2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

There very well could be such a turnout difference, but I think you've drawn exactly the opposite conclusion of what the result would be.  There is certainly evidence from the Kansas primaries and post-Dobbs special elections that D-leaning districts and counties turned out at higher rates than R-leaning ones.  But this turnout difference didn't occur because voters happened to live inside those districts.  It happened because more Democrats turned out than Republicans, so naturally D-leaning areas had higher turnout than R-leaning ones. 

So what would happen in competitive districts with approximately equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?  If D's turn out at a higher rate than R's, it would make such districts more likely to go Democratic, because more of them would be voting than their Republican counterparts in the district.  If the turnout patterns from Kansas and the post-Dobbs specials are replicated in November, the Republicans would get clobbered.  The good news for them is that the Democratic turnout advantage is likely to be reduced or eliminated in November.

C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections. If anything the GCB Polls are moving more towards Republicans as the "Summer Dobbs Bounce" is fading and Inflation, Gas Prices taking whole again as we go deeper into the autumn when it is inevitable that you'll need more gas as it gets colder outside. I predict and maybe I'm wrong on it that Gas Prices will be equal or even higher what we saw in 2021/2022 come deep Autumn/Early Winter 2022/2023.

Gas Prices are skyrocketing in NV & AZ. That is not good for the D's running in the Districts in those States as well as the Statewide Candidates like CCM, Kelly, Hobbs and Sisolak.

Excuse me?  Higher turnout in D districts than R districts was your assumption at the heart of your argument.  Right here:

Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts

But do we know WHO is turning out in bluer districts? Higher turnout doesn't necessarily benefit democrat/republican candidates just because their party won a specific district. What political leanings do these low propensity voters have? That's key here, especially in NV/AZ/TX.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1577348356388560896

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1577348356388560896

This will not stop Nate Cohn from writing another piece claiming people are ignoring the 2020 polling error.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I have no idea what to make of generic ballot polls anymore. I'm just glad that I already got my October surprise wish that I made in my last post here, and within three days of the month starting. They've done quite a bit to brighten my mood a bit when it comes to this year's elections. Regardless of what the generic ballot suggests, it doesn't negate the evident fact that Walker did the most hypocritical thing you could do as a "pro-life" Republican in what could be an Akin/Mourdock tier election upsetting scandal.

I'm living or dying by the Senate this year.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

2016 is even admitting that Dems will probably win the GCB, and is coping accordingly lol

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I have no idea what to make of generic ballot polls anymore. I'm just glad that I already got my October surprise wish that I made in my last post here, and within three days of the month starting. They've done quite a bit to brighten my mood a bit when it comes to this year's elections. Regardless of what the generic ballot suggests, it doesn't negate the evident fact that Walker did the most hypocritical thing you could do as a "pro-life" Republican in what could be an Akin/Mourdock tier election upsetting scandal.

I'm living or dying by the Senate this year.

Honestly I've just stopped paying attention to the GCB altogether. 

[2016]

2016 is even admitting that Dems will probably win the GCB, and is coping accordingly lol

And, Democrats will still lose the House. It will not be a wave so what? Pelosi had a 222-213 House for the most part of 2021 and 2022 and still got most of her stuff done.

Republicans will win those 6 Seats required to win the House I can guarantee you that.

[Unelectable Bystander]

2016 is even admitting that Dems will probably win the GCB, and is coping accordingly lol

And, Democrats will still lose the House. It will not be a wave so what? Pelosi had a 222-213 House for the most part of 2021 and 2022 and still got most of her stuff done.

Republicans will win those 6 Seats required to win the House I can guarantee you that.

2016 you are making things up. There is no over-vote. If there is, it’s probably related to the fact that Dems are more likely to live in urban hyper-packed 80% Biden districts where it’s rare for full congressional districts to be unanimously republican. This always exists. And no Dems are not favored to win the popular vote at this time

[ProgressiveModerate]

2016 is even admitting that Dems will probably win the GCB, and is coping accordingly lol

And, Democrats will still lose the House. It will not be a wave so what? Pelosi had a 222-213 House for the most part of 2021 and 2022 and still got most of her stuff done.

Republicans will win those 6 Seats required to win the House I can guarantee you that.

2016 you are making things up. There is no over-vote. If there is, it’s probably related to the fact that Dems are more likely to live in urban hyper-packed 80% Biden districts where it’s rare for full congressional districts to be unanimously republican. This always exists. And no Dems are not favored to win the popular vote at this time

Also worth noting that the vast majority of these Biden + 60 or more seats are relatively low turnout minority seats in cities like NYC and LA. Even though they're politically lopsided, the traditionally lower turnout means there aren't as many wasted votes.

On net, Dems don't really have a geography disadvantage, it's just that redistricting gave Rs a notable but not insurmountable boost.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult up to D+3 this week, 46-43. Was 45-43 last week.

[wbrocks67]

Here's something interesting from the Morning Consult/POLITICO poll-

has Democrats and Reps tied on "extremely enthusiastic" to vote (38% each) but Democrats with an edge when extremely + very are combined (63% vs 59%)

However, there is a huge delta between Biden approvers and non-approvers in enthusiasm

Biden strongly approve: 60% extremely enthusiastic
Biden strongly disapprove: 40% extremely enthusiastic

In a midterm, you'd think it would be the other way around

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/10/04162256/2209231_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_10-05-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

And Dems are back into the lead in YouGov/Economist, which had R+1 last week.

Now D+1, 47-46

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/avydu33kqm/econTabReport.pdf

[Gracile]

Cook has made 10 more House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1577668535425318912

CA-09: Harder - Lean D to Likely D
FL-07: OPEN (Murphy) - Likely R to Solid R
FL-27: Salazar - Likely R to Lean R
IL-06: Casten - Lean D to Likely D
IA-01: Miller-Meeks - Likely R to Lean R
MI-08: Kildee - Toss Up to Lean D
NV-04: Horsford - Toss Up to Lean D
PA-07: Wild - Lean R to Toss Up
TX-15: OPEN (Gonzalez) - Lean R to Likely R
TX-34: Flores/Gonzalez - Lean D to Toss Up

[ajc0918]

FL-27 appears in play. NRCC just bought $2M in TV ads down there too.

[wbrocks67]

I feel vindicated in that PA-07 move.

TX-34 is interesting though, I still feel like there's just no way Flores has that big of a chance.

[Boobs]

I feel vindicated in that PA-07 move.

TX-34 is interesting though, I still feel like there's just no way Flores has that big of a chance.

I assume the changes to TX-34 (and TX-15) are related to rumors I’ve heard about CLF internal polls showing Republicans doing well in the Valley. The numbers aren’t public but Wasserman et al have been privy to such unreleased internals in the past.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The article is paywalled but it sounds like a Republican house coalition would include vast improvements in NY, flipping at least one Oregon seat, the RGV, and maybe RI 2.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The article is paywalled but it sounds like a Republican house coalition would include vast improvements in NY, flipping at least one Oregon seat, the RGV, and maybe RI 2.

If Republicans are flipping OR 5 and RI 2, its an R wave year. They don't need those seats to win the house

[BenjiG98]

The article is paywalled but it sounds like a Republican house coalition would include vast improvements in NY, flipping at least one Oregon seat, the RGV, and maybe RI 2.

If Republicans are flipping OR 5 and RI 2, its an R wave year. They don't need those seats to win the house

OR-5 was only Clinton +3  and Biden +9. It's more Republican down ballot on top of that. Republicans can win it outside of a wave year, especially with a messy gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The article is paywalled but it sounds like a Republican house coalition would include vast improvements in NY, flipping at least one Oregon seat, the RGV, and maybe RI 2.

If Republicans are flipping OR 5 and RI 2, its an R wave year. They don't need those seats to win the house

OR-5 was only Clinton +3  and Biden +9. It's more Republican down ballot on top of that. Republicans can win it outside of a wave year, especially with a messy gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket.

If you had a moderate republican incumbent like a Fitzpatrick/Katko/Bacon I think GOP would win especially against a very progressive candidate like Skinner. But an open seat? I have my doubts. Chavez doesn't blow me away really as a candidate.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

And with Georgia…with its thing…I don’t even know if it’s easier than AZ.

[GALeftist]

Cook and Sabato put TX-34 in tossup today. Why lol. The district is BIDEN+16 people. It's basically identical to New Jersey in terms of partisanship. Incumbency shmincumbency, Gonzalez is heavily favored.

[Devils30]

I feel vindicated in that PA-07 move.

TX-34 is interesting though, I still feel like there's just no way Flores has that big of a chance.

Yeah, even in the special where there was a 9 point swing from 2020, it would still put Gonzalez up 6 in TX-34. It is also more Dem downballot ancestrally. I also think Cuellar will be fine in TX-28 considering his rural strength in primary and the Cisneros areas in Bexar will hold their nose and vote for him in the general.

FL-27 is interesting because it had the same trends as South Texas but is not at all socially conservative. You can see Miami trends kind of flatlining if not slightly reversing and the RGV continuing its March right. Ironically, Dems might flip Texas in 2028 or 2032 even with a deep red RGV once they are winning Collin County by double-digits.

[Devils30]

Cook and Sabato put TX-34 in tossup today. Why lol. The district is BIDEN+16 people. It's basically identical to New Jersey in terms of partisanship. Incumbency shmincumbency, Gonzalez is heavily favored.

South Texas polling is a mess and can work either way. In 2018 we were told Will Hurd was a lock with a 15 point lead and he won by like 900 votes.