2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

[Devils30]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

[MillennialModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approx 220-216 seats and Dems gain in Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

[Minnesota Mike]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

The ignore button is your friend.

[2016]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

Only 26 % say that the Inflation Reduction Act will actually curb Inflation while a Combined 71 % say Inflation will either stay the same or get worse.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561356586949419008

This is devastating for Biden!

I would say this: Things have stabilized for Republicans especially on the House Front. The Senate is likely gone for Republicans.

[Agafin]

How long will the Dobb effect last?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

The ignore button is your friend.

I did have him on ignore for quite a while, but when I became a moderator I cleared my ignore list so I wouldn't miss any misbehavior on my boards.  But your suggestion is a very good one for most users.

[2016]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

[MillennialModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

Only 26 % say that the Inflation Reduction Act will actually curb Inflation while a Combined 71 % say Inflation will either stay the same or get worse.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561356586949419008

This is devastating for Biden!

I would say this: Things have stabilized for Republicans especially on the House Front. The Senate is likely gone for Republicans.

This is why less climate and more child care or child tax credit or health care initiatives wouldve helped big time. The climate crisis is important but it’s not a winner with the voters - no one on the left seems to get that.

[MillennialModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

[wbrocks67]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

[2016]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

We'll see on Wisconsin. Senator Johnson has very high Negatives.

Who would have thought Adam Laxalt having a better chance of winning compared to Blake Masters or Herschel Walker. Certainly not me but that's where we are at the moment.

The Economy in NV is still very bad and Governor Sisolaks draconian COVID-19 Mandates did not help either.

[Devils30]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

It's not out of realm of possibility the GOP picks up the House but it's a meager 10 seat gain and something like this.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/jMGD6l5

[wbrocks67]

The NBC poll also has the Republican Party at a better net favorability rating as well which is something that has not been borne out in pretty much any other poll I've seen nationally. Given the last few weeks that were horrific for the GOP and better for Dems coverage wise, that result if true would say that Dems were in a god awful place right now, which again...is kind of an outlier.

[2016]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

LOL, your are one of those people here on Talk Election who puts always a good spin for Democrats no matter the Poll. Maybe we all should call you Spinbrocks instead of wbrocks.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561341939907166209

Country off the Wrong Track at 74 % isn't good News for Biden; 58 % of Americans say the Countries Best Days are behind and 68 % say the Country is in a Recession. That is not good for the WH no matter how Karine Jean-Pierre and Biden tries to spin it.

[Alben Barkley]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approx 220-216 seats and Dems gain in Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Doomers thought Trump would win outright, and were dead wrong on that. Kind of the big one. Certainly didn’t think Biden would win Arizona and Georgia. Or that Dems would take back the Senate. And don’t even get me started on how dead wrong doomers were in 2018/2019, which may be more comparable to this year.

If you are always negative OR always positive, naturally you’ll be right sometimes, but cherrypicking the few times doomers were somewhat right does not somehow prove you’re always right.

[wbrocks67]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

LOL, your are one of those people here on Talk Election who puts always a good spin for Democrats no matter the Poll. Maybe we all should call you Spinbrocks instead of wbrocks.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561341939907166209

Country off the Wrong Track at 74 % isn't good News for Biden; 58 % of Americans say the Countries Best Days are behind and 68 % say the Country is in a Recession. That is not good for the WH no matter how Karine Jean-Pierre and Biden tries to spin it.

Sis you do realize that people have different reasons for saying the country is on the 'wrong track' right? If I was asked that, I'd probably say yes too, b/c of GOP extremism. Doesn't mean I'm voting for Republicans.

[2016]

Here is a comparision of NBC POLLS

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561353390063554560

[2016]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

LOL, your are one of those people here on Talk Election who puts always a good spin for Democrats no matter the Poll. Maybe we all should call you Spinbrocks instead of wbrocks.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561341939907166209

Country off the Wrong Track at 74 % isn't good News for Biden; 58 % of Americans say the Countries Best Days are behind and 68 % say the Country is in a Recession. That is not good for the WH no matter how Karine Jean-Pierre and Biden tries to spin it.

Sis you do realize that people have different reasons for saying the country is on the 'wrong track' right? If I was asked that, I'd probably say yes too, b/c of GOP extremism. Doesn't mean I'm voting for Republicans.

You do realize that 68 % say the Country is in a Recession.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

We'll see on Wisconsin. Senator Johnson has very high Negatives.

Who would have thought Adam Laxalt having a better chance of winning compared to Blake Masters or Herschel Walker. Certainly not me but that's where we are at the moment.

The Economy in NV is still very bad and Governor Sisolaks draconian COVID-19 Mandates did not help either.

Nevada seems to be the brightest spot for Republicans among the competitive states.  I'm inclined to think both Sisolak and CCM are slight underdogs at the moment, with the caveat that Democrats have usually tended to outperform their polling in the state.

[Devils30]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

We'll see on Wisconsin. Senator Johnson has very high Negatives.

Who would have thought Adam Laxalt having a better chance of winning compared to Blake Masters or Herschel Walker. Certainly not me but that's where we are at the moment.

The Economy in NV is still very bad and Governor Sisolaks draconian COVID-19 Mandates did not help either.

Nevada seems to be the brightest spot for Republicans among the competitive states.  I'm inclined to think both Sisolak and CCM are slight underdogs at the moment, with the caveat that Democrats have usually tended to outperform their polling in the state.

Dean Heller was at 60% on PredictIt 2 weeks before the 2018 election. I do think media is being very careful with polling after 2016 and 2020.

[Xing]

Yes, Doomers were so correct that Trump had the 2020 election in the bag, and that 2018 was going to be a bad year for Democrats… Oh wait.

It’s one thing to say “take the polls with a grain of salt. They could be wrong or Republicans could gain again and have a good year after all.” That’s a perfectly reasonable take, and I’m guessing one of those two things ends up being the case.

It’s another entirely to act as though you’re positive everything will go wrong, mock anyone who go disagrees, bump threads mocking optimistic predictions while not admiring your mistakes and adjusting for them in any meaningful way. This is why Doomers are so insufferable. The persistence and (unearned) overconfidence makes it hard to take them seriously. And saying that Doomers were “almost right” in 2020 is like saying those of us sure that Bevin would win in 2019 were “almost right” or would’ve been right if Bevin had won by 0.1%. Being concerned about the possibility of bad results or merely thinking they will happen is one thing. Insisting that they will and that it’s absurd to predict otherwise is something else entirely.

Predicting multiple cycles should teach anyone that the only thing anyone can predict with confidence is that being overconfident about your predictions is a sure fire way to end up with egg on your face, sooner or later.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes, Doomers were so correct that Trump had the 2020 election in the bag, and that 2018 was going to be a bad year for Democrats… Oh wait.

It’s one thing to say “take the polls with a grain of salt. They could be wrong or Republicans could gain again and have a good year after all.” That’s a perfectly reasonable take, and I’m guessing one of those two things ends up being the case.

It’s another entirely to act as though you’re positive everything will go wrong, mock anyone who go disagrees, bump threads mocking optimistic predictions while not admiring your mistakes and adjusting for them in any meaningful way. This is why Doomers are so insufferable. The persistence and (unearned) overconfidence makes it hard to take them seriously. And saying that Doomers were “almost right” in 2020 is like saying those of us sure that Bevin would win in 2019 were “almost right” or would’ve been right if Bevin had won by 0.1%. Being concerned about the possibility of bad results or merely thinking they will happen is one thing. Insisting that they will and that it’s absurd to predict otherwise is something else entirely.

Predicting multiple cycles should teach anyone that the only thing anyone can predict with confidence is that being overconfident about your predictions is a sure fire way to end up with egg on your face, sooner or later.

Except the bloomers(including myself) mocked people too. They dismissed and were outright hostile towards anyone who didn't believe 2020 would be another d wave year

[Xing]

Yes, Doomers were so correct that Trump had the 2020 election in the bag, and that 2018 was going to be a bad year for Democrats… Oh wait.

It’s one thing to say “take the polls with a grain of salt. They could be wrong or Republicans could gain again and have a good year after all.” That’s a perfectly reasonable take, and I’m guessing one of those two things ends up being the case.

It’s another entirely to act as though you’re positive everything will go wrong, mock anyone who go disagrees, bump threads mocking optimistic predictions while not admiring your mistakes and adjusting for them in any meaningful way. This is why Doomers are so insufferable. The persistence and (unearned) overconfidence makes it hard to take them seriously. And saying that Doomers were “almost right” in 2020 is like saying those of us sure that Bevin would win in 2019 were “almost right” or would’ve been right if Bevin had won by 0.1%. Being concerned about the possibility of bad results or merely thinking they will happen is one thing. Insisting that they will and that it’s absurd to predict otherwise is something else entirely.

Predicting multiple cycles should teach anyone that the only thing anyone can predict with confidence is that being overconfident about your predictions is a sure fire way to end up with egg on your face, sooner or later.

Except the bloomers(including myself) mocked people too. They dismissed and were outright hostile towards anyone who didn't believe 2020 would be another d wave year

Sure, but that doesn’t make the attitude of the Doomers any better. Honestly, I think everyone could afford to acknowledge that we don’t know exactly what will happen, and that people are free to make predictions we don’t think are likely to pan out.