2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

The poll also has a ton of conservatives, few moderates, Dems winning independents but a GOP gain. The red flags for GOP are beginning to show, we should take the idea of Dems retaining the majority seriously.

[wbrocks67]

New CBS/YouGov poll of LVs has R+2 in GCB, 47-45.

Was R+2 in July, 45-43.

Interesting though that in July their poll indicated an R+4 LV turnout model. Now it indicates an R+2 turnout model, which aligns with what we've been seeing with Dems closing the enthusiasm gap.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I1kCPBeysGALnPoddxMP_Ch6Ki9WApf0/view

[wbrocks67]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

The poll also has a ton of conservatives, few moderates, Dems winning independents but a GOP gain. The red flags for GOP are beginning to show, we should take the idea of Dems retaining the majority seriously.

I also don't love them having "Independent Candidate" AND "someone else" as options here. Most of these people saying either of those are going to end up picking R or D.

[Sir Mohamed]

New CBS/YouGov poll of LVs has R+2 in GCB, 47-45.

Was R+2 in July, 45-43.

Interesting though that in July their poll indicated an R+4 LV turnout model. Now it indicates an R+2 turnout model, which aligns with what we've been seeing with Dems closing the enthusiasm gap.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I1kCPBeysGALnPoddxMP_Ch6Ki9WApf0/view

Tbh, if this accurate, it may actually be close to a tie in terms of seats. If Dems could gain at least another point and win the NPV by 3, we might hold the House. It's within reach, but I don't get my hopes up. At least not yet. If this picture holds into October, I'd be more optimistic.

[Xing]

Perhaps they’re being overconfident, November will tell us that for sure. But complacent to me suggests not doing much campaigning and/or sitting on competitive races, which definitely does not describe them. While they were overconfident in 2020, I’d say that 2016 is the only year that they were truly complacent, in that they took competitive races for granted.

Honestly, at least until recently, Republicans are the ones who seemed complacent and overconfident that historical precedent would guarantee a red wave regardless of how far they went. 2022 still might be a red wave, but that’s far less of a given than some Republicans seem to think, and the special election results should make them at least a little nervous, as well as the lack of campaigning by some Republicans. If Democrats were gaining in the spring rather than the late summer, it’d be easier to dismiss.

[2016]

Democrats have peaked last week. NBC came out last weekend with R+2, now it's CBS/YouGov and they have it too at R+2.

Republicans will come home very late just like they did in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Perhaps they’re being overconfident, November will tell us that for sure. But complacent to me suggests not doing much campaigning and/or sitting on competitive races, which definitely does not describe them. While they were overconfident in 2020, I’d say that 2016 is the only year that they were truly complacent, in that they took competitive races for granted.

Honestly, at least until recently, Republicans are the ones who seemed complacent and overconfident that historical precedent would guarantee a red wave regardless of how far they went. 2022 still might be a red wave, but that’s far less of a given than some Republicans seem to think, and the special election results should make them at least a little nervous, as well as the lack of campaigning by some Republicans. If Democrats were gaining in the spring rather than the late summer, it’d be easier to dismiss.

I mean tbh, objectively, you're correct - if there are people who have been complacent or overconfident, it's the GOP. Not only were people like McCarthy publicly saying numerous times there would be a giant red wave, it's clear even among the candidates that they've been slow to campaigning and fundraising (Vance, Oz, etc.) and some not even really bothering to campaign at all (Rubio, Abbott, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Democrats have peaked last week. NBC came out last weekend with R+2, now it's CBS/YouGov and they have it too at R+2.

Republicans will come home very late just like they did in 2016.

CBS/YouGov is pretty much the only poll in the last week that hasn't erred to the left since their last iteration. And it's not like it moved to the right, it just stayed the same, which is also just dependent on LV modeling.

[wbrocks67]

Should also be noted that CBS/YouGov estimating 226-209 based on an R+2 result.

Which means a 50/50 D+0 result on the GCB could result in a tied house or 1 or 2 in either direction.

[Benjamin Frank]

Top 10 incumbent fundraisers this cycle.  This is mostly as of June 30, but states with primaries in August are based on slightly later fundraising totals. Not really a big deal.

1.Kevin McCarthy $20,870,325
2.Nancy Pelosi 19,046,873
3.Katie Porter 16,954,492
4.Adam Schiff 16,913,805
5.Dan Crenshaw 13,702,935
6.David Trone 12,781,819 (self funded?)
7.Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10,635,559
8.Marjorie Taylor Greene 10,212,392
9.Jim Jordan 9,105,265
10.Elissa Slotkin 6,805,985

[Benjamin Frank]

Democrats have peaked last week. NBC came out last weekend with R+2, now it's CBS/YouGov and they have it too at R+2.

Republicans will come home very late just like they did in 2016.

Republicans have been home already for a long time.

[Devils30]

Should also be noted that CBS/YouGov estimating 226-209 based on an R+2 result.

Which means a 50/50 D+0 result on the GCB could result in a tied house or 1 or 2 in either direction.

The NY-19 was not consistent with R+2 whatsoever. Pollsters are trying to use their 2014 model with a mix of 2018 and a mix of finding underrepresented Trump non-responders. It's a mess. The GOP is assuring us they are too big to fail and the media is going right along...we shall see.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1563909984362053635

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Politico still have Rs favored in the Senate but obviously that won't come to past Masters is not gonna win and neither is Laxalt and we're gonna win WI and PA and GA is going to a runoff we will see about OH, NC and FL but you don't get Brownie pts for having an accurate prediction, you are scored but I'd you are truly a D why would you want to lose pts on underpredicted and not overpredicted I am satisfied with my rating because except for 2008/12 I overoredicted

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Be advised early voting is starti g soon Oct1/31st all our D votes are gonna come from early vote we gonna rack up the votes before EDay and then the same day vote go to Rs I am not conceding anything to Rs

[Woody]

TBF you guys also said last time Democrats were poised to have net gains in the House.. So not sorry we're sceptical.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TBF you guys also said last time Democrats were poised to have net gains in the House.. So not sorry we're sceptical.

It's quite reasonable to be skeptical, but that cuts both ways.  Neither should you be overconfident.

FTR, I still expect the Republicans to gain seats, but considerably fewer than I thought six months ago.  Right now I think the most likely range is R+5 to R+15, but anything in the wider range from D+5 to R+25 is certainly plausible.  So while I do expect the R's to take the House, I won't be overly surprised if they don't.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

Now this seems a bit cocky to me, that instead of trying to just shore up who they need to, they're still focusing on Biden double digit districts, especially ones like Flores'.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1564246020304805891

[CookieDamage]

It's going to be a competitive midterm, probably the first competitive midterm since 1998.

[Devils30]

Would explain the even generic ballot polls and the D+5 NY-19 results a bit.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems this a general pattern, especially in presidential cycles. W Bush, Obama and Trump all looked more vulnerable than they ended up being. Important factor this midterm cycles is also the GOP seems to have screwed up with their candidates.

Momentum is for sure on the Dem side in recent weeks. If we can just keep it going till November and into the 2024 cycle.

[ajc0918]

Voters don't need to like democrats or President Biden to know the republican party is a party of extremists.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

Now this seems a bit cocky to me, that instead of trying to just shore up who they need to, they're still focusing on Biden double digit districts, especially ones like Flores'.

I mean the CLF is basically the Incumbent Protection Service