2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Xing]

I think a small shift toward the Democrats is plausible, but it’s too soon to be concluding that Democrats are now in good shape. I think left-leaning voters becoming somewhat more engaged was inevitable, thus why I never bought WA-SEN being competitive, and I do think there’s an upper limit to how well Republicans can do and that they’ll surely leave at least a few competitive races on the table, but the fundamentals are still really bad for Democrats. The Republican Party hasn’t been popular in its own right in quite some time, but that hasn’t stopped them from being quite successful, since their strategy has always been to paint the Democrats and the left as “dangerous.”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs haven't offered any new program yet what alternative have they offered to Voting Rights they just blocked it but Rs even if they lose would lose alot more seats if they didn't have this right wing CRT helping them on Gerrymandering

Rs aren't Winning without this Crt and they beat D's lost in 1994/2010/2014 when they 60 plus seats with a Right wing CRT Kennedy affirmed Gerrymandering

This Crt had been Right wing since 1991, before 1991 there was no gerrymandering

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

I get your point but it's not 16% - it's 11.6% undecided/other right now (44.2 +44.2 decided right now, 88.4)

Mb bad math

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

In the unlikely event we retain control of both houses of Congress, we probably still won't be able to overcome the filibuster -but we can do another reconciliation bill, this time including everything we weren't able to include in the Inflation Reduction Act which is well on its way to becoming law.  Though we shouldn't rule out a (potentially) bipartisan replacement of the Child Tax Credit on its own.  

[Gracile]

A tied GCB would still yield a GOP House majority (although not an overwhelming one).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A tied GCB would still yield a GOP House majority (although not an overwhelming one).

538’s model actually believe the Dems are favored to win the majority with a tied popular vote.  I believe their model tends to overrate incumbency across the board, and Dems would probably lose a tied PV, but it’s pretty close.  I think they’d be favored with a D+1.0 PV.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A tied GCB would still yield a GOP House majority (although not an overwhelming one).

538’s model actually believe the Dems are favored to win the majority with a tied popular vote.  I believe their model tends to overrate incumbency across the board, and Dems would probably lose a tied PV, but it’s pretty close.  I think they’d be favored with a D+1.0 PV.

For another viewpoint, G. Elliott Morris said on Twitter not long ago that he thinks the Democrats need a D+2.5 PV for the majority.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1554860828062613504

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1555267395341717507

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1555267395341717507

just another data point that disproves the whole 'democrats are the extreme' ones that Rs like to push.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1555267395341717507

just another data point that disproves the whole 'democrats are the extreme' ones that Rs like to push.

Well the wild card is how much that changed from pre-Dobbs.

[RI]

There has always been a large portion of the Democratic Party which identifies as "moderate" despite being rather inflexibly partisan simply because the word "liberal" was stigmatized for a long time.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/1556245847721082883?s=21&t=MalYBwgA5E0i...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think a small shift toward the Democrats is plausible, but it’s too soon to be concluding that Democrats are now in good shape. I think left-leaning voters becoming somewhat more engaged was inevitable, thus why I never bought WA-SEN being competitive, and I do think there’s an upper limit to how well Republicans can do and that they’ll surely leave at least a few competitive races on the table, but the fundamentals are still really bad for Democrats. The Republican Party hasn’t been popular in its own right in quite some time, but that hasn’t stopped them from being quite successful, since their strategy has always been to paint the Democrats and the left as “dangerous.”

An argument could be made the fundamentals are bad for both parties.

[Unelectable Bystander]

There has always been a large portion of the Democratic Party which identifies as "moderate" despite being rather inflexibly partisan simply because the word "liberal" was stigmatized for a long time.

Yeah this particular statistic doesn’t seem to say a whole lot that isn’t already known. Republicans identify more strongly as an ideological party and as a result, they will rarely if ever win the moderate vote. If they can grab half of the voters that don’t feel close to either party, they can still lose them 57-39 overall and still have an easy majority

[Spectator]

I think a small shift toward the Democrats is plausible, but it’s too soon to be concluding that Democrats are now in good shape. I think left-leaning voters becoming somewhat more engaged was inevitable, thus why I never bought WA-SEN being competitive, and I do think there’s an upper limit to how well Republicans can do and that they’ll surely leave at least a few competitive races on the table, but the fundamentals are still really bad for Democrats. The Republican Party hasn’t been popular in its own right in quite some time, but that hasn’t stopped them from being quite successful, since their strategy has always been to paint the Democrats and the left as “dangerous.”

An argument could be made the fundamentals are bad for both parties.

How do you figure? The Republicans’ problem is they nominated garbage candidates in most of their high profile competitive races except for in Nevada (governor and Senate). Not an issue with fundamentals, just their unhinged primary voters.

(I know a lot of people on this board mock “candidate quality” but it really does matter. Otherwise you wouldn’t see a Democrat Governor of Kansas/Louisiana/Kentucky or a Democrat Senator from West Virginia, or a Republican Governor of Maryland/Massachusetts/Vermont and a Republican Senator from Maine)

[Spectator]

And for what it’s worth, I don’t think Mandela Barnes is a strong candidate either. He’s taken positions or done photo ops in the past (like with Ilhan Omar, or coming out for Green New Deal) to the point where I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of Johnson’s own weaknesses, and he himself can be portrayed as out of touch with the median voter

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think a small shift toward the Democrats is plausible, but it’s too soon to be concluding that Democrats are now in good shape. I think left-leaning voters becoming somewhat more engaged was inevitable, thus why I never bought WA-SEN being competitive, and I do think there’s an upper limit to how well Republicans can do and that they’ll surely leave at least a few competitive races on the table, but the fundamentals are still really bad for Democrats. The Republican Party hasn’t been popular in its own right in quite some time, but that hasn’t stopped them from being quite successful, since their strategy has always been to paint the Democrats and the left as “dangerous.”

An argument could be made the fundamentals are bad for both parties.

It's finally the Libertarians' opportunity!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think a small shift toward the Democrats is plausible, but it’s too soon to be concluding that Democrats are now in good shape. I think left-leaning voters becoming somewhat more engaged was inevitable, thus why I never bought WA-SEN being competitive, and I do think there’s an upper limit to how well Republicans can do and that they’ll surely leave at least a few competitive races on the table, but the fundamentals are still really bad for Democrats. The Republican Party hasn’t been popular in its own right in quite some time, but that hasn’t stopped them from being quite successful, since their strategy has always been to paint the Democrats and the left as “dangerous.”

An argument could be made the fundamentals are bad for both parties.

How do you figure? The Republicans’ problem is they nominated garbage candidates in most of their high profile competitive races except for in Nevada (governor and Senate). Not an issue with fundamentals, just their unhinged primary voters.

(I know a lot of people on this board mock “candidate quality” but it really does matter. Otherwise you wouldn’t see a Democrat Governor of Kansas/Louisiana/Kentucky or a Democrat Senator from West Virginia, or a Republican Governor of Maryland/Massachusetts/Vermont and a Republican Senator from Maine)

Because the reason they nominated such garbage candidates is because that's what their party is now. It's not some fluke. Hence many former swing voters are simply not willing to vote for them regardless of the macro environment for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

And for what it’s worth, I don’t think Mandela Barnes is a strong candidate either. He’s taken positions or done photo ops in the past (like with Ilhan Omar, or coming out for Green New Deal) to the point where I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of Johnson’s own weaknesses, and he himself can be portrayed as out of touch with the median voter

This talking point really has no basis in reality. Tammy Baldwin is just as liberal as Barnes is, and she won by double digits in 2018. Not just that, but Ron Johnson is much farther right than Barnes is left, so you can't really make the accusation that Barnes is 'extreme' without mentioning that Johnson is just as much the other way, if not more.

[Spectator]

And for what it’s worth, I don’t think Mandela Barnes is a strong candidate either. He’s taken positions or done photo ops in the past (like with Ilhan Omar, or coming out for Green New Deal) to the point where I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of Johnson’s own weaknesses, and he himself can be portrayed as out of touch with the median voter

This talking point really has no basis in reality. Tammy Baldwin is just as liberal as Barnes is, and she won by double digits in 2018. Not just that, but Ron Johnson is much farther right than Barnes is left, so you can't really make the accusation that Barnes is 'extreme' without mentioning that Johnson is just as much the other way, if not more.

The guy uses gender pronouns in his Twitter bio lol. He’s a walking caricature of everything Republicans accuse Democrats of.

I’d still vote for him, sure. Doesn’t mean I think he’ll win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Gov race is gonna dictate the Senate race the D's already count WI and PA as Pickups because Johnson in 2010/16 ran with Gov Walker, he is running with Gov Evers, he only won by 3 pts and that's not a landslide, Rs are underperform in NC and OH Brown is counting OH as a 52 ND seat, he said he cannot win reelection without Ryan winning in 24, he is worried about Josh Mandel, not WI so any seats can become PA plus and give D's 52 seats the Rs have 20 Rs up and only 15 McConnell said Vance is more vulnerable than Johnson because OH is an open seat

So users think OH, WI and NC are safe R and all three races are now 3 MOE Beasley was down by 3, Ryan is up by 3 and Barnes is up by 2 isn't correct we can win any combo to get 52)48 GA is going to a Runoff anyways and that NC Gov race in 24 is not safe R, why are Ds overperformed in NC Cooper has a 55 percent Approvals like Beshear

Beshear isn't DOA in 23 either there is no poll showing Beshear losing but when Bevin was toast they showed many polls showing him losing

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/1556245847721082883?s=21&t=MalYBwgA5E0i...

It's pretty safe to say that the "Americans don't care about Dobbs" narrative has been pounded into the ground. It might not be the top issue for Americans in the midterms, but no one can deny its salience.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/1556245847721082883?s=21&t=MalYBwgA5E0i...

It's pretty safe to say that the "Americans don't care about Dobbs" narrative has been pounded into the ground.

C'mon bro just one more month bro just one more month and everyone will move on bro our position isn't actually that unpopular bro out voters are just too stupid to understand referenda bro trust me

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Conservatives believe that voters don't care about Dobbs. And what they do care about is Hunter Biden, the Durham probe, and more 2020 election audits and decertification.