2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1582360793063964672

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[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1582360982831001600

A 3 pt. margin would possibly be enough to keep the House, maybe even net a few seats and at least keep the senate at 50-50. That said, I don't think that will happen and the GCB will be closer to R+2.

[Brittain33]

The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1582360793063964672
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Throw your money away, I guess.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov

Adults: D+4 (38-34)
RV: D+2 (46-44)
Definitely vote/already voted: D+1 (48-47)
Probably/maybe vote: D+2 (41-39)

https://www.scribd.com/document/601306277/20221017-Yahoo-Tab-Midterms-1

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1582360793063964672
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Throw your money away, I guess.

This is what happens when you have unlimited money and get cocky, I guess. Is bringing Maloney down really worth $4M, too? Couldn't that be better spent on other races?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That NY Times Siena poll was Hackish showing Rs ahead by 4 and tied with RV 46 just like the Johnson poll had Johnson plus 6 and tied with RV and the same as Budd plus 6 no poll other than MQK and ECU has Johnson and Budd up 6

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

While we're on the topic of internal polling: what *is* internal polling anyway and how does it differ from...not-internal polling?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1582381570891005952?s=20&t=HT1ZpfvMod2u6ipxPCVlng

You Gov 46/44 D the reason why Ds are winning despite the Environment because Student Loan Discharge when has Rs given us 20K in Student loan Debt Relief if Rs take Congress they want us to pay back our student loans but poor people pay 0 anyways IDR 20 yr forgiveness

This 20K will be deleted off your credit report forever and give you a shot at a better credit rating, like Credit cards

[wbrocks67]

Looks like AZ-02 is actually competitive

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1582392418820714497

[Ferguson97]

The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

While we're on the topic of internal polling: what *is* internal polling anyway and how does it differ from...not-internal polling?

Internal polls are polls sponsored by either a candidate running in the race or an outside group that has endorsed one of the candidates.

[soundchaser]

The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

While we're on the topic of internal polling: what *is* internal polling anyway and how does it differ from...not-internal polling?

Internal polls are polls sponsored by either a candidate running in the race or an outside group that has endorsed one of the candidates.

Of course, there's a marked difference between public internal polling and private internal polling. Which doesn't actually help answer the question, I realize...

[Person Man]

The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

While we're on the topic of internal polling: what *is* internal polling anyway and how does it differ from...not-internal polling?

Internal polls are polls sponsored by either a candidate running in the race or an outside group that has endorsed one of the candidates.

Of course, there's a marked difference between public internal polling and private internal polling. Which doesn't actually help answer the question, I realize...

You mean those that are released and those that are not?

[Devils30]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/17/democratic-candidates-house-fundraising-00062110

Dems don’t seem to have a fundraising problem in terms of competing.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/17/democratic-candidates-house-fundraising-00062110

Dems don’t seem to have a fundraising problem in terms of competing.

Yeah, this is why I feel like a lot of this stuff about House Majority PAC/DCCC complaining about money is a bit overdramatic. Democrats have outraised their opponents in most House races by a LOT, and yes there is a ton of PAC money coming in, but those are getting way less rates.

Think of it like this - MI-07 is a good example.

Dems and Reps are both spending big in outside spending (about $7M each), but Slotkin raised $2.1M and Barrett only $700K. So Slotkin is getting way better rates here, even with the onslaught of GOP outside spending.

[BenjiG98]

Harris GCB poll shows R+6

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1582403826191306753?s=20&t=MSH23I9...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Today mark 3 until D Day it doesn't really matter about GCB, the Rs have to crack the blue wall and in the polls so far they are failing

Kelly +3, Whitmer and Walz +5, the Senate that's why I posted it already is just as bad for Rs and Gallego is gonna primary Sinema if we lose the H

[soundchaser]

Harris GCB poll shows R+6

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1582403826191306753?s=20&t=MSH23I9...

This is the same poll from yesterday that had RV tied. Heck of a likely voter screen.

[wbrocks67]

that poll singlehandedly sunk the 538 average from D+0.8 to D+0.5 lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter the 303 blue wall is safe even if we lose OR, OR isn't a swing state just like we can lose NH, VT GOVs but we can't afford to lose WI and NV and AZ Govs but we are tied or leading

The Rs are having problems in OK and we are having trouble in OR I would be glad to swap OK for OR, OR isn't a swing state Biden is leading by 9 pts in OR because it has a D controlled Legislative body

[Person Man]

that poll singlehandedly sunk the 538 average from D+0.8 to D+0.5 lol

You beat me to it. If you look at the crosstabs, it makes sense.

[wbrocks67]

that poll singlehandedly sunk the 538 average from D+0.8 to D+0.5 lol

You beat me to it. If you look at the crosstabs, it makes sense.

What makes sense?

[Person Man]

that poll singlehandedly sunk the 538 average from D+0.8 to D+0.5 lol

You beat me to it. If you look at the crosstabs, it makes sense.

What makes sense?

How close the Dobbs question is.

[wbrocks67]

that poll singlehandedly sunk the 538 average from D+0.8 to D+0.5 lol

You beat me to it. If you look at the crosstabs, it makes sense.

What makes sense?

How close the Dobbs question is.

Oh yeah, 100%. I'm not surprised they found a R+6 LV when they found Dobbs at 50/50 and Trump's favorability at net-0.

[Person Man]

that poll singlehandedly sunk the 538 average from D+0.8 to D+0.5 lol

You beat me to it. If you look at the crosstabs, it makes sense.

What makes sense?

How close the Dobbs question is.

Oh yeah, 100%. I'm not surprised they found a R+6 LV when they found Dobbs at 50/50 and Trump's favorability at net-0.

If this is the end result, I think we will have 2014 margins in Congress and if things calcify like they did last cycle, I think Trump probably wins the popular vote and 35 states.