2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316
LOL RCP is a joke

This is all a conservative journalist project, not anything serious.

Given they have Utah as lean R as well, how is it a conservative journalist project.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316
LOL RCP is a joke

This is all a conservative journalist project, not anything serious.

Given they have Utah as lean R as well, how is it a conservative journalist project.

I mean having WA as toss up is pretty clowny. While I think Lean R is also a bit silly for UT there’s reason to think that one is at least more variable than one might expect, while WA there is little reason to think Smiley can actually win.

I do think WA will have a Lean D final margin of like 6-8 now, down from the ~10 I thought it would be last week. But I’d still be beyond shocked if Smiley actually pulled it off.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316
LOL RCP is a joke

This is all a conservative journalist project, not anything serious.

Given they have Utah as lean R as well, how is it a conservative journalist project.

I mean having WA as toss up is pretty clowny. While I think Lean R is also a bit silly for UT there’s reason to think that one is at least more variable than one might expect, while WA there is little reason to think Smiley can actually win.

I do think WA will have a Lean D final margin of like 6-8 now, down from the ~10 I thought it would be last week. But I’d still be beyond shocked if Smiley actually pulled it off.

We had a vote of 2 million in August and Dems had like 57%. Not sure what has happened since to justify these polls.

[MT Treasurer]

Still some conflicting data, but based on the spending decisions by both D and R national groups and the trends in certain statewide races/polls (NY-GOV, WA-SEN, FL, etc.), I’m increasingly getting the impression that the bottom is falling out for Democrats. Not changing my prediction of a 'normal' R-leaning night (52R-48D in the Senate, ∼240R-195D in the House) yet, but I think a complete GOP sweep (54R-46D in the Senate, ∼250R-185D in the House) is a very possible outcome at this point.

[wbrocks67]

It would be deliciously hilarious if this year is somewhat a reverse of 2020 when Dems waded into areas that they thought were competitive that weren't, spent money they shouldn't have, and then realized they could've used that money for districts that actually mattered.

I don't think Brownley is actually in trouble, but it is interesting to note that the Biden #s inflate it quite a bit. The vote in the primary was only D+8.

[wbrocks67]

Still some conflicting data, but based on the spending decisions by both D and R national groups and the trends in certain statewide races/polls (NY-GOV, WA-SEN, FL, etc.), I’m increasingly getting the impression that the bottom is falling out for Democrats. Not changing my prediction of a 'normal' R-leaning night (52R-48D in the Senate, ∼240R-195D in the House) yet, but I think a complete GOP sweep (54R-46D in the Senate, ∼250R-185D in the House) is a very possible outcome at this point.

I think it also surprisingly hasn't been brought up that no one is really connected the NY-19 polling issues this summer to the NY-GOV polling now. They could be totally unrelated, but it will be interesting to look at in hindsight depending on what happens.

[Sbane]

I don't think suburban Southern California is swinging hard to the GOP in wake of Dobbs. Especially not the Thousand Oaks area nor the Ventura area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316
LOL RCP is a joke

This is all a conservative journalist project, not anything serious.

Given they have Utah as lean R as well, how is it a conservative journalist project.

RCP just rates everything remotely competitive as tossup even though we know some of those races are not really tossups. It's a shield they use to say "oh well we were right" basically no matter what.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think suburban Southern California is swinging hard to the GOP in wake of Dobbs. Especially not the Thousand Oaks area nor the Ventura area.

My grandmother lives in Thousand Oaks (a very swingy white part of CA-26). Politically, it seems remarkably stable due to the relative abundance of older people and the area generally being less transient. The people who live there generally stay there for a long time.

Brownley is not in any immediate danger; if she loses Dems are already losing like 60+ seats.

[Sbane]

I don't think suburban Southern California is swinging hard to the GOP in wake of Dobbs. Especially not the Thousand Oaks area nor the Ventura area.

My grandmother lives in Thousand Oaks (a very swingy white part of CA-26). Politically, it seems remarkably stable due to the relative abundance of older people and the area generally being less transient. The people who live there generally stay there for a long time.

Brownley is not in any immediate danger; if she loses Dems are already losing like 60+ seats.

Indeed, those are the not the sort of areas Democrats are losing ground in. The inclusion of areas like Porter Ranch and Granada Hills are why I think CA-27 is overrated for the Republicans. Even if they gain a lot of ground in the Antelope Valley, they will not do well in those suburban areas.

[Woody]

Accidentally calls em' "demo-rats" at the start too.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?cxt=HHwWgICy0bSEu4...

Even if the Republicans were to win any of these districts (they won’t) their candidates here would automatically be DOA in the next neutral election year. Especially PA-12. Idk how the Republicans would be able to hold a district that contains Pittsburgh with presidential election year turnout.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?t=1b9fNTpBNAjtUx4e...

Please don't throw me in the briar patch br'er NRCC

[Ferguson97]

Is PA-12 literally just because of the Mike Doyle name sharing?

[wbrocks67]

Is PA-12 literally just because of the Mike Doyle name sharing?

Yep

[kwabbit]

Is PA-12 literally just because of the Mike Doyle name sharing?

Mostly, but Summer Lee would likely underperform anyway. This district was unpacked and now includes a lot of working class White areas that may be less receptive to a Black progressive woman like Summer Lee. This district might have been Lee +12 if her opponent was named something else, but the naming thing is making it on the edge of competitiveness.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1587154699538546688

Hmm...

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m calling the house

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1587154699538546688

Hmm...

The only reason they doing this is because NY-25 was suprisingly close in 2014. Realistically, things are too polarized for this district to flip now.

[wbrocks67]

NRSC spending in CT. HMP spending in NY25. Maybe it's possible that both sides are making some ridiculous spending mistakes right now!

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1587245416072060928

[S019]

NRSC spending in CT. HMP spending in NY25. Maybe it's possible that both sides are making some ridiculous spending mistakes right now!

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1587245416072060928

Well we saw plenty of ridiculous spending mistakes in 2020. Even in a red wave, Blumenthal is not going to lose. This is the definition of throwing money into a fire.

[wbrocks67]

GOP is certainly getting cocky, and we saw that how worked out for Dems in 2020.

[Brittain33]

Are we getting another Selzer before Election Day?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we getting another Selzer before Election Day?

Probably.  There's usually one the weekend before Election Day.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I needed to take some time away from following all this stuff for like almost two weeks because my mental state was just imploding. Looking over what I've missed, I genuinely have no idea what to expect. The polls are dominated either by partisan firms or by groups I've never heard of that have no prior track record. There is a greater range of possible outcomes, with fairly extreme potential downside for Democrats in a worst-case scenario, than probably any election in my lifetime.

The House feels like a lost cause, probably, but beyond that I'm flying blind.

Honestly the smart move is probably just to look at whether or not the price of gas goes up or down over the next seven days, since that's the sort of thing the median voter is paying attention to even though it's something the president has little to no control over. But the median voter is oblivious to these facts.