2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[BenjiG98]

Pew has GCB at D+1

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1583175472438865920?s=20&t=WTQtJzs...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew has GCB at D+1

They were D+2 in August and tied in March (I don't see any others).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1583115763447365632?t=xumyK8ws6bS0ZxqCX...

But guys, this is only due to this district being "more R downballot" and "local issues". It says nothing about the national environment /s

[Person Man]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

They have to change their coalition. High propensity voters dominate with needs regarding civil liberties and public health but if lower propensity voters started to stay or defect, then it makes since to deemphasize their issues like police and immigration reform and reemphasize things like funding public schools, money for public safety, and labor/trade.

[GALeftist]

All the dooming/gloating is annoying. Behave like adults, people. Make your prediction and move on. It will speak for itself come November 8.

[Person Man]

All the dooming/gloating is annoying. Behave like adults, people. Make your prediction and move on. It will speak for itself come November 8.

Well, there’s that but it’s so hard seeing so many people mess up so badly in ultra slow motion like this.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

All the dooming/gloating is annoying. Behave like adults, people. Make your prediction and move on. It will speak for itself come November 8.

Seriously.  My two-y/o nephew acts more mature than some of you folks.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 52/44:Senate anyways Tossups are OH, FL, NC and UT Ds are gonna net WI and PA even with the absence of polling in WI there is no way if Evers is favored that Johnson is the prohibited fav to win no way

NV, OR and WI are fools gold and Cook has WI as Tossup already after seeing Drazen crater Johnson and LAXALT are soon gonna follow and Abortion is very restrictive in WI anyways

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

[Devils30]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

[Mr.Phips]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

Oh 100%. That's why I think the average being about a tie to D+1 lines up a lot with what we're seeing, and also lines up with a very close House but a small R edge in the house.

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

2014 =/= 2022

[Devils30]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode).  

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

There were few Dem incumbents in suspenseful races that year. Zeldin opened a clear late lead in NY-1 but other seats such as WV-3, GA-12, NC-7, UT-4 were double digit Romney seats that everyone knew would flip. IL-12 was a weak Dem incumbent in a R trending seat and I don't recall any IA-1 polls that year but it was clear Braley was flopping weeks out. Apples and oranges comparison to this year as the Dems are not over exposed in red leaning seats.

[Mr.Phips]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode).  

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

There were few Dem incumbents in suspenseful races that year. Zeldin opened a clear late lead in NY-1 but other seats such as WV-3, GA-12, NC-7, UT-4 were double digit Romney seats that everyone knew would flip. IL-12 was a weak Dem incumbent in a R trending seat and I don't recall any IA-1 polls that year but it was clear Braley was flopping weeks out. Apples and oranges comparison to this year as the Dems are not over exposed in red leaning seats.

NC-07 and UT-04 were largely written off by Dems as soon as they became open.  It was not at all clear that GA-12 would flip until the very end as Barrow held a lead until then:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782791

Polls had IL-12 very close:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782809

Same with NY-01:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782947

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1583398910432641025?t=0scZsLwL0gio1tg6...

[Eraserhead]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Yep, Democrats are doing what they do best, choking at just the wrong time. Leadership needs a full cleaning out after this election.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode).  

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

There were few Dem incumbents in suspenseful races that year. Zeldin opened a clear late lead in NY-1 but other seats such as WV-3, GA-12, NC-7, UT-4 were double digit Romney seats that everyone knew would flip. IL-12 was a weak Dem incumbent in a R trending seat and I don't recall any IA-1 polls that year but it was clear Braley was flopping weeks out. Apples and oranges comparison to this year as the Dems are not over exposed in red leaning seats.

NC-07 and UT-04 were largely written off by Dems as soon as they became open.  It was not at all clear that GA-12 would flip until the very end as Barrow held a lead until then:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782791

Polls had IL-12 very close:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782809

Same with NY-01:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782947

But Mr phips, polling was accurate in 2014! /s

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Yep, Democrats are doing what they do best, choking at the last minute. Leadership needs a full cleaning out after this election.

Just a note if a Poll is within 5 pts that's why DEMINGS has a chance we have 5/6 percent of the blk and Brown and single female vote to make up the difference that's why Drazen cratered because along with Oz, Masters, Lake, Lee, Budd, VanceJohnson Rubio , can't get out of the  MOE , Mastriano and Bailey are 7 pts back they don't have the gender gap support to make up 7 pts back I keep saying this over and over the Senate map is good for us thru 26 but if we lose the H narrowly we can win it back in 24 Adam Schiff is getting ready to take over for the DCCC and he said he will win the needed seats back to H majority the Prez certificate isn't Jan 2023 to recertify Biden it's Jan 2025 so we can still have time to have a DH for 2025

Vance is sure piggy backing off of DeWine that's why the poll hasn't been outside MOE because Vance has higher negatives than DeWine

Ds aren't firing their leadership after a 225/210 RH majority because we were down 241(192 in the Boehner yrs if Rs we're to win like they were supposed to a 245RH and 54S there would be no way Ds can have the S or the H in 24 for Biden recertification on Jan 2025 not Jan 2023

Users don't think an R Supermajority was the norm in the H not a bare majority

[Mr.Phips]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode).  

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

There were few Dem incumbents in suspenseful races that year. Zeldin opened a clear late lead in NY-1 but other seats such as WV-3, GA-12, NC-7, UT-4 were double digit Romney seats that everyone knew would flip. IL-12 was a weak Dem incumbent in a R trending seat and I don't recall any IA-1 polls that year but it was clear Braley was flopping weeks out. Apples and oranges comparison to this year as the Dems are not over exposed in red leaning seats.

NC-07 and UT-04 were largely written off by Dems as soon as they became open.  It was not at all clear that GA-12 would flip until the very end as Barrow held a lead until then:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782791

Polls had IL-12 very close:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782809

Same with NY-01:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782947

But Mr phips, polling was accurate in 2014! /s

Oh yeah, right, it’s only not accurate when Trump isn’t on the ballot, like in Iowa, Ohio, and Florida in 2018 or NJ in 2021 /s

[MillennialModerate]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Same. Pretty clear it’s over.

Polling is always wrong against the GOP. So showing a lead of that size shows a clear red wave

[Person Man]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Same. Pretty clear it’s over.

Polling is always wrong against the GOP. So showing a lead of that size shows a clear red wave

I’d like to think it’s because people don’t need us any more. Unemployment is low, corporate profits are up. Maybe more people are trading in their Hyundai POS for E-classes, moving from renting to owning, and selling their bowling balls for golf clubs. I like to think that. On the other hand, why is everybody making money but me?!