2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling FRANKEN Ryan and McMullin wins why they won't move UT is beyond me

[wbrocks67]

WA-SEN... really...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1582520942730743808

[Devils30]

One thing different from last year is the Dems have not completely cratered with independents and even led in Fox News, CBS Battleground (but not Siena).

The warning signs with independents were there in VA:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne6DjNT-3vLGgPHEd-dvFjDF3ouU7Xdyo_p4bpyPSv8/edit#gid=0

This year you don't really see these splits and in some cases (especially GA, AZ) you see Dems winning indies outright.

RCP also made the "certain to vote" crowd their number for the Harris and Fox News poll. Their mission is to gaslight and create the narrative this thing is over.

[kwabbit]

SLF has dumped a lot of money into Alaska on a per capita basis to defend Murkowski. It's certainly an interesting choice. Murkowski is allied with McConnell, but she is a thorn in his side when it comes to legislating. Maybe Tshibaka would be even more troublesome, but spending so much money on an R vs. R race is intriguing.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

One thing different from last year is the Dems have not completely cratered with independents and even led in Fox News, CBS Battleground (but not Siena).

The warning signs with independents were there in VA:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne6DjNT-3vLGgPHEd-dvFjDF3ouU7Xdyo_p4bpyPSv8/edit#gid=0

This year you don't really see these splits and in some cases (especially GA, AZ) you see Dems winning indies outright.

RCP also made the "certain to vote" crowd their number for the Harris and Fox News poll. Their mission is to gaslight and create the narrative this thing is over.

I still have the Senate tilting Democratic, and agree that RCP are hacks who should mostly be ignored. Still, feeling more nervous than I was a week or two ago.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

One thing different from last year is the Dems have not completely cratered with independents and even led in Fox News, CBS Battleground (but not Siena).

The warning signs with independents were there in VA:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne6DjNT-3vLGgPHEd-dvFjDF3ouU7Xdyo_p4bpyPSv8/edit#gid=0

This year you don't really see these splits and in some cases (especially GA, AZ) you see Dems winning indies outright.

RCP also made the "certain to vote" crowd their number for the Harris and Fox News poll. Their mission is to gaslight and create the narrative this thing is over.

I still have the Senate tilting Democratic, and agree that RCP are hacks who should mostly be ignored. Still, feeling more nervous than I was a week or two ago.

One key thing to think about is that Biden's approval rating only peaked a week or two ago, and the Atlas groupthink had already declared several upswings and downswings for Democrats during that period.

[Lief 🗽]

SLF has dumped a lot of money into Alaska on a per capita basis to defend Murkowski. It's certainly an interesting choice. Murkowski is allied with McConnell, but she is a thorn in his side when it comes to legislating. Maybe Tshibaka would be even more troublesome, but spending so much money on an R vs. R race is intriguing.

I think McConnell would choose having a caucus of 49 Murkowskis over 49 Tshibakas without a second thought.

[kwabbit]

SLF has dumped a lot of money into Alaska on a per capita basis to defend Murkowski. It's certainly an interesting choice. Murkowski is allied with McConnell, but she is a thorn in his side when it comes to legislating. Maybe Tshibaka would be even more troublesome, but spending so much money on an R vs. R race is intriguing.

I think McConnell would choose having a caucus of 49 Murkowskis over 49 Tshibakas without a second thought.

One Murkowski is all you need for some legislation to be killed. While One Tshibaka doesn't do much. Who knows if McConnell actually cares about legislation or any other policy though.

[Babeuf]

SLF has dumped a lot of money into Alaska on a per capita basis to defend Murkowski. It's certainly an interesting choice. Murkowski is allied with McConnell, but she is a thorn in his side when it comes to legislating. Maybe Tshibaka would be even more troublesome, but spending so much money on an R vs. R race is intriguing.

It’s just the cost of keeping her happy. If he doesn’t defend Murkowski with his millions and she wins anyway, that leaves the relationship worse than before and makes her potentially more rebellious going forward.

[Senator Incitatus]

SLF has dumped a lot of money into Alaska on a per capita basis to defend Murkowski. It's certainly an interesting choice. Murkowski is allied with McConnell, but she is a thorn in his side when it comes to legislating. Maybe Tshibaka would be even more troublesome, but spending so much money on an R vs. R race is intriguing.

I think McConnell would choose having a caucus of 49 Murkowskis over 49 Tshibakas without a second thought.

One Murkowski is all you need for some legislation to be killed. While One Tshibaka doesn't do much. Who knows if McConnell actually cares about legislation or any other policy though.

McConnell cares about legislation and largely agrees with Murkowski on what it should look like.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Besides, it's not like the super conservatives can't be pains to McConnell too. I mean during his time in leadership he's had to deal with Jim DeMint, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul, with Cruz even shutting down the government.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult has D+1 among the GCB, 45-44, in RV. Sample is more GOP-leaning last week.

Interesting though, of course which Politico does not point out in its daily e-mail: this weekly poll is also showing what the Morning Consult Midterm Tracker is - Democrats are more "enthusiastic" to vote

Democrats are 64% extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, Republicans only 58%.

In the GCB sample of "extremely" or "enthusiastic" to vote, Democrats lead by 3, 50-47. Biden's approval is also 48-52 among that group, compared to 44/54 among RV.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000183-ee9a-d8b3-afd3-feffb55d0000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000162-97b9-d63a-af73-f7bda2ca0000&nlid=630318

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1582729920303988737

[Devils30]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/19/campaign-election-forecast-gop-00062447

This article basically is just confirming that the Dems triaged WI-3 and acts like they triaged FL-7 and 13 when neither was competitive in the first place. I do think AZ-1 would be a mistake for Dems to give up on...very high % of college grads (not unlike NJ-7).

This is a good district by district demographic breakdown:

The high college grad % in AZ-1, NJ-7, NE-2 and decent college grad +black vote in NC-13 is interesting.

https://echeloninsights.com/turnout-2022/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GcB 48/45 D exactly 2012 where it was a 3o3 65/60 K vote Eday it's a 303 map 51/47 in 2012

24 is the same exact thing if we lose the H we will win it back in 24, Trump and DeSantis has no chance against BIDEN

[wbrocks67]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

[Devils30]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

If Dems lose House by 3-6 seats and its bc AZ-1, CA-45, NE-2, NM-2 don't flip, there are going to be real questions. The Dem establishment just has a bad attitude in general, there is no killer mentality.

[wbrocks67]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

If Dems lose House by 3-6 seats and its bc AZ-1, CA-45, NE-2, NM-2 don't flip, there are going to be real questions. The Dem establishment just has a bad attitude in general, there is no killer mentality.

To be fair, they seem to be investing heavily in NE-02 and NM-2. Unfortunately the first two don't seem to be a priority.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/19/campaign-election-forecast-gop-00062447

This article basically is just confirming that the Dems triaged WI-3 and acts like they triaged FL-7 and 13 when neither was competitive in the first place. I do think AZ-1 would be a mistake for Dems to give up on...very high % of college grads (not unlike NJ-7).

This is a good district by district demographic breakdown:

The high college grad % in AZ-1, NJ-7, NE-2 and decent college grad +black vote in NC-13 is interesting.

https://echeloninsights.com/turnout-2022/

This projection has Nevada actually gaining 1% of the electorate being WWC from 2020, losing 3% Hispanic, and losing 1% black. Based on exit polls assuming college whites are 50/50 and WWC is 60/40, this means that Trump would have won the 2022 electorate by something like 1.1 points. CCM has only 3 options to make up that difference:

1) Hold on with white voters and have a dramatic over-performance with Hispanics
2) Improve on Biden with college educated whites (doubtful)
3) Have this projection be wrong and net more minority votes

Laxalt wins if this projection is correct and he comes close to matching Trump with every group.

Edit: Those numbers are compared to their own 2020 projection

[Gracile]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

Tbf, if they are losing AZ-01 and AZ-06, then AZ-02 is probably much less favorable for Democrats than their spending indicates. Given some of the party's other spending choices this cycle, I think it is just as simple as spending heavily out of loyalty to incumbents rather than investing in some open seats/pickup opportunities that probably aren't sure things anyway (I don't think this is such a good strategy either, but I can understand it).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

Tbf, if they are losing AZ-01 and AZ-06, then AZ-02 is probably much less favorable for Democrats than their spending indicates. Given some of the party's other spending choices this cycle, I think it is just as simple as spending heavily out of loyalty to incumbents rather than investing in some open seats/pickup opportunities that probably aren't sure things anyway (I don't think this is such a good strategy either, but I can understand it).

AZ 1 to me is far more likely to go Democratic than something like IA-3/VA 2 etc. Trends are dramatic and Schweikert has many scandals. TBF, Hodge is uninspiring and weak, but still

[Devils30]

The Ds special election performance with college voters (look at Ithaca, Rochester MN, Lincoln) is a wildcard for 2022. If they improve on Biden in these types of places it will likely limit the losses, oddly polling kind of missing these in the specials.

OTOH, a Youngkin style WWC showing where Dems get 25% of this group should also not be ruled out and could give Johnson a 5-6% win in WI.

[BenjiG98]

Ipsos has D+1 for today

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1582760982601814017?s=20&t=XEtEjyQ...

[riceowl]

No Stella, you did not do a good job. There are 29% undecided.