78.79% — Trump 19.08% = D+ 59.71
San Mateo: Biden 77.92% — Trump 20.18% = D+ 57.74
Burlingame: Biden 77.87% — Trump 20.33% = D+ 57.54
Daly City: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
Pacifica: Biden 76.49% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.13
Foster City: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% — Trump 21.89% = D+ 53.92
San Bruno: Biden 74.58% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 51.03
Woodside: Biden 73.01% — Trump 24.67% = D+ 48.34
Atherton: Biden 71.79% — Trump 25.80% = D+ 45.99
Millbrae: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% — Trump 29.34% = D+ 38.97

FLIPS (2016-2020)
None

SWINGS (2016-2020)*
Hillsborough: D+ 06.90
Atherton: D+ 05.68
Woodside: D+ 05.00
San Carlos: D+ 04.78
Belmont: D+ 04.39
Portola Valley: D+ 04.26
Redwood City: D+ 03.83
Half Moon Bay: D+ 03.48
Foster City: D+ 03.27
Menlo Park: D+ 02.29
Burlingame: D+ 02.18
San Mateo: D+ 01.07
Pacifica: D+ 00.19
Brisbane: D+ 00.13
Millbrae: R+ 01.29
San Bruno: R+ 01.51
South San Francisco: R+ 04.29
East Palo Alto: R+ 06.38
Daly City: R+ 07.99
Colma: R+ 09.86
_{*Includes write-ins by municipalities for both 2016 and 2020}

The R swings in the more Latino and more Asian cities (GOP stronghold Hillsborough notwithstanding) look ominous until you realize they were still mostly over 75% Biden. Colma (smaller suburb just outside SF, necropolis, 70% Latino + Asian) had the largest R swing for some reason.

Colma only has around 1500 residents, so even a small number can cause a high percentage.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Don't think Trump got 47.77% in Coachella, probably a typo.  Do you mean 17.77%?

Trump got 19.77% in Coachella (including write-ins).

Interlocutor, do the 2016-2020 swings you have for Riverside and San Bernardino counties include write-ins by municipalities for those two counties? In 2016, I don't think Riverside and San Bernardino published their write-ins by municipalities, but it looks like they have for 2020 is why I asked.

I'll be honest and say that the 2016 results did not. I can't find write-in votes for 2012 or 2016 from the state or county websites.

With that said, I guess you can just ignore my posts in this thread since they're inaccurate

Oh no I wasn't meaning it in a condescending way; I was just wondering because I haven't been able to find the 2016 write-in results by cities for a number of counties (but I have found a few), and was hoping that perhaps you DID have the write-ins. I've always been curious as to why the write-ins are not published by cities in the supplement that is published on the Secretary of State's website?

Sorry if I came across a little combative. I didn't want to be put on blast


The weird thing is that the state does provide write-in votes by county but not cities. And for some counties (Riverside/SanBerdoo), this is the first year they've broken down write-ins by precinct, but their new reporting format is so bloated that it's a chore having to scrape for city results. I wish California had a more standardized way of reporting district/city-wide results.

That being said, I'll get to work on my 2012-2020 data!

[NOVA Green]

I know this thread is supposed to be just for Orange County, but since Interlocutor posted Riverside and San Bernardino, let's move to Northern California and take a look at one of my favorite counties in California!

OFFICIAL 2020 San Mateo County, CA Presidential Election Results
East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% — Trump 11.34% = D+ 75.25
Menlo Park: Biden 84.60% — Trump 13.40% = D+ 71.20
Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% — Trump 17.16% = D+ 63.18
Redwood City: Biden 80.48% — Trump 17.41% = D+ 63.07
Brisbane: Biden 79.74% — Trump 18.00% = D+ 61.74
San Carlos: Biden 79.64% — Trump 18.45% = D+ 61.19
Colma: Biden 79.42% — Trump 19.05% = D+ 60.37
Belmont: Biden 78.79% — Trump 19.08% = D+ 59.71
San Mateo: Biden 77.92% — Trump 20.18% = D+ 57.74
Burlingame: Biden 77.87% — Trump 20.33% = D+ 57.54
Daly City: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
Pacifica: Biden 76.49% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.13
Foster City: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% — Trump 21.89% = D+ 53.92
San Bruno: Biden 74.58% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 51.03
Woodside: Biden 73.01% — Trump 24.67% = D+ 48.34
Atherton: Biden 71.79% — Trump 25.80% = D+ 45.99
Millbrae: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% — Trump 29.34% = D+ 38.97

FLIPS (2016-2020)
None

SWINGS (2016-2020)*
Hillsborough: D+ 06.90
Atherton: D+ 05.68
Woodside: D+ 05.00
San Carlos: D+ 04.78
Belmont: D+ 04.39
Portola Valley: D+ 04.26
Redwood City: D+ 03.83
Half Moon Bay: D+ 03.48
Foster City: D+ 03.27
Menlo Park: D+ 02.29
Burlingame: D+ 02.18
San Mateo: D+ 01.07
Pacifica: D+ 00.19
Brisbane: D+ 00.13
Millbrae: R+ 01.29
San Bruno: R+ 01.51
South San Francisco: R+ 04.29
East Palo Alto: R+ 06.38
Daly City: R+ 07.99
Colma: R+ 09.86
_{*Includes write-ins by municipalities for both 2016 and 2020}

The R swings in the more Latino and more Asian cities (GOP stronghold Hillsborough notwithstanding) look ominous until you realize they were still mostly over 75% Biden. Colma (smaller suburb just outside SF, necropolis, 70% Latino + Asian) had the largest R swing for some reason.

Not sure if this might explain some of the swings among Municipalities with a higher % of Latinos and Asian-Americans in the Silicon Valley Area (Which has actually not only stretched completely up the Peninsula, but even when I was living in South Bay in the early 2010s we had people commuting from "The City" (SF for those of you not familiar with the Regional terminology) to work in the Tech Sector, we had the tech sector even creeping up the East Shores of the Bay as well:

The COVID-19 shutdowns and what has now effectively for many employers become "permanent remote working for Tech Workers", has effectively created "permanent unemployment" for many workers at Corporate Facilities, including Food Service Workers in Campus Cafeterias, Custodial Workers, and similar employees in "service sector occupations", which previously could have easily skipped to another job across the street as skilled workers in their areas of expertise.

The workers in those Tech Facilities support functions are effectively now completely unemployed, as the tech sector which initially was covering the cost to their contract service providers during the 1st wave of COVID-19 shutdown, is now no longer covering the paychecks of the contract service workers.

These workers tend to skew more heavily Latino, African-American, and Asian-American within the South Bay.

East Palo Alto swings are likely explained by COVID-19 shutdowns, as are potentially whatever precinct level results we might find from looking at precinct level results in working-class Latino Communities in San Jose.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Not sure if this might explain some of the swings among Municipalities with a higher % of Latinos and Asian-Americans in the Silicon Valley Area (Which has actually not only stretched completely up the Peninsula, but even when I was living in South Bay in the early 2010s we had people commuting from "The City" (SF for those of you not familiar with the Regional terminology) to work in the Tech Sector, we had the tech sector even creeping up the East Shores of the Bay as well:

The COVID-19 shutdowns and what has now effectively for many employers become "permanent remote working for Tech Workers", has effectively created "permanent unemployment" for many workers at Corporate Facilities, including Food Service Workers in Campus Cafeterias, Custodial Workers, and similar employees in "service sector occupations", which previously could have easily skipped to another job across the street as skilled workers in their areas of expertise.

The workers in those Tech Facilities support functions are effectively now completely unemployed, as the tech sector which initially was covering the cost to their contract service providers during the 1st wave of COVID-19 shutdown, is now no longer covering the paychecks of the contract service workers.

These workers tend to skew more heavily Latino, African-American, and Asian-American within the South Bay.

East Palo Alto swings are likely explained by COVID-19 shutdowns, as are potentially whatever precinct level results we might find from looking at precinct level results in working-class Latino Communities in San Jose.

This checks out with my personal experience working on similar campus sites. Lots of foreign-born and nonwhite service sector employees, although not all of them are eligible voters.

[jimrtex]

I know somewhere there was a list of how each municipality voted for president but cannot seem to find it.  Does someone have link?  Looks like from preliminary map, Biden gained in heavily white areas and even flipped a few municipalities like Brea, but also Trump gained in some areas, particularly areas with large Vietnamese community like Westminster.  Be interested if data is available.  I know California once everything is counted will provide this.

The SOS eventually will get around to posting a breakdown by city. After the 2016 election it was was published on March 24, 2017.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are some more results from plurality/majority Asian cities in the Bay Area that I’ve been able to find. (Write-ins included in all the percentages!) Looks like all of them swung to Trump with the exception of Foster City. Milpitas had the biggest swing at R+ 14.35! What happened there?!

Cupertino (63.15%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 74.08% — Trump 19.98% = D+ 54.10   
2020: Biden 75.00% — Trump 22.90% = D+ 52.10
SWING: R+ 02.00

Milpitas (61.85%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 72.99% — Trump 21.16% = D+ 51.83
2020: Biden 67.93% — Trump 30.45% = D+ 37.48
SWING: R+ 14.35

Daly City (55.09%) San Mateo County
2016: Clinton 79.61% — Trump 15.78% = D+ 63.83
2020: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
SWING: R+ 07.99

Union City (50.42%) Alameda County
2016: Clinton 77.94% — Trump 16.57% = D+ 61.37
2020: Biden 75.35% — Trump 22.96% = D+ 52.39
SWING: R+ 08.98

Fremont (50.30%) Alameda County
Will update this later once numbers are crunched. A big city = more numbers to crunch!

Hercules (44.89%) Contra Costa County
2016: Clinton 78.97% — Trump 15.58% = D+ 63.39
2020: Biden 78.50% — Trump 20.11% = D+ 58.39
SWING: R+ 05.00

Foster City (44.79%) San Mateo County
2016: Clinton 72.69% — Trump 21.61% = D+ 51.08
2020: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
SWING: D+ 03.27

Millbrae (42.52%) San Mateo County
2016: Clinton 69.43% — Trump 24.88% = D+ 44.55
2020: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
SWING: R+ 01.29

Sunnyvale (40.70%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 74.39% — Trump 18.29% = D+ 56.10
2020: Biden 76.66% — Trump 20.93% = D+ 55.73
SWING: R+ 00.37

Santa Clara (37.38%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 72.45% — Trump 20.22% = D+ 52.23
2020: Biden 74.38% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 50.83
SWING: R+ 01.40

South San Francisco (36.02%) San Mateo County
2016: Clinton 77.57% — Trump 17.63% = D+ 59.94
2020: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
SWING: R+ 04.29

American Canyon (32.18%) Napa County
2016: Clinton 70.70% — Trump 22.52% = D+ 48.18
2020: Biden 71.38% — Trump 26.65% = D+ 44.73
SWING: R+ 03.45

San Leandro (29.34%) Alameda County
2016: Clinton 77.25% — Trump 16.19% = D+ 61.06   
2020: Biden 77.14% — Trump 20.88% = D+ 56.26
SWING: R+ 04.80

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Here are some more results from plurality/majority Asian cities in the Bay Area that I’ve been able to find. (Write-ins included in all the percentages!) Looks like all of them swung to Trump with the exception of Foster City. Milpitas had the biggest swing at R+ 14.35! What happened there?!

Milpitas (61.85%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 72.99% — Trump 21.16% = D+ 51.83
2020: Biden 67.93% — Trump 30.45% = D+ 37.48
SWING: R+ 14.35

Probably some combination of fallout from the COVID-19 lockdowns, very good fake news proliferation, and low levels of social trust due to an unusually ethnically diverse population. Milpitas is 67% Asian according to Statistical Atlas, and it has almost the same number of Filipinos, Vietnamese, Chinese, and Indians (source: https://statisticalatlas.com/place/California/Milpitas/Ancestry)

It’s demographically more similar to my NationStates main than any other city in the US, if not the world (maybe there’s a better match in Australia?)

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are some more results from plurality/majority Asian cities in the Bay Area that I’ve been able to find. (Write-ins included in all the percentages!) Looks like all of them swung to Trump with the exception of Foster City. Milpitas had the biggest swing at R+ 14.35! What happened there?!

Milpitas (61.85%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 72.99% — Trump 21.16% = D+ 51.83
2020: Biden 67.93% — Trump 30.45% = D+ 37.48
SWING: R+ 14.35

Probably some combination of fallout from the COVID-19 lockdowns, very good fake news proliferation, and low levels of social trust due to an unusually ethnically diverse population. Milpitas is 67% Asian according to Statistical Atlas, and it has almost the same number of Filipinos, Vietnamese, Chinese, and Indians (source: https://statisticalatlas.com/place/California/Milpitas/Ancestry)

It’s demographically more similar to my NationStates main than any other city in the US, if not the world (maybe there’s a better match in Australia?)

Thanks, Khuzifenq. Yeah, the percentages I have in my post are a little outdated (I used the 2010 Census data). I’m now very curious as to whether the Asian communities in Los Angeles County had similar swings to Trump, but as I mentioned in an earlier post in this thread, LA County doesn’t publish write-in results by municipalities like the aforementioned counties do. Write-ins were much, much smaller in 2020 (basically insignificant) compared to 2016 where you have an unusually high number of write-ins that can skew the percentages, margins of victory, and ultimately the swings. In some counties that do publish their write-ins by municipalities, in 2016 you had write-ins as a whole finishing ahead of Jill Stein in fourth place; that’s why I take the LACounty results with a grain of salt. Surely somebody out there in Atlas has to have these 2016 write-in numbers. 😩

[E-Dawg]

Fountain Valley in Orange County appears to be a McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump city. Westminster came close, voting McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump.