2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

Now this seems a bit cocky to me, that instead of trying to just shore up who they need to, they're still focusing on Biden double digit districts, especially ones like Flores'.

I mean the CLF is basically the Incumbent Protection Service

Right, but spending $3M on a Biden +15 district is.... an interesting way to spend money.

[Ferguson97]

"These voters are disproportionately males, ideological moderates, self-identified independents, and those living in the exburbs."

If Republicans don't have these voters in the bag, they are in DEEP trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways it's 65)60 M D advantage since 2006, but we won 2018 not 80/75 M but 65/60 M and won MT, OH WVA Sen and NC H races partisan trends don't matter as much in Midterms as in Prez Elections and SUNUNU and Baker and Hogan won in 20¹8 and SUNUNU and Scott are gonna be reelected we can get a 2012 EDay where Rs net the H and D's win 52/55 Senate seats users think that Barnes is a lost cause no he isn't


We're probably will get 65)60 M not 80/75 M will that be enough like in 2018 to secure the TRIFECTA  or secure OH, NC and FL and KS and WI and PA and GA we will find out but exact maps never work users didn't make GA Lean D and they made it Lean R and they could not update their maps I would love to make it 303 but Ryan and Crist are 5 not 10 pts behind MOE and Beasley and Demings are tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We also know Traggy and Emerson is trying to prop up FL and OH for Rs Vance and DeSantis

DeWine isn't gonna win by 20 more like six that can bring down Vance numbers to even with RYAN

DeWine underperform in 2018 and Brown won, if DeWine wins by Five Ryan will win by 51)49 or 50 K votes

[Lief 🗽]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

[Devils30]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/us/politics/gop-trump-midterms.amp.html

Private polling shared with The New York Times showed the Republican candidate in the 19th District with a 36-percentage-point advantage among independents, driven by their concerns about the economy. But it’s hard to tell how many independents might have made the effort if they weren’t at the polls already for Primary Day.


And the NYT is buying into that poll as anything but complete garbage??

[OSR stands with Israel]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

Stunning how so many GOP pundits thought in 2006 the GOP still could keep the house cause those numbers look apocalyptic. The 2006 poll numbers always seem stunning, like how did we poll that bad going into the midtmers

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

Stunning how so many GOP pundits thought in 2006 the GOP still could keep the house cause those numbers look apocalyptic. The 2006 poll numbers always seem stunning, like how did we poll that bad going into the midtmers

Literally everything that could go wrong in 2006 went wrong.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

2014 is really what is scary cause it was fairly recent and Dems had a good sense of optimism only to lose basically every remotely competative race, especially when it came to Senate and Gov.

Imo as a Democrat I feel like a reasonable hope to have is that Ds flip MA and MD Gov and at least hold MI and PA gov even if they lose WI, KS, AZ, GA, ect. They lose the House but hold the Senate so they can still confirm judges and begin to balance out the judiciary.

I think one difference between 2014 and 2022 though is that in 2014, basically all the battleground Senate seats were in states that had become R on the Pres level and were catching up downballot plus there was a general increase in polarization from 2012. In 2022, we are much more polarized already and all the key Senate races are in traditional battleground states making "unexpected blowouts" less likely. Rs winning AZ, NV, GA, and PA Senate is a very realistic possibility and will continue to be all the way up to eday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs just cancelled as buys in AZ and PA they're not winning PA either and Johnson is Gone

[Gracile]

A Democratic group is making a small ($94K) ad buy in the NH-02 GOP primary to try to boost the more right-wing candidate, Bob Burns, over Keene mayor George Hansel-

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/29/new-hampshire-gop-primary-00054137

[Bootes Void]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

Stunning how so many GOP pundits thought in 2006 the GOP still could keep the house cause those numbers look apocalyptic. The 2006 poll numbers always seem stunning, like how did we poll that bad going into the midtmers

It could be the same logic said back in 2017 where most pundits thought that redistricting, geography and fundraising  ould keep the republicans despite being in a bad political environment. There is also the fact that the 2002 midterms was just a few years ago and some false believe about some sort in the war on terror or Iraq happening before the elections

[Roll Roons]

Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/

[Spectator]

Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/

I think Arizona is pre-mature. For some reason I don’t trust the polls there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is tracking the same as he was in 2020 leading by 4 and won 51/48 Masters isn't beating Kelly in a neutral Environment and Hillary won NV in 2016 by 51/49 w it's CCM that means in a neutral cycle she will win 51/49


In a neutral Environment it's a 303 map anyways, that's why you don't hear from MT Treasurer he said CCM and Kelly were gone and Kelly has been leading in every poll but he has ME and NM going  R



I don't make an exact map I have been predicting since 2004 and others just started predicting and everytime I made an exact mao it was wrong 2008/12 I didn't predict FL going D and Obama with Biden won it or IN or NC

[wbrocks67]

Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/

I think Arizona is pre-mature. For some reason I don’t trust the polls there.

Kelly's leads have all been pretty much outside the MoE.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wbrooks Some users are new to this prediction just like Progressive Moderate he came on in 2020, they don't know Biden helped Obama win red states in 2008/12 they think only 2020 and Obama had Brown, Hegan, Bill Nelson win all by himself that's why some users make exact prediction and Beasly has been leading in every poll

Biden campaigned for Bill Nelson especially in 2012 too, that's why Demings whom was up in a UNF poll 48/44 still has a chance

[wbrocks67]

Wow, YouGov/Economist up to D+8 this week, 46-38.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kqp1ntoj7v/econTabReport.pdf

Was D+5 (44-39) last week

[Sir Mohamed]

Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/

I think Arizona is pre-mature. For some reason I don’t trust the polls there.

Kelly's leads have all been pretty much outside the MoE.

Yup, I'd consider AZ-Sen Lean D as well. At least as we speak. May change between now and early November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note about WI, GA, OH, NC, FL, IA and MO and even KY no one thought we were gonna win 59 Seats in 2008 and we beat Gordon Smith and Liddy Dole they have all one thing in common Biden was Veep and helping Obama

When you see wave insurance Lean D 538 and Politico is operating on A Senate majority not wave insurance so when they have OH, Lean R it won't matter the maps are blank on Eday

I know Sir Muhammad likes to operate explicitly on rankings what did rankings have us last time 240 DH and 55 Sen seats but we won 59 Seats in 2008 and Biden was Verp

Approvals LIE, if they were true we would not be tied in OH, NC, FL and winning AZ by 10 pts it's impossible , Obama was at the same Approvals and lost  60 H Seats

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wow, YouGov/Economist up to D+8 this week, 46-38.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kqp1ntoj7v/econTabReport.pdf

Was D+5 (44-39) last week

r+3 oR mOrE iNeViTaBlE

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Democrats hold an edge on most issues:

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

They're also more popular than the Republicans, which, admittedly, has historically been the case most of the time. They hold a 42-51% (-9) favorability rating compared to the Republicans at 35-58% (-23).

[prag_prog]

At the moment, I'd have PA Sen as Lean D, GA Sen as TossUp, WI Sen as Tilt R, AZ Sen as Tilt D

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac has GCB at D+4 among adults (46-42) and RV (47-43)

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854

Quite a jump from their last poll in late July that had R+1 in adults and D+1/tied in RV