2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

The polls suck this year. Literally anything can happen.

Maybe it's selective memory on my part, but I really don't recall another year with such extreme variance in the polls.

You also have a ton more right-wing commissioned polls/outfits popping up this year, flooding the zone with all types of results.

[kwabbit]

The polls suck this year. Literally anything can happen.

Maybe it's selective memory on my part, but I really don't recall another year with such extreme variance in the polls.

You also have a ton more right-wing commissioned polls/outfits popping up this year, flooding the zone with all types of results.

The right wing pollsters are flooding the landscape, but G Elliot Morris noted that they are actually increasing the Dem margin in 538/economist averages after the internal bias adjustment.

[wbrocks67]

The polls suck this year. Literally anything can happen.

Maybe it's selective memory on my part, but I really don't recall another year with such extreme variance in the polls.

You also have a ton more right-wing commissioned polls/outfits popping up this year, flooding the zone with all types of results.

The right wing pollsters are flooding the landscape, but G Elliot Morris noted that they are actually increasing the Dem margin in 538/economist averages after the internal bias adjustment.

Are they actually on 538 though? The more they get added, Dems averages/chances still continue to drop.

[kwabbit]

The polls suck this year. Literally anything can happen.

Maybe it's selective memory on my part, but I really don't recall another year with such extreme variance in the polls.

You also have a ton more right-wing commissioned polls/outfits popping up this year, flooding the zone with all types of results.

The right wing pollsters are flooding the landscape, but G Elliot Morris noted that they are actually increasing the Dem margin in 538/economist averages after the internal bias adjustment.

Are they actually on 538 though? The more they get added, Dems averages/chances still continue to drop.

I don’t see why it would be different since the Economist and 538 averages are similar and draw from the same polls. I guess if there’s no recent non partisan polling they could still help the GOP margin, as was the case in PA for awhile. I will note that the effect is quite small, less than a half of a percentage point in most states.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, look. I'm not gonna act like I know if any of this is right or not. But you really can't just use "oh it's just noise" when polls trend towards Democrats and then when they're trending towards Republicans then do the whole "this is real movement!"

Pretty sure whatever happens, pundits do not need a surprise Dem overperformance because it will make them look like jokes again.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1585412561717321728

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

What may be the missing final key, especially in GA, is also the 9% of voters who also are "unidentified" in terms of race right now. Wish we had more data on how they may be factoring out

I have a method for determining this (below are the outputs for the most recent elections), but a fairly rough and quick approximation can be gleaned by simply taking the under-30 GA electorate and reassigning the Other/Unknowns proportionately among the racial/ethnic groups that are explicitly identified. This is fairly effective because the vast, vast majority of Other/Unknowns are newly-registered, and obviously a very large chunk of the newly-registered are under-30.

(Note that this crude method sometimes will underestimate white and overestimate Latino/Asian voters to a degree, but you'll still arrive within the ballpark.)


(Note that the "Other" in these tables are Latino+Asian+NatAm, while the "Unknown" are the ones who are actually unidentified; I make this distinction because in SoS data, there are two groups of unidentified voters: "Other" and "Unknown". Sorry for any confusion.)

Alright, here is the above chart with gender for each year added:

[wbrocks67]

Dems wading into WA-03...

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1585383152209756161

[Roll Roons]

https://nypost.com/2022/10/26/joe-biden-urges-ny-rabbi-to-back-sean-patrick-maloney/

Biden personally called a prominent rabbi in Rockland County and asked him to endorse SPM...

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

House Majority PAC dropped $2M into NJ-05. This is weird - the new district was Biden +12, Gottheimer is an insane fundraiser, his opponent is pretty lackluster and the GOP has spent nothing here.

[MillennialModerate]

LMAO, look. I'm not gonna act like I know if any of this is right or not. But you really can't just use "oh it's just noise" when polls trend towards Democrats and then when they're trending towards Republicans then do the whole "this is real movement!"

Pretty sure whatever happens, pundits do not need a surprise Dem overperformance because it will make them look like jokes again.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1585412561717321728

The reason for that is - when polls show R’s gaining strength it lines up with the conditions in the country, the mood on the ground in most places, traditional history in mid terms, POTUS low approval numbers etc. When Dems do suspciously well in a poll it’s going against a whole bunch of evidence 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Wave is still on for the moment. The last week felt like a coordinated gaslighting campaign in the polling industry by only allowing hack pollsters to release GCB’s just so Bonier and his friends could tweet nonstop about momentum.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Wave is still on for the moment. The last week felt like a coordinated gaslighting campaign in the polling industry by only allowing hack pollsters to release GCB’s just so Bonier and his friends could tweet nonstop about momentum.

Again, polls aren't the end all be all they just polled pA Oz is still losing and CNN has Barnes down by 50/49 and Obama is campaign next week with Barnes people love to believe in polls what happened in AK and NY 19 and Vali recalls and VA Gov was only won by 2 pts by Youngkin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The red wave is obviously in the H the EC map is gonna follow the 303 track in 22/24 Senate races and Baldwin is on the ballot in WI and Jacky Rosen is on the ballot in NV and Bob Casey Jr in 24 anyways, and they are much stronger than Barnes and CCM and Fetterman

[SnowLabrador]

Cook moved AZ-SEN back to Tossup. In my opinion, it should never have been moved to Lean D.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

House Majority PAC dropped $2M into NJ-05. This is weird - the new district was Biden +12, Gottheimer is an insane fundraiser, his opponent is pretty lackluster and the GOP has spent nothing here.

I read about this in Politico or DailyKos - it's Bloomberg money that was given to HMP. Apparently he gave them $10M but had long ago agreed to have like $2M earmarked for Gottheimer and $2M earmarked for Sherril, even though they clearly don't need it. Not only do their warchests remain insanely high, but their opponents are nonexistent with no $. Sounds like it's more of a personal thing with Bloomberg + those two

[wbrocks67]

And with a new R+4, we get another D+3.

https://twitter.com/NavigatorSurvey/status/1585615019395502080

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528
House Majority PAC dropped $2M into NJ-05. This is weird - the new district was Biden +12, Gottheimer is an insane fundraiser, his opponent is pretty lackluster and the GOP has spent nothing here.

Bloomberg loves his corporatist Democrats. Hopefully he’ll promise one of them $50 Million to primary Menendez.

[wbrocks67]

SLF dumped another $100K into IA-02 yesterday. I wonder if the Selzer poll was onto something (still questionable, given the low sample size). Looks like Dems still have not spent there

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.

There's also a pretty strong correlation with the youth vote.

If the poll has youths at like D+10 (like this, NYT/Siena LV model, Monmouth, etc.), then they come out to about R+4/5.

If the poll has youths at like D+20-25, like the CBS or NBC poll for example (that mirrors the Harvard poll out today among youth voters), it's closer to tied.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.

Once again, looking at cross tabs when we know only top lines have any semblance of accuracy.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.

There's also a pretty strong correlation with the youth vote.

If the poll has youths at like D+10 (like this, NYT/Siena LV model, Monmouth, etc.), then they come out to about R+4/5.

If the poll has youths at like D+20-25, like the CBS or NBC poll for example (that mirrors the Harvard poll out today among youth voters), it's closer to tied.

As a young person I laugh at the idea that 40% of us would vote for someone who hates us, wants to kill us by ignoring climate change, and wants to make us die on the street from defunding social security.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.

There's also a pretty strong correlation with the youth vote.

If the poll has youths at like D+10 (like this, NYT/Siena LV model, Monmouth, etc.), then they come out to about R+4/5.

If the poll has youths at like D+20-25, like the CBS or NBC poll for example (that mirrors the Harvard poll out today among youth voters), it's closer to tied.

As a young person I laugh at the idea that 40% of us would vote for someone who hates us, wants to kill us by ignoring climate change, and wants to make us die on the street from defunding social security.

Yeah, unless youth turnout completely craps the bed, I don't imagine in a year like this, with Roe especially, that youth voters are suddenly going to be R-leaning.

[wbrocks67]

Echelon has D+2 on GCB, 48-46 among LV

RV is D+3, 48-45

http://echelonin.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/October-2022-Omnibus-FULL-EXTERNAL-Topline.pdf