2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greenberg already has it 50/47 it's a D yr

[Gracile]

New Inside Elections rating changes:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1573382557357510658

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Inside Elections rating changes:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1573382557357510658

I don't know why they had Nevada as tilt D to begin with.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McLaughlin Biden Approvals are 48/50


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1573439146336702471?t=3BQpi4DcI0s3uFxdC6aBcw&s=19

[Farmlands]

New Inside Elections rating changes:

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1573382557357510658

I don't care how dissatisfied with Brown the people of OR-6 may be perceived as, an open Biden+13 district with a credible Democratic candidate is not going to the GOP this year. Especially not while Democrats simultaneously hold OH-9.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

The Supreme Court elections are just as partisan. People knew McLaughlin was the D and Brobson was the R, and the ads reflected that.

There was also nearly 2.8M turnout which I wouldn't call "low turnout"

Also, yes it was R+1. It was Brobson 50.45, McLaughlin 49.55.

You’re on the ground so I trust you on stuff like ads, but ballotpedia says it was R + 5. I tried looking for a site that said otherwise but couldn’t find anythibg

LMK if this works - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=84&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

That's the most up to date, the DOS website. I think ballotpedia and places like NYT also just stopped counting after that night (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html)

Ah thank you. Honsetly it's annoying how annoying it can be to get accurate data for some of these non-federal races.

[wbrocks67]

McLaughlin has GCB at R+4, 48-44.

Funny enough, at the same time they have Biden's fav at 49/49 and job approval at 48/50 lol.

[Devils30]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

They also tend to overreact to the story of the day or even just ET narratives that have gained traction for whatever reason.

[Lief 🗽]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

They also tend to overreact to the story of the day or even just ET narratives that have gained traction for whatever reason.

A lot of these guys are running on steam. Their days are numbered. There’s no reason for people to pay for their opinions when you can get the same opinions from some 17-year-old kid on Twitter.

[Sestak]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

I mean afaik multiple of these are now literally being run by former Atlas posters. Their purpose is to be a credible aggregator who is accessible to a layperson, not necessarily to be the best aggregator in the world. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

I mean afaik multiple of these are now literally being run by former Atlas posters. Their purpose is to be a credible aggregator who is accessible to a layperson, not necessarily to be the best aggregator in the world. 

Wait what?

[Gass3268]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

I mean afaik multiple of these are now literally being run by former Atlas posters. Their purpose is to be a credible aggregator who is accessible to a layperson, not necessarily to be the best aggregator in the world. 

They also get access to inside information (essentially loads of internal polling) that we'll never see.

[Roll Roons]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

I mean afaik multiple of these are now literally being run by former Atlas posters. Their purpose is to be a credible aggregator who is accessible to a layperson, not necessarily to be the best aggregator in the world. 

Wait what?

Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball (and Election Twitter) used to post on here and occasionally comes back.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1573384408547082242

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not an R wave so it's gonna be 303,map with an R H and 52/48 S or a 55/45 Senate and Tossup H it's not gonna be majority RCongress

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1573384408547082242

This guy's entire Twitter account is a bottomless well of hopium. I won't take it. I'm afraid to.

[SaneDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1573384408547082242

This guy's entire Twitter account is a bottomless well of hopium. I won't take it. I'm afraid to.

Exactly

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1573384408547082242

This guy's entire Twitter account is a bottomless well of hopium. I won't take it. I'm afraid to.

Exactly

His modeled turnout of the early vote is generally junk, but they do a good job with the breakdowns of publicly available data like gender, race, and age. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dems GCB number (45.1%) highest since June 2021.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Wapo coming out of retirement. New poll release tonight at midnight.

CBS battleground tracker will have an update Sunday morning too

[Devils30]

ABC/WashPo has R+1 with registered and Rs getting 18% of the black vote and Trump 23% in 2024. The topline isn't at all odd but if you expected a quality poll that made sense, this won't be it. We are going to have historic uncertainty on election day with all these polling misses the past 5 years.

[BG-NY]

Been a strong September for republicans. Need to keep Dobbs/Abortion out of the news to keep recovering momentum.

[Devils30]

Been a strong September for republicans. Need to keep Dobbs/Abortion out of the news to keep recovering momentum.

They haven't been gaining in polls, it's just the Dems were never up 7 in WI and 10 in PA to begin with.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1573892358139150336?t=EILs1jbnh-EJJ6X6nxJHhA&s=19

Washington Post shows Biden at 39/53 Favs but on Battle for control of Congress it's 47/46R the Rs enjoyed a 6 pt advantage at this pt in 2010/14 right before the Midterms this won't be a 2010/14 repeat as Big -NY keeps saying on 2010/14  10/28 Rs were 48/42 in real clear polls on GCB

It's the same as NBC news 46(/46

And Early voting is underway, which benefits Dems we are looking at a 2018 EDay at the minimum RH 226 and 53/47 D Senate WI, MI, OH which Trump has a 53/47 right after 2018 and he was 40/54 Approvals same as Biden but we're not losing 41H Seats