2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Virginiá]

I don't really see any reason to believe that. Decades worth of midterms show that middling or underwater approval ratings will almost surely result in the incumbent WH party losing seats in midterms, which in itself means they lose the House popular vote - usually comfortably. Right now, Biden's approvals are trending down, and while that doesn't mean they will stay on that trend, I think it's more likely than not given recent history and the hyper-partisan national environment.

At any rate, it really could be 10% now and that doesn't matter at all because the midterm elections are over a year away.

[Matty]

My view is that repubs win the house pop vote by a point of 2, and flip about 17 seats

They maintain their margins with WWC, make some inroads with the suburbs, and lose some ground with Latinos

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are paying attention to Generic ballots 500 days til the Election check back Oct 2022 when it matters

[AncestralDemocrat.]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

[SnowLabrador]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

[MT Treasurer]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

So like R+4? I guess 1/6 helped the Republicans; we're living in Weimar America.

My prediction is that Roe v. Wade is overturned, the GOP wins big in 2022, the media spins it as Americans supporting abortion bans, and then we go full Gilead.

Like most other rhetorical devices, 'hyperbole' quickly loses its effectiveness when not employed sparingly. I don’t know why you’re doing this, but it’s really tiresome.

[Devils30]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Not a great poll for Dems but hardly a 2010 style wave in the making, lets see what happens after infrastructure is signed.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1429457202012635139

Some of these races included multiple Democratic and/or Republican candidates running at the same time in what is known as a jungle election. If we focus only on non-jungle races in data compiled by Ethan Chen, Republicans are outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by 3 points.

Either way you look at it, there has been a slight Republican overperformance compared to where things stood last year.

Such a change is not too large. Remember, too, that Trump lost nationally by 4 points, so a 4-point swing toward Republicans suggests a neutral national environment.

But this would likely be enough for Republicans to take back the US House of Representatives, especially considering that they are in a good position for redistricting.
What really jumps out, though, is the trend.

When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.

Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.

Importantly, the shift in favor of Republicans in special election results comes as other indicators suggest that the environment is getting better for the GOP.

The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot is down to an average 2 points over the last month, after being 4 points for much of the year.

Biden's job approval rating has been tilting downward. His net approval (approval - disapproval) rating is only about +3 points at this point. It had almost always been +10 points or above before July.

Combined, however, these numbers tell a clear story of Republicans picking up ground.

The story may become even clearer a month from now in the California recall gubernatorial election. You might think of it as the biggest non-regularly scheduled election of the year. Biden won California by nearly 30 points.

A Democratic governor in California shouldn't be recalled or be close to being recalled, if Democrats are doing well nationally. The polling suggests that the race could, in fact, be close.

[ElectionsGuy]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

Democracy means your people can be voted out too.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

Democracy means your people can be voted out too.

His "people" don't try to steal elections and deter people from voting "green" avatar. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, the Election is 500 days away, if that's the case why did Rubio o and DeSantis lead go from 20 to 3 pts after AFGHANISTAN

People get so caught up on polling and Trump was a 43% Prez and was impeached twice

[wbrocks67]

Harry's argument is kind of flimsy IMO. It seems there is a lot of rewriting history, like the NM-01 race didn't happen in particular.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs keep going by approval ratings and he is near where he was in 2020 and it's not even 2022 and far better than Trump 49(48 and Trump never made it above 50

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1429457202012635139

Some of these races included multiple Democratic and/or Republican candidates running at the same time in what is known as a jungle election. If we focus only on non-jungle races in data compiled by Ethan Chen, Republicans are outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by 3 points.

Either way you look at it, there has been a slight Republican overperformance compared to where things stood last year.

Such a change is not too large. Remember, too, that Trump lost nationally by 4 points, so a 4-point swing toward Republicans suggests a neutral national environment.

But this would likely be enough for Republicans to take back the US House of Representatives, especially considering that they are in a good position for redistricting.
What really jumps out, though, is the trend.

When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.

Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.

Importantly, the shift in favor of Republicans in special election results comes as other indicators suggest that the environment is getting better for the GOP.

The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot is down to an average 2 points over the last month, after being 4 points for much of the year.

Biden's job approval rating has been tilting downward. His net approval (approval - disapproval) rating is only about +3 points at this point. It had almost always been +10 points or above before July.

Combined, however, these numbers tell a clear story of Republicans picking up ground.

The story may become even clearer a month from now in the California recall gubernatorial election. You might think of it as the biggest non-regularly scheduled election of the year. Biden won California by nearly 30 points.

A Democratic governor in California shouldn't be recalled or be close to being recalled, if Democrats are doing well nationally. The polling suggests that the race could, in fact, be close.

Tough talk from a party that won in 2016 on Russia WikiLeaks and Benghazi and havent really done well except for 2, Elections 2010/2014 on during Tea Party revolt and dominant Speakers Ryan and Boehner, McCarty has a 15% Approvals like Boehner did when he left office


D's still have time for a Blue wave and get DC Statehood

[Person Man]

My view is that repubs win the house pop vote by a point of 2, and flip about 17 seats

They maintain their margins with WWC, make some inroads with the suburbs, and lose some ground with Latinos

That actually seems reasonable.

[Sir Mohamed]

Interesting report about Afghanistan and the midterms I'd like to share here:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429591518017429505

Republican efforts to saddle the Democrats with fallout from the fall of Kabul won't necessarily fly with voters — or instill fears in midterm candidates.

Why it matters: Axios traveled to Virginia’s 7th District last week, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for re-election in a bellwether district. She focused solely on selling President Biden’s stimulus package and the bipartisan infrastructure deal still working its way through Congress.

    In conversations the congresswoman had with her Richmond-area constituents, Afghanistan didn't come up.
    She drew greater reaction for her efforts to bring broadband to rural areas.
    “We might not have a Taliban, but with the Capitol insurrection and the partisanship, we don’t have a government that functions,” said Carena Ives, a 53-year-old restaurant owner. “We need to focus on home.”

What they're saying: It’s just one piece of evidence, albeit anecdotal, that Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal may not be the political cudgel Republicans hope for the midterms.

    “I don’t blame Trump. I don’t blame Biden, because he continued the withdrawal. We can’t perfect the world,” said Annie Tobey, 61.
    Elyse Shoenig, 75, whose late husband was a Vietnam veteran, said when she saw the images from the fall of Kabul, she was immediately reminded of Saigon.
    Asked whether it will affect the way she votes, she replied, “Not yet. But I will need to see the situation play out.”

...

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

I guess you could make a Northwest NJ vote sink for NJ-5 but the Dems (with likely majority on the commission) will probably make it safer if anything. Of course he could then lose to a left wing challenger if it gets a lot bluer.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

Gottheimer, Costa, and Schrader are the only ones who Dems actually have the direct power to mess with in redistricting, unless I'm mistaken.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1429956048513798146

Anonymous source so take with a huge grain of salt.

Probably Gottheimer?

Gottheimer, Costa, and Schrader are the only ones who Dems actually have the direct power to mess with in redistricting, unless I'm mistaken.

Ed Case could probably be primaried by a non-white Democrat primaried with minimal difficulty and Cueller is already facing a serious primary challenge.  Gonzalez might be vulnerable to a primary challenge too.  DCCC could also cut off Murphy and Golden in 2022.  Ultimately though, the real enemy here is Biden.  It’s pretty clear imo that he’s on team Gottheimer even if he knows better than to explicitly say so in public.  This never even would have happened if Biden took a vocal, public stand in support of the two-track strategy and went to bat for it while this was starting to unfold.  

The idea that Biden can’t strong-arm nine congressmen and two Senators from his own party into towing the line on something this important if he were truly inclined to do so is beyond laughable.  Look what happened with the COVID stimulus bill.  Sinema hardly made a peep and Manchin did what he was told with minimal concessions.  

Either Biden is an incompetent buffoon or he’s deliberately being really passive as this unfolds b/c he opposes linking the bills (and wants a $1.5 - $2 trillion reconciliation bill).  Does anyone really believe Josh Gottheimer pulls a stunt like this on his own initiative?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1431293258223718403

[Non Swing Voter]

Interesting report about Afghanistan and the midterms I'd like to share here:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429591518017429505

Republican efforts to saddle the Democrats with fallout from the fall of Kabul won't necessarily fly with voters — or instill fears in midterm candidates.

Why it matters: Axios traveled to Virginia’s 7th District last week, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for re-election in a bellwether district. She focused solely on selling President Biden’s stimulus package and the bipartisan infrastructure deal still working its way through Congress.

    In conversations the congresswoman had with her Richmond-area constituents, Afghanistan didn't come up.
    She drew greater reaction for her efforts to bring broadband to rural areas.
    “We might not have a Taliban, but with the Capitol insurrection and the partisanship, we don’t have a government that functions,” said Carena Ives, a 53-year-old restaurant owner. “We need to focus on home.”

What they're saying: It’s just one piece of evidence, albeit anecdotal, that Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal may not be the political cudgel Republicans hope for the midterms.

    “I don’t blame Trump. I don’t blame Biden, because he continued the withdrawal. We can’t perfect the world,” said Annie Tobey, 61.
    Elyse Shoenig, 75, whose late husband was a Vietnam veteran, said when she saw the images from the fall of Kabul, she was immediately reminded of Saigon.
    Asked whether it will affect the way she votes, she replied, “Not yet. But I will need to see the situation play out.”

...

Yeah literally no-one is going to vote on this issue.  Very few people even in Northern Virginia are going to vote on this issue, despite Matty's hopes and dreams that it's on the top of everyone's minds and will propel Youngkin to victory.

[Matty]

It may not, but you can’t deny there has been political fallout

538 tracker shows a clear trend and the polling done on the the issue has been horrific for Biden

70%+ think the withdrawal has been done poorly, and that was before the troops were blown up

I continue to be perplexed why you are putting your credibility on the line here.

There is, to date, zero evidence that 2022 is going to be an abnormal midterm.

It’s much safer to err on the side of history than on theories that originated in your own brain

Harry enten has a great article on cnn now with hard data showing why 2022 is looking like a likely house takeover for GOp

Senate is a toss up

[wbrocks67]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It may not, but you can’t deny there has been political fallout

538 tracker shows a clear trend and the polling done on the the issue has been horrific for Biden

70%+ think the withdrawal has been done poorly, and that was before the troops were blown up

I continue to be perplexed why you are putting your credibility on the line here.

There is, to date, zero evidence that 2022 is going to be an abnormal midterm.

It’s much safer to err on the side of history than on theories that originated in your own brain

Harry enten has a great article on cnn now with hard data showing why 2022 is looking like a likely house takeover for GOp

Senate is a toss up

Yeah, Yeah,, blah we have 500 days til Election and they are getting crushed in VA and Cali Election abd we supposed to believe they're gonna win and the last time they won was 2014