2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress one is weird, basically this last one comes down to them assuming there's going to be major R turnout.

Their last poll had R+4 overall, but Rs winning Indies by 11 (52-41). They had about equal # of Ds and Rs sampled for turnout.

This last one has R+4 overall again, but Ds now winning Indies by 4 (52-48). It remains stable overall because now they have a R+4 sample edge.

So essentially comes down to turnout, if GOP actually has a huge turnout edge.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

Both RCP and 538 show a R advantage in the Generic ballot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Huh. I guess I haven't seen as many GCB polls as I should have. Ds better hope the (likely miniscule) R advantage (if it indeed manifests) is inefficient this November, wasted on blowout margins in rurals.

There's also Split Ticket's GCB aggregate, which includes only nonpartisan pollsters.  It's currently at D+0.2 (47.1-46.9).

https://split-ticket.org/2022-nonpartisan-generic-ballot-aggregate/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

Both RCP and 538 show a R advantage in the Generic ballot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Huh. I guess I haven't seen as many GCB polls as I should have. Ds better hope the (likely miniscule) R advantage (if it indeed manifests) is inefficient this November, wasted on blowout margins in rurals.

There's also Split Ticket's GCB aggregate, which includes only nonpartisan pollsters.  It's currently at D+0.2 (47.1-46.9).

https://split-ticket.org/2022-nonpartisan-generic-ballot-aggregate/

This is the first time I see their aggregator. Thanks for bringing them to my attention.
It shows how a lot of R polls are kind of boosting them in the aggregators more broadly. I would not go as far as to say that there's a conspiracy on Rs part to boost themselves in the averages, but they do seem to be making conclusions regarding R turnout that may or may not bear out...

[Gracile]

Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

[soundchaser]

Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

Those Senate ratings are baffling. CCM wins while Warnock loses on the night? Hard to see it happening.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

Those Senate ratings are baffling. CCM wins while Warnock loses on the night? Hard to see it happening.

Warnock losing on election night is a...bold call.

[Roll Roons]

I would have had KS as Lean D, kept GA as a tossup and maybe moved NV to Lean R, though I get that they deferred to Ralston for the last one.

[Gracile]

Those Senate predictions seem way too bullish for Democrats given some of their House calls in AZ, PA, and NV.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

Those Senate ratings are baffling. CCM wins while Warnock loses on the night? Hard to see it happening.

Warnock losing on election night is a...bold call.

I didn't see anything in their prediction specifying that Walker would win on election night.  In fact in their description, they predict his win is "a little likelier than not, on Tuesday or in a runoff".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

Those Senate ratings are baffling. CCM wins while Warnock loses on the night? Hard to see it happening.

Warnock losing on election night is a...bold call.

I didn't see anything in their prediction specifying that Walker would win on election night.  In fact in their description, they predict his win is "a little likelier than not, on Tuesday or in a runoff".

Egg on my face then. I didn't click the link, I merely assumed the poster in question did.
I guess I should have looked at it at length.

[soundchaser]

The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.

[Ferguson97]

[Devils30]

The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.

This would go against all logic, that Dems are winning with working class voters of all races but losing ground with college whites. If anything I expect college whites in north Fulton, Cobb to be the firewall to limit Dem losses.

[wbrocks67]

The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.

Warnock has also led most of the nonpartisan polling (Emerson, NYT/Siena, Marist) or been tied (ECU, Research, etc.) Walker has mostly only led in non-partisan polling.

[SnowLabrador]

So they have Cortez Masto winning but Warnock losing? That seems...unlikely.

[Person Man]

It could be anything tomorrow from the beginning of the of the Democratic Establishment to finally something that could rattle the GOP perhaps a tiny bit.

[kwabbit]

The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.

Their logic is that they see the GOP winning 51 seats. They were going to choose Laxalt in NV, but they don’t want to contradict Ralston so they’re choosing Walker to compensate.

[Vosem]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Data for Progress generally had a fairly strong D house effect in prior cycles (particularly 2016 and 2020 — in 2018 they were fine as I recall), but this cycle they’ve generally been one of the better polls for Republicans, and they whiffed really hard in the summer special elections.

There remains, on the night before the election itself, no actual conventional wisdom. (Even the final pundit ratings correspond to a narrow D advantage nationally in the Senate but a decently comfortable R advantage nationally in the House; at this point it’s been repeated so often I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the actual results but it would still be sort of odd if that actually happens on Election Night).

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589700815899328512

[Person Man]

I'll tell you what:

If Walker runs away with it in 24 hours, I will change my avatar to R-GA and my screen name to Lacey Lazy The Herschel Walker Coonhound. And use this as my signature:

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589700815899328512

And if it went to R/O? The Senate would be decided in January for a second time.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589700815899328512

And if it went to R/O? The Senate would be decided in January for a second time.

The run-off is in early December this year.  I'm not sure why it was in January last year (maybe because of the simultaneous special election). Tbh it seems like it should not be legal to hold a run-off after the Senate is sworn in on Jan. 3.

[MT Treasurer]

CCM = UTDH, guys. Already called it in late 2020/early 2021 (some of you may remember).

Incredibly ironic and amusing, actually — we’re having a lot of fun with this meme on Discord right now, so a sincere thank you to Jon Ralston and Sabato's Crystal Ball for making this possible by letting us in on the secret of CCM's irresistible candidate quality

Those Senate predictions seem way too bullish for Democrats given some of their House calls in AZ, PA, and NV.

I’m a Sam Peters/Jim Marchant/CCM Republican, personally....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman isn't losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI the EV favors Ds and no way Johnson is up 5 and the Gov race is tied that's OVERPOLL by pollsters on Johnson Fetterman leads by 6 in MARIST and by 1 in Research Co and if Fetterman is up 1 and CCM down 1 he has pA Lean R and CCM Lean D doesn't makes sense to me