2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[😥]

https://twitter.com/lorisaine/status/1460315869528080388?t=oMGF3UT4X0YYBp5w8szEL...

Looks like we can get another MTG/Lauren Boebert in Congress  and again from Colorado

[MT Treasurer]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

I think Republicans could blow swingy moderate New Hampshire with Bolduc, but besides that I agree wholeheartedly.

I disagree with NH being all that "swingy" and "moderate," but yes, the NH seat is the one where they’ll need to ride a big wave for an upset (and even then, it will be a narrow win), but even that’s looking far more likely now than it did a few months ago. It’s certainly hilarious that people actually considered NH the "most likely Senate flip" for most of the year (even with Sununu or Ayotte, it’s a state that’s fairly reliably blue at the federal level except in massive Republican wave environments). While it’s true that Hassan is a fairly "weak incumbent," these things really don’t matter that much in blue state federal races.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1461013026023383048?s=20

[Duke of York]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

[Mr.Phips]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

At this point Dems should just try and lose the Presidency.  The presidency is of no use if you are just going to be a permanent minority in congress.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

At this point Dems should just try and lose the Presidency.  The presidency is of no use if you are just going to be a permanent minority in congress.

DS aren't gonna lose the Prez and let insurrectionist Trump back into office

[kwabbit]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

I think Republicans could blow swingy moderate New Hampshire with Bolduc, but besides that I agree wholeheartedly.

I disagree with NH being all that "swingy" and "moderate," but yes, the NH seat is the one where they’ll need to ride a big wave for an upset (and even then, it will be a narrow win), but even that’s looking far more likely now than it did a few months ago. It’s certainly hilarious that people actually considered NH the "most likely Senate flip" for most of the year (even with Sununu or Ayotte, it’s a state that’s fairly reliably blue at the federal level except in massive Republican wave environments). While it’s true that Hassan is a fairly "weak incumbent," these things really don’t matter that much in blue state federal races.

I tend to think that NH is less Dem than most. Trump came very close to winning it in 2016; it even voted two points to the right of the nation. It was a great fit for a big swing towards Biden, but it's not so educated that it should really trend D long term. NH is elastic at least from my perspective. That doesn't mean it'll swing 20 points for each point the nation swings, but waves can have a more pronounced effect on its results, although popular figures have powerful incumbency. Ayotte had a big victory in 2010 and the GOP did quite well in 2014, even with Shaheen at the top of the ticket.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will keep the Senate it's a 304 map anyways, WI, PA SEN ARE LEAN TO we don't know about NC or OH SEN there isn't any polling but TX and FL are gone since Biden poor performance on Border Beto, Crist and Demings are down by double digits

House is still in play, Nunes, Issa, Garcia, 4/9 Rs can be Redistricted out in California, IL and NY and Pelosi said she is counting on her Speakership or Jeffries on CALI, Mccarthy is very unpopular here in Cali, here at home since he blocked the Insurrectionists Commission

Josh Mandel, Vance and Pat McCrory aren't so dunks, like Rubio or Grientans are but are they Favored yes because it's a 304 map, but we don't know til Aug 22

[Duke of York]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

Its only recently we've had these massive swings and seen the party who wins the presidency punished for it. Democrats had the House from 1954 to 1994. It seems very unlikely either party will have a long term majority for a long time.

[kwabbit]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

Its only recently we've had these massive swings and seen the party who wins the presidency punished for it. Democrats had the House from 1954 to 1994. It seems very unlikely either party will have a long term majority for a long time.

Anti incumbent party swings still happened, it’s just that the Democrats had the entire South guaranteed and the two parties fought over the rest. If the parties followed the liberal vs conservative mold they do now those house flips would’ve happened.

[kwabbit]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

Case in point.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1461013026023383048?s=20

In no scenario do Independents go Republican by 10 and Dems win overall by 4. YouGov's polling has and continues to misrepresent the electorate.

[Thunder98]

VA-7: Amanda Chase is in

https://Senator Amanda Chase (@AmandaChaseVA) Tweeted: It’s official. I’m runnin...

[Mr.Phips]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

It’s been sustainable for decades. It wouldn’t be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

Its only recently we've had these massive swings and seen the party who wins the presidency punished for it. Democrats had the House from 1954 to 1994. It seems very unlikely either party will have a long term majority for a long time.

Anti incumbent party swings still happened, it’s just that the Democrats had the entire South guaranteed and the two parties fought over the rest. If the parties followed the liberal vs conservative mold they do now those house flips would’ve happened.

During the 1954-1994 period, Dems also usually had at least 20 House members who were as conservative as most Republicans if not more so.

[S019]

VA-7: Amanda Chase is in

https://Senator Amanda Chase (@AmandaChaseVA) Tweeted: It’s official. I’m runnin...

Perhaps the one person who could blow a redrawn version of this seat

[Senator Incitatus]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

We're getting to the point where a 60R-40D Senate in 2025 looks more likely than not.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Asymmetric polarization will be the end of this country, I swear.

Is polarization that asymmetric? This gets repeated extremely often on this forum but as far as I can tell it’s just another excuse when Democrats aren’t winning. Democrats won the House vote by 8 in 2018, was that asymmetric polarization from the Republicans harming them? No, it was just the environment shifting. Trump’s approval rating at this point in his presidency was 37%. It’s not that Democrats are being weak by not being partisan enough, it’s that a year into a presidents term is when the base is naturally least involved. That problem affected Trump, but I would wager in January 2024 whoever the Democratic nominee is will have plenty of intra party support.

Yes simply for the fact that Trump with 37% approval resulted in 40 house seats but gaining 3 senate seat but Biden at 37% will result in 50+ House seats and losing 4-5 senate seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

We're getting to the point where a 60R-40D Senate in 2025 looks more likely than not.

Are you serious, D's lead in all the swing state battleground stop trying to make this into an R sweep

[kwabbit]

Asymmetric polarization will be the end of this country, I swear.

Is polarization that asymmetric? This gets repeated extremely often on this forum but as far as I can tell it’s just another excuse when Democrats aren’t winning. Democrats won the House vote by 8 in 2018, was that asymmetric polarization from the Republicans harming them? No, it was just the environment shifting. Trump’s approval rating at this point in his presidency was 37%. It’s not that Democrats are being weak by not being partisan enough, it’s that a year into a presidents term is when the base is naturally least involved. That problem affected Trump, but I would wager in January 2024 whoever the Democratic nominee is will have plenty of intra party support.

Yes simply for the fact that Trump with 37% approval resulted in 40 house seats but gaining 3 senate seat but Biden at 37% will result in 50+ House seats and losing 4-5 senate seats

Trump's approval was -11 in November 2018. If Biden's approval is at -11 in November 2022, we might see a gain of 30-45 seats. But that's not asymmetric polarization as much as Republican natural geographic bias/gerrymandering in the House. Even if Biden is at -11, I would be surprised if Republicans can reach a +8 national vote like 2018 House Dems achieved.

I don't see that much evidence Dem-leaning voters are more likely to vote for the GOP than vice versa. If anything, it seems like this idea comes from the psychological bias to believe that one's position is more popular than it is. Dem avatars are leading themselves to believe that the country is perpetually ripe for a Democratic landslide, just that it lays dormant because of Democratic incompetence. The reality is that the country is more evenly divided, perhaps with a narrow Democratic edge, and our elections reflect that.

[Mr.Phips]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

We're getting to the point where a 60R-40D Senate in 2025 looks more likely than not.

Likely would require a Republican Presidential victory.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1461326486108004361?t=d6j-jomz-T1Nm9gCuKH...

[SnowLabrador]

If Quinnipiac is finding R+8, we're in for a shellacking worse than 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

If Quinnipiac is finding R+8, we're in for a shellacking worse than 2010.

Democrats are basically a non party below the Presidency.

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1461326486108004361?t=d6j-jomz-T1Nm9gCuKH...

Here’s how NV-SEN and AZ-SEN are still Lean D: