2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

NBC/Telemundo did an oversample of Latino voters and found D+21 on the GCB, 54-33. 13% undecided.

Similar to the other recent oversample of Latinos that found +25, 53-28

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/gop-cuts-democrats-lead-latino-voters-new-poll-shows-rcna50189

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/Selzer_Grinnell_Sept22_Toplines.pdf


Ds lead 46/42 stop Dooming on Barnes he is only down two and Pat Ryan came back from 8 down WI like NY is a blue not red state


Data 4 Progress shows Abbott only up 5 he won by 10 in 2018
Early voting is underway now its past polling season as I have said over and over again

[Progressive Pessimist]

NBC/Telemundo did an oversample of Latino voters and found D+21 on the GCB, 54-33. 13% undecided.

Similar to the other recent oversample of Latinos that found +25, 53-28

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/gop-cuts-democrats-lead-latino-voters-new-poll-shows-rcna50189

What was it at this point in 2020?

[2016]

If you believe the ABC/WaPo Poll from a week ago there will be a significant overvote from Democrats in SAFE Democratic Districts. Democrats need a 4-5 Popular Vote Win possibly even more to keep the House.

Biden won by 7M+ Votes in 2020, 81M+ to 74M+ yet the Electoral College was 306-232 with a handful of States only being decided by 20K Votes or less.

The Structural Advantage Republicans have in this Midterm IMO have not being talked enough.

YET the Democrats here on Talk Elections and elsewhere keep pushing this narrative that they have a chance at holding the House. No, they don't. It is gaslighting and a pipe-dream. Pelosi & Sean Patrick Maloney know this. They just won't admit it to the Public.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If you believe the ABC/WaPo Poll from a week ago there will be a significant overvote from Democrats in SAFE Democratic Districts. Democrats need a 4-5 Popular Vote Win possibly even more to keep the House.

Biden won by 7M+ Votes in 2020, 81M+ to 74M+ yet the Electoral College was 306-232 with a handful of States only being decided by 20K Votes or less.

The Structural Advantage Republicans have in this Midterm IMO have not being talked enough.

YET the Democrats here on Talk Elections and elsewhere keep pushing this narrative that they have a chance at holding the House. No, they don't. It is gaslighting and a pipe-dream. Pelosi & Sean Patrick Maloney know this. They just won't admit it to the Public.

So you admit the Dems are still up on the GCB?

[wbrocks67]

NBC/Telemundo did an oversample of Latino voters and found D+21 on the GCB, 54-33. 13% undecided.

Similar to the other recent oversample of Latinos that found +25, 53-28

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/gop-cuts-democrats-lead-latino-voters-new-poll-shows-rcna50189

What was it at this point in 2020?

54-28. So a small shift to the GOP, which would align with the D+1 GCB right now (compared to D+3/4 in 2020)

[wbrocks67]

FL-27 is interesting...

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1576927066724835329

[Devils30]

FL-27 is interesting...

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1576927066724835329

FL-27 is Trump +0.3 but very elastic and decently educated. There really is no meaningful difference between this and a Biden +0.3 seat other than psychological effects.

[Devils30]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

Rasmussen just found them at R+1. Nice try bro.

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)

[wbrocks67]

This is something to watch-

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1576957205441835008

[Devils30]

This is something to watch-

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1576957205441835008

Monmouth has had weird swings this year, had R+7 in January and then D+1 in March despite nothing happening in the news that would change anything. I still think there have been troubling signs for Dems the past week though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1576959314908282880?t=NMmzw3hFiYUO-m9YK1i...

[Devout Centrist]

This is something to watch-

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1576957205441835008

Absurdly small sample size + absurdly low response rate = lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1576959314908282880?t=NMmzw3hFiYUO-m9YK1i...

Lol do you know where Rs we're on the GCB when they won WI, PA, MI, NV in 2010/14 48/42 on GCB it was gonna tighten anyways since inflation hasn't gone down

[HidingCommentary]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1576959314908282880?t=NMmzw3hFiYUO-m9YK1iHmQ&s=19

I clicked on the tweet hoping to find a good twitter account to see new polls but this one only posts Republican favorable ones. Shame.

[HidingCommentary]

This is something to watch-

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1576957205441835008

Monmouth has had weird swings this year, had R+7 in January and then D+1 in March despite nothing happening in the news that would change anything. I still think there have been troubling signs for Dems the past week though.

I think Monmouth has been having a lot of trouble in general lately. They have some of the best methodology in the industry but they've been missing races just like everyone else. If we get a big miss in 2022 too, I think its clear evidence that any form of accurate telephone polling is near impossible in this day and age. 

[HidingCommentary]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)

Yeah, kind of strange how Monmouths ballot has gone from:

R+7 -> D+1 -> R+4 -> = -> D+7 = -> R+3

Wonder whats causing such huge shifts?

Edit: They were certainly off, but their generic ballot in 2020 was remarkably more stable.

[Devils30]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)

Yeah, kind of strange how Monmouths ballot has gone from:

R+7 -> D+1 -> R+4 -> = -> D+7 = -> R+3

Wonder whats causing such huge shifts?

Edit: They were certainly off, but their generic ballot in 2020 was remarkably more stable.

This poll is weirdly already 9-12 days old as well, even before the Rasmussen R+1 one. The electorate will not be 31% college, midterms are usually 38-40% college. Still, the Dems have a big problem where people disagree with them on literally everything but abortion these days.

[OneJ]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)

Yeah, kind of strange how Monmouths ballot has gone from:

R+7 -> D+1 -> R+4 -> = -> D+7 = -> R+3

Wonder whats causing such huge shifts?

Edit: They were certainly off, but their generic ballot in 2020 was remarkably more stable.

This poll is weirdly already 9-12 days old as well, even before the Rasmussen R+1 one. The electorate will not be 31% college, midterms are usually 38-40% college. Still, the Dems have a big problem where people disagree with them on literally everything but abortion these days.

I'm not sure this is a good way of looking at it let alone it being necessarily accurate. There are a number of issues in which Democrats lead Republicans in with some more than others. 

I think that generally the electorate is pretty reactive considering whenever the GOP either does something (overturning Roe) or gets pretty close to doing something (the attempt to kill Obamacare) that's quite unpopular, voters react against them in some way. Ultimately, I just think the bigger issues like messaging for example.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If you believe the ABC/WaPo Poll from a week ago there will be a significant overvote from Democrats in SAFE Democratic Districts. Democrats need a 4-5 Popular Vote Win possibly even more to keep the House.

Biden won by 7M+ Votes in 2020, 81M+ to 74M+ yet the Electoral College was 306-232 with a handful of States only being decided by 20K Votes or less.

The Structural Advantage Republicans have in this Midterm IMO have not being talked enough.

YET the Democrats here on Talk Elections and elsewhere keep pushing this narrative that they have a chance at holding the House. No, they don't. It is gaslighting and a pipe-dream. Pelosi & Sean Patrick Maloney know this. They just won't admit it to the Public.

It's a bit of a paradox because while a hypothetical super high turnout scenario would grow the PV - Majority divide in the House, it'd actually likely shrink it in the Senate due to basically all the key Senate races being a question of whether a single liberal mega-city or two can outvote the rest of the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always had a feeling that Dark Brandon August wouldn't last on momentum alone. Circumstances haven't exactly changed since then but between Americans' ever-frustrating low attention span and the GOP flooding the airwaves, it seems like that's been enough to negate Democratic hopes for November.

Granted, two things in Democrats' favor still seem to not be going away: 1. Republicans still dealing with bad recruits and 2. Democrats being more inclined to turn out than they probably would have pre-Dobbs. With that, I don't think the GOP is going to return to their R+5 or 6 generic ballot average of the Spring. But Democrats are going to need something to claw back to the comfortable position we looked to be in back in August. If there is an October surprise I would hope for one that benefits us. I don't know what it could be, but I may be wasting my time even considering that possibility since it seems to be a constant that Democrats peak too early in elections.

[wbrocks67]

I always had a feeling that Dark Brandon August wouldn't last on momentum alone. Circumstances haven't exactly changed since then but between Americans' ever-frustrating low attention span and the GOP flooding the airwaves, it seems like that's been enough to negate Democratic hopes for November.

Granted, two things in Democrats' favor still seem to not be going away: 1. Republicans still dealing with bad recruits and 2. Democrats being more inclined to turn out than they probably would have pre-Dobbs. With that, I don't think the GOP is going to return to their R+5 or 6 generic ballot average of the Spring. But Democrats are going to need something to claw back to the comfortable position we looked to be in back in August. If there is an October surprise I would hope for one that benefits us. I don't know what it could be, but I may be wasting my time even considering that possibility since it seems to be a constant that Democrats peak too early in elections.

I don't really think it's about peaking; like you said, most things haven't changed in the last month except for the GOP's massive spending.

They are already $50M+ over their 2020 spending at this point. Not so much about Democrats "peaking" as the GOP it's just going absolutely insane in the ad wars.

The funny thing is though, on September 3rd, the 538 GCB was D+0.9. It's D+1.2 today. So things haven't gotten worse for Dems in the last month technically.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always had a feeling that Dark Brandon August wouldn't last on momentum alone. Circumstances haven't exactly changed since then but between Americans' ever-frustrating low attention span and the GOP flooding the airwaves, it seems like that's been enough to negate Democratic hopes for November.

Granted, two things in Democrats' favor still seem to not be going away: 1. Republicans still dealing with bad recruits and 2. Democrats being more inclined to turn out than they probably would have pre-Dobbs. With that, I don't think the GOP is going to return to their R+5 or 6 generic ballot average of the Spring. But Democrats are going to need something to claw back to the comfortable position we looked to be in back in August. If there is an October surprise I would hope for one that benefits us. I don't know what it could be, but I may be wasting my time even considering that possibility since it seems to be a constant that Democrats peak too early in elections.

I don't really think it's about peaking; like you said, most things haven't changed in the last month except for the GOP's massive spending.

They are already $50M+ over their 2020 spending at this point. Not so much about Democrats "peaking" as the GOP it's just going absolutely insane in the ad wars.

The funny thing is though, on September 3rd, the 538 GCB was D+0.9. It's D+1.2 today. So things haven't gotten worse for Dems in the last month technically.

I guess "peaking" is the wrong word, but it always feels like things get increasingly worse shortly before election day in some of the past few cycles. Two that really come to mind are 2016's Comey incident and 2021 had pretty much everything possible go wrong with the BBB bill being held up, gas and inflation concerns beginning, and the pandemic still being relevant.