2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

Nothing says "man of the people" like a slickly produced announcement video that probably cost at least half a million dollars even before the consulting firm's profit.

This is an ongoing trend, especially with grifters. They release these sleek videos that go "viral" that are kind... antithetical to what they are "talking" about

[Brittain33]

At any rate, given the midterm climate, reapportionment shifts and once the GOP redraws the suburbs since they're no longer GOP strongholds like in 2011, Democrats losing a dozen seats seems perfectly realistic even if we win by the same PV margin as in 2020.

But this 2020 scenario has only really come to pass in Georgia. In Texas, Arizona, North Carolina the blue districts have gotten much lighter blue but very few have flipped.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1422584061671968770?s=19

[MT Treasurer]

*SNIP*

DCCC shared new polling that showed Dems falling behind Rs by **6 points** on a generic ballot in battleground districts.

Still, Maloney and his senior aides insist it's not over yet, urging Dems to make a major change to their messaging about Biden's ultra-popular agenda.

Yes, they’re about to lose the House because the agenda of this D trifecta is "ultra-popular." Maybe the best solution would be to talk more about the For the People Act.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1422584061671968770

DCCC shared new polling that showed Dems falling behind Rs by **6 points** on a generic ballot in battleground districts.

Still, Maloney and his senior aides insist it's not over yet, urging Dems to make a major change to their messaging about Biden's ultra-popular agenda.

Yes, they’re about to lose the House because the agenda of this D trifecta is ultra-popular.

This a pretty disingenuous post.  Maloney said they needed to change the messaging regarding Biden’s agenda in order to turn things around, not that they were losing because of Biden’s agenda.  The consensus has always been they were likely to lose the House absent redistricting reform. 

[wbrocks67]

Truly incredible that most of the Republican party supported overturning the election and has done nothing about the 1/6 insurrection and voters are still willing to vote them back into leadership. Truly amazing.

[Brittain33]

This blows and “messaging” isn’t going to change it.

[tjstarling]

Truly incredible that most of the Republican party supported overturning the election and has done nothing about the 1/6 insurrection and voters are still willing to vote them back into leadership. Truly amazing.

Is it though? This county is full of awful people on ,yes, all sides of the ideology spectrum (though certainly more concentrated within one party). We really need to stop pretending that people are inherently sensible and good. This country is full of selfish people who constantly think they’re victims. That’s all that works in politics - playing to one’s sense of victimhood. It’s why delusions that M4A or even simple progressive goals are actually popular in this country when the rubber meets the road (I.e., when actually considered legislatively as opposed to in the abstract as polling questions or campaign slogans) is outright silly. People in this country literally only care about what helps them and any policy that contributes to equality is just one more thing they add to the list to feel like they’re being disadvantaged or victimized over.

Veep was really a great show and one line really reflects the true views we should all have of the people of this country - “I’ve met some people, some real people, and I gotta tell ya, a lot of them are f**king idiots.”

[Devils30]

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.

[wbrocks67]

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.

The thing with this argument is that Republicans do the same thing, and even worse, with members like Greene and Gaetz, but for some reason, pundits and others don't see them as arbitroses like AOC?

[Devils30]

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.

The thing with this argument is that Republicans do the same thing, and even worse, with members like Greene and Gaetz, but for some reason, pundits and others don't see them as arbitroses like AOC?

A lot of reporters are from NYC and give AOC credibility that MTG would never get from the mainstream media. Dems have to be aware of the way this wing of the party has access to top institutions that the militant right doesn't.

[ElectionsGuy]

The problem isn't Biden, it's the Dems in Congress who consider themselves "the future" who have an ideology far to the left of the median voter. It turns away a portion of very gettable people for the Dems who aren't interested in AOC's version of America.

The thing with this argument is that Republicans do the same thing, and even worse, with members like Greene and Gaetz, but for some reason, pundits and others don't see them as arbitroses like AOC?

Do you not watch MSNBC, or CNN? They are constantly lashing out at Greene and Gaetz and pretending they represent the entire Republican Party.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys the Dems are nervous and think they're losing ground but they also want you to know their agenda is 'ultra popular'. Make sense?

[Brittain33]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate, given the midterm climate, reapportionment shifts and once the GOP redraws the suburbs since they're no longer GOP strongholds like in 2011, Democrats losing a dozen seats seems perfectly realistic even if we win by the same PV margin as in 2020.

But this 2020 scenario has only really come to pass in Georgia. In Texas, Arizona, North Carolina the blue districts have gotten much lighter blue but very few have flipped.

I wouldn't focus too much on the shape, orientation or margins (colors) as it was just a quick 2-minute example of what we've seen throughout many states over the past few years (suburban areas going D that were R terrain 10 years ago). In relevant locales, GOP will likely carve these areas up, adding inner-suburbs to urban districts and outer-suburbs to rural districts; the process may result in an extra CD here and there for Democrats compared to 2011 but is otherwise net gain for GOP nationally.

[SnowLabrador]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

That probably wouldn't help them much. 2016 and to a lesser extent 2020 showed that people don't vote based on abortion policy. For 2016 was the election to save Roe v. Wade, and Democrats dropped the ball, losing to Donald effing Trump of all people.

[Brittain33]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

That probably wouldn't help them much. 2016 and to a lesser extent 2020 showed that people don't vote based on abortion policy. For 2016 was the election to save Roe v. Wade, and Democrats dropped the ball, losing to Donald effing Trump of all people.

I agree that it hasn’t helped Dems in the past, but I think abortion literally becoming illegal in ~20 states and Republicans proposing national Prohibitionist laws with the approval of the Supreme Court is a new scenario which will open wallets and get volunteers on the streets.

[SnowLabrador]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

That probably wouldn't help them much. 2016 and to a lesser extent 2020 showed that people don't vote based on abortion policy. For 2016 was the election to save Roe v. Wade, and Democrats dropped the ball, losing to Donald effing Trump of all people.

I agree that it hasn’t helped Dems in the past, but I think abortion literally becoming illegal in ~20 states and Republicans proposing national Prohibitionist laws with the approval of the Supreme Court is a new scenario which will open wallets and get volunteers on the streets.

My prediction is that Roe v. Wade is overturned, the GOP wins big in 2022, the media spins it as Americans supporting abortion bans, and then we go full Gilead.

[Roll Roons]

The only thing that is likely to help the Dems now is a massive shift in abortion policy toward prohibition after a Supreme Court case.

That probably wouldn't help them much. 2016 and to a lesser extent 2020 showed that people don't vote based on abortion policy. For 2016 was the election to save Roe v. Wade, and Democrats dropped the ball, losing to Donald effing Trump of all people.

I agree that it hasn’t helped Dems in the past, but I think abortion literally becoming illegal in ~20 states and Republicans proposing national Prohibitionist laws with the approval of the Supreme Court is a new scenario which will open wallets and get volunteers on the streets.

My prediction is that Roe v. Wade is overturned, the GOP wins big in 2022, the media spins it as Americans supporting abortion bans, and then we go full Gilead.

You seriously need to seek help.

[Adam Griffin]

Politics is an exercise in self-interest. Roughly 10% of Americans have had an abortion, a disproportionate share of them will be non-voters, and of those who do vote, it's fairly safe to assume that the vast majority have locked-in political opinions that won't change regardless of what happens on the issue.

It's hard to think of a social or cultural issue that has less of an impact on voting behavior than abortion. Even immigration possibly affects a larger segment of the populace.

[Brittain33]

It's hard to think of a social or cultural issue that has less of an impact on voting behavior than abortion.

That view seems inconsistent with the behavior of the parties on this issue and their choice to repeatedly campaign and legislate on the issue at the state level.

[Matty]

QPAC has dems 45 Reps 44 in newest poll for 2022

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1422984866866606082?s=19

How Quinnipiac maintains its A rating is beyond me..

[Devils30]

QPAC has dems 45 Reps 44 in newest poll for 2022

Good poll for Rs but generic ballot is really converging on approval. If Biden can be at 52% or higher next year, Ds can hold House.

[SnowLabrador]

So like R+4? I guess 1/6 helped the Republicans; we're living in Weimar America.