2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.

[Devils30]

I am honestly done caring about polls, we have an election in 3 weeks and we'll find out the truth then!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Average the polls out people, this isn't hard.

I think it's more likely than not that Democrats at least somewhat underperform their polling this year, given how polling has been the last few cycles, but the chaotic swings of individual polls are just 100% not worth focusing on.

FWIW, the generic ballot polling was pretty good in two out of the last three cycles. 538 had a D+8.6 final average in 2018, and the final margin was exactly that, D+8.6. In 2016, it was a bit worse, D+1.2 vs a final margin of R+1.1, for an error of D+2.3. 2020 was significantly worse, a 538 had D+7.3 vs a final margin of D+3.1, for an error of D+4.2. Average those three cycles out, and the polls, on average, have been off by about 2.2 points in favor of Democrats. That's not all that bad, all things considered, certainly not compared to some of the consistent state-level polling misses in places like Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For all you R nut mapping users USA Today is soon gonna be releasing an OH Sen poll at 4 ET or soon afterward they say  that it's Ryan's race to lose I already made OH, FL, NC and IA Lean D but Vance isn't gonna be winning this with ease

Center Street Pac isn't making these numbers up OH and CO 3 are competitive but the OHPI says Lee is favored McMullin said he isn't gonna caucus with us no ways

[wbrocks67]

Average the polls out people, this isn't hard.

I think it's more likely than not that Democrats at least somewhat underperform their polling this year, given how polling has been the last few cycles, but the chaotic swings of individual polls are just 100% not worth focusing on.

FWIW, the generic ballot polling was pretty good in two out of the last three cycles. 538 had a D+8.6 final average in 2018, and the final margin was exactly that, D+8.6. In 2016, it was a bit worse, D+1.2 vs a final margin of R+1.1, for an error of D+2.3. 2020 was significantly worse, a 538 had D+7.3 vs a final margin of D+3.1, for an error of D+4.2. Average those three cycles out, and the polls, on average, have been off by about 2.2 points in favor of Democrats. That's not all that bad, all things considered, certainly not compared to some of the consistent state-level polling misses in places like Ohio.

I think it's also harder to model the GCB when it's attached to a Presidential election, since I feel like those two things happening at the same time can start affecting each other. Would not be surprised if polling is not as bad, similar to 2018, since it's not attached to a Prez race.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.

Weren't you the one who said Kennedy would defeat Markey by at least 15 points?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Average the polls out people, this isn't hard.

I think it's more likely than not that Democrats at least somewhat underperform their polling this year, given how polling has been the last few cycles, but the chaotic swings of individual polls are just 100% not worth focusing on.

FWIW, the generic ballot polling was pretty good in two out of the last three cycles. 538 had a D+8.6 final average in 2018, and the final margin was exactly that, D+8.6. In 2016, it was a bit worse, D+1.2 vs a final margin of R+1.1, for an error of D+2.3. 2020 was significantly worse, a 538 had D+7.3 vs a final margin of D+3.1, for an error of D+4.2. Average those three cycles out, and the polls, on average, have been off by about 2.2 points in favor of Democrats. That's not all that bad, all things considered, certainly not compared to some of the consistent state-level polling misses in places like Ohio.

I think it's also harder to model the GCB when it's attached to a Presidential election, since I feel like those two things happening at the same time can start affecting each other. Would not be surprised if polling is not as bad, similar to 2018, since it's not attached to a Prez race.

Hard to say, but given that the general consensus is that polling has gotten meaningfully worse only starting in the 2016 cycle, that would leave us with a sample size of exactly one midterm, which does not inspire confidence.

If we don't go with the assumption that pre-2016 polling is meaningless, then we have a better sample to look at. Unfortunately I can't find a 538 generic ballot average for 2014, but Huffington Post and RCP - not ideal sources, but eh, best that exists for that era - both had the polls that year around R+2.3, vs a final result of R+5.7, which would be an overestimation of Democratic support of 3.4 points. Going back to 2010, RCP had a generic ballot of R+9.4, vs a final margin of R+6.8, for an overestimation of *Republican* support by 2.6 points. In 2006, RCP had a final polling margin of D+11.5 vs a final margin of D+7.9, for an overestimation of Dem support by 3.6 points. Averaging all of that together with 2018 yields an average D overestimation of 1.1 points.

Idk what the exact right approach is. All I know is I am getting absolutely exhausted with certain people on here who have made it their entire personality to not merely insist that the polls will be historically wrong this year, but who are downright gleeful at that prospect despite ostensibly believing that a Republican takeover of Congress would be bad for the country. I can tolerate the Republicans who want the polls to be off because they want Republican government, and I can tolerate the genuinely depressed Democrats who are convinced that everything will go wrong and are on the verge of a mental breakdown because they are panicked about the future of the country, but it's the cognitive dissonance of those who say "America is doomed if Republicans win but hey it'll be awesome for me because at least I was right on an internet forum, and that's what *really* matters" that just grinds my gears into dust.

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.

Weren't you the one who said Kennedy would defeat Markey by at least 15 points?

I’m sure when the race first started I might’ve assumed Massachusetts voters would do what they’ve done for years - make the correct choice when it comes to the Kennedy’s.

However it was ME who - before a single poll showed Markey ahead said something to the effect of “I’m on the ground and this doesn’t look like a Kennedy win to me - Im sick to my stomach but I honestly think Markey is going to win this race from what I’ve seen”

I was wrong about Georgia in ‘20 most especially and Nevada in ‘18 but for the most part - I’ve been pretty spot on most races

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways remember when I said this would be 2014? Well I continue to be right on this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyways remember when I said this would be 2014? Well I continue to be right on this.

What you continue to be is convinced you're right before the event has happened.  Maybe you are and maybe you aren't.  But you don't need to keep repeating it; you've grown extremely tiresome with it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Anyways remember when I said this would be 2014? Well I continue to be right on this.

What you continue to be is convinced you're right before the event has happened.  Maybe you are and maybe you aren't.  But you don't need to keep repeating it; you've grown extremely tiresome with it.

More tiresome than probably all of the other doomers combined, and more openly gleeful about it.

MillennialModerate is at least somewhat restrained in the pessimism. SnowLabrador is more extreme but at least seems horrified. ForumLurker is in an entirely different category.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’m sure when the race first started I might’ve assumed Massachusetts voters would do what they’ve done for years - make the correct choice when it comes to the Kennedy’s.

However it was ME who - before a single poll showed Markey ahead said something to the effect of “I’m on the ground and this doesn’t look like a Kennedy win to me - Im sick to my stomach but I honestly think Markey is going to win this race from what I’ve seen”

I was wrong about Georgia in ‘20 most especially and Nevada in ‘18 but for the most part - I’ve been pretty spot on most races

I can't speak as to the accuracy of your predictions because I don't keep track of most, but I'd assume the reason most people are frustrated is that hyper-pessimism is exhausting and depressing. Our country's political crisis is unsettling enough without persistent catastrophizing.

Once you've made your perspective on polling known (that one party will over or underperform due to X, Y, or Z), it's just sort of dumping anxiety onto other people.

What is pessimistic, exhausting, and depressing about it? Around half the country will either be pleased with the result or neutral about it, if Forumlurker's prediction comes true.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m sure when the race first started I might’ve assumed Massachusetts voters would do what they’ve done for years - make the correct choice when it comes to the Kennedy’s.

However it was ME who - before a single poll showed Markey ahead said something to the effect of “I’m on the ground and this doesn’t look like a Kennedy win to me - Im sick to my stomach but I honestly think Markey is going to win this race from what I’ve seen”

I was wrong about Georgia in ‘20 most especially and Nevada in ‘18 but for the most part - I’ve been pretty spot on most races

I can't speak as to the accuracy of your predictions because I don't keep track of most, but I'd assume the reason most people are frustrated is that hyper-pessimism is exhausting and depressing. Our country's political crisis is unsettling enough without persistent catastrophizing.

Once you've made your perspective on polling known (that one party will over or underperform due to X, Y, or Z), it's just sort of dumping anxiety onto other people.

What is pessimistic, exhausting, and depressing about it? Around half the country will either be pleased with the result or neutral about it, if Forumlurker's prediction comes true.

Oh they won’t be very happy in the longterm. But that is a problem for later…

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I am honestly done caring about polls, we have an election in 3 weeks and we'll find out the truth then!

The only thing we know for sure is that if the Democrats don't win, they'll lose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am honestly done caring about polls, we have an election in 3 weeks and we'll find out the truth then!

The only thing we know for sure is that if the Democrats don't win, they'll lose.

Big if true.

[wbrocks67]

I wish we got these for every state, they're fascinating. Even in a week when Masters/GOP outspent Kelly/Dems, Kelly still has a 3:1 GRP advantage.

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1582116489544445953

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't know, I'm starting to get that uneasy feeling about those two consecutive generic ballot polls suggesting that things might be turning around in Republicans' favor again. And I say that as someone who has been keeping my expectations relatively low for these elections. It almost hurts more to be given hope and have it snatched away and not matter than the worst case scenario be a constant like how it looked before late July or so.

I think I may just have to hold out for the Senate races or others where the candidates nominated and local factors may matter more and avert any sort of sentiment in the national environment. I mean, in 2018 the GOP netted two Senate seats with a national popular vote for the Democrats that was way higher than what the Republicans will realistically achieve this year. The same could happen for Democrats keeping the Senate, no? I'm not unreasonable in still having that to cling to, right? Or am I deluding myself and already at the bargaining stage of grief?

[wbrocks67]

I don't know, I'm starting to get that uneasy feeling about those two consecutive generic ballot polls suggesting that things might be turning around in Republicans' favor again. And I say that as someone who has been keeping my expectations relatively low for these elections. It almost hurts more to be given hope and have it snatched away and not matter than the worst case scenario be a constant like how it looked before late July or so.

I think I may just have to hold out for the Senate races or others where the candidates nominated and local factors may matter more and avert any sort of sentiment in the national environment. I mean, in 2018 the GOP netted two Senate seats with a national popular vote for the Democrats that was way higher than what the Republicans will realistically achieve this year. The same could happen for Democrats keeping the Senate, no? I'm not unreasonable in still having that to cling to, right? Or am I deluding myself and already at the bargaining stage of grief?

I mean, the RV in the NYT/Siena polls is 46-46, which is basically right around where the GCB has been for months now (around D+1)

Even the RV in the ABC/Wapo poll that had +5 LV was R+1 in the RV. The results have been pretty much around the same (a few points around D+1, the current average) in some form for a bit now. There's a few whacky LV screens, but I don't really see how there's truly been a ton of change. (not to mention the 538 average would be a smidge higher if not for Traf and Ras's R+6/7 polls)

Also Fox had D+3 on Sunday, but that seems to have been ignored in the hullabaloo.

[Devils30]

I don't know, I'm starting to get that uneasy feeling about those two consecutive generic ballot polls suggesting that things might be turning around in Republicans' favor again. And I say that as someone who has been keeping my expectations relatively low for these elections. It almost hurts more to be given hope and have it snatched away and not matter than the worst case scenario be a constant like how it looked before late July or so.

I think I may just have to hold out for the Senate races or others where the candidates nominated and local factors may matter more and avert any sort of sentiment in the national environment. I mean, in 2018 the GOP netted two Senate seats with a national popular vote for the Democrats that was way higher than what the Republicans will realistically achieve this year. The same could happen for Democrats keeping the Senate, no? I'm not unreasonable in still having that to cling to, right? Or am I deluding myself and already at the bargaining stage of grief?

I mean, the RV in the NYT/Siena polls is 46-46, which is basically right around where the GCB has been for months now (around D+1)

Even the RV in the ABC/Wapo poll that had +5 LV was R+1 in the RV. The results have been pretty much around the same (a few points around D+1, the current average) in some form for a bit now. There's a few whacky LV screens, but I don't really see how there's truly been a ton of change. (not to mention the 538 average would be a smidge higher if not for Traf and Ras's R+6/7 polls)

Also Fox had D+3 on Sunday, but that seems to have been ignored in the hullabaloo.

https://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2020/united-states/house/exit-poll/

There is actually an election Dems won despite losing WWC by 33 and basically tying with white college. No one really remembers the Dems only won the 2020 House vote by 3%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Don’t know if this has been brought up, but RCP moving NY Gov to tossup is really stupid and hackish on their part.

Yes I think Hochul will underperform Biden severely but someone in needs to tell me where Zeldin is going to find the 1million + net votes needed to outvote NYC.

[Brittain33]

I can’t distinguish between RCP and RRH on Twitter any longer.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1582184292364746752

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult midterm tracker is steady once again - D+3, 48-45

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

This thing has been pretty rock solid for 2 months now. Has been D+2-4 basically the entire time.

Also this-

For the fifth week in a row, Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point gap is the largest Democratic advantage Morning Consult has recorded in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena released the RV results of their poll, and we have the culprit for why the LV screen moves towards the GOP - young voters and independents!

In the RV screen, <45 year olds make up 38% of the total electorate. In the LV screen, they only make up 31%.

Meanwhile, the LV screen cycled out what looks like a lot of young, independent voters.

The RV screen has 18-29 year olds at D+23, but the LV screen only has D+12.

Independents are the biggest change here overall. They are actually at D+4 among RV, but shift all the way to R+10 in the LV model.

So I would imagine there were many 18-29 year old Independents who lean Democrat who got cycled out, possibly for putting "very likely to vote" instead of "almost certain to vote"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/18/upshot/times-siena-poll-registered-voters-crosstabs.html

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1582360982831001600