2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1480576651096301569?s=20

Someone can fill me in on how well-known she is.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1480559532728274954

Hot take: Malinowski is more likely to lose than Golden.

His best chance is Kean getting MAGA'ed and beating a way too far right R.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1480559532728274954

Hot take: Malinowski is more likely to lose than Golden.

His best chance is Kean getting MAGA'ed and beating a way too far right R.

That won't happen. Gotta love the county line.

[BoiseBoy]

Clay Aiken is running in NC-06.

https://twitter.com/clayaiken/status/1480563216405127170?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Republican Buzz Patterson has suspended his campaign for CA-07 (which became more blue after redistricting).

https://twitter.com/BuzzPatterson/status/1480611766753128451?s=20

[Minnesota Mike]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

[SnowLabrador]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

She's still going to lose. If that NJ Senate leader could lose to a truck driver who spent $150 on his campaign, Cortez Masto will lose to Laxalt.

[BoiseBoy]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

She's still going to lose. If that NJ Senate leader could lose to a truck driver who spent $150 on his campaign, Cortez Masto will lose to Laxalt.

And I will put you on ignore for your hackish dooming/trolling. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1480576651096301569?s=20
Someone can fill me in on how well-known she is.

Probably not well known at all outside of Rockford although with that many candidates in the race it's probably just who can hold their base the best to eke out a plurality.

[Brittain33]

She's still going to lose. If that NJ Senate leader could lose to a truck driver who spent $150 on his campaign, Cortez Masto will lose to Laxalt.

Oh please.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador doesn't believe in the 277/289/304 blue 🧱🧱🧱

[ElectionsGuy]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

It really wouldn't be that much of a surprise to see Democrats outraise Republicans across the board this cycle. Hell, that's my prediction. People really don't understand the extent to which fundraising is now a useless predictor of elections, especially with these political coalitions. Republicans, even if they're wealthier, tend to be far more skeptical of all politicians and candidates, than Democrats. They don't want to waste money on someone who will burn them later. But your yuppie Democrat type will gladly give to Nancy Pelosi or any establishment Democrat because they can be relied on to work for their interests, and the yuppie has higher levels of institutional trust.

If Republicans can still outraise Democrats, then it should be a massive R wave.

[lfromnj]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

It really wouldn't be that much of a surprise to see Democrats outraise Republicans across the board this cycle. Hell, that's my prediction. People really don't understand the extent to which fundraising is now a useless predictor of elections, especially with these political coalitions. Republicans, even if they're wealthier, tend to be far more skeptical of all politicians and candidates, than Democrats. They don't want to waste money on someone who will burn them later. But your yuppie Democrat type will gladly give to Nancy Pelosi or any establishment Democrat because they can be relied on to work for their interests, and the yuppie has higher levels of institutional trust.

If Republicans can still outraise Democrats, then it should be a massive R wave.

Fundraising matters to some extent. It was a reason why TX 15th was so close in 2020 but TX 34th which was politically/demographically identical was a relative blowout. It has diminishing returns very quickly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

It really wouldn't be that much of a surprise to see Democrats outraise Republicans across the board this cycle. Hell, that's my prediction. People really don't understand the extent to which fundraising is now a useless predictor of elections, especially with these political coalitions. Republicans, even if they're wealthier, tend to be far more skeptical of all politicians and candidates, than Democrats. They don't want to waste money on someone who will burn them later. But your yuppie Democrat type will gladly give to Nancy Pelosi or any establishment Democrat because they can be relied on to work for their interests, and the yuppie has higher levels of institutional trust.

If Republicans can still outraise Democrats, then it should be a massive R wave.

Fundraising matters to some extent. It was a reason why TX 15th was so close in 2020 but TX 34th which was politically/demographically identical was a relative blowout. It has diminishing returns very quickly.

True. When we're dealing with nationally recognized candidates and we're getting into millions of dollars, it's close to meaningless. It tends to favor incumbency on a small scale, but that's about it. For example, in 2020...

Iowa

Ernst - $30.3M
Greenfield - $55.6M

Maine

Collins - $30M
Gideon - $74.5M

North Carolina

Tillis - $25.3M
Cunningham - $51.2M

NM-02

Herrell - $2.8M
Small - $8.4M

TX-21

Roy - $5M
Davis - $10.2M

in 2018...

Missouri

Hawley - $11.9M
McCaskill - $38.9M

North Dakota

Cramer - $5.9M
Heitkamp - $31M

You're going to see so many of these same types of disparities despite Republican wins. You have some Republican grifters like Kim Klacik who raise tons of money despite no chance of winning because they're running in a D+60 district, and you see that on both sides, but in competitive races it tends to skew overwhelmingly Democratic at this point.

[Roll Roons]

RCP's initial ratings:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

Safe D: CA, HI, MD, OR, NY, VT
Likely D: CT, IL, WA
Lean D: CO
Tossup: AZ, GA, NH, NC, NV, PA, WI
Lean R: FL, MO, OH
Likely R: AL (I know), AK
Safe R: AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ND, SC, SD, UT

Needless to say, they tend to be very generous in determining competitiveness.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't write off Tim Ryan yet the polls that we have seen have been tied and in 2018 OH split it's votes between DeWine and Brown and can again with DeWine and Ryan and as we see in the MI Gov poll Biden Approvals are not in freefall anymore

Rs haven't clinched anything yet and Schumer has set Monday for a date on Filibuster reform on Voting Rights,

[Unelectable Bystander]

I would advise against using 538’s generic ballot as any sort of scientific measure. By my count, YouGov and Morning Consult make up 11 out of their 24 polls since the beginning of December, both of which hackishly show an inflexible D+4 result without ever showing a Biden approval above 45%. Even if these magical Biden disapproving/generic D approving voters do exist and are democrats, good luck getting them to show up for moderate swing districts D’s in an off year cycle when they don’t even like the party’s leader. At some point, it’s just wishing a blue wave into existence like 2020 and then wondering why institutions are distrusted.

[Pollster]

I would advise against using 538’s generic ballot as any sort of scientific measure. By my count, YouGov and Morning Consult make up 11 out of their 24 polls since the beginning of December, both of which hackishly show an inflexible D+4 result without ever showing a Biden approval above 45%. Even if these magical Biden disapproving/generic D approving voters do exist and are democrats, good luck getting them to show up for moderate swing districts D’s in an off year cycle when they don’t even like the party’s leader. At some point, it’s just wishing a blue wave into existence like 2020 and then wondering why institutions are distrusted.

You might be right, but also worth considering the possibility that we're now in a period that will invariably be dominated by high-turnout, partisanship-driven competitive elections in which more volatile variables will exert less (though still some) influence, not dissimilar to the late 1800's. Consistent, margin-of-error leads like this despite notable movement on other questions a strong sign of that.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I would advise against using 538’s generic ballot as any sort of scientific measure. By my count, YouGov and Morning Consult make up 11 out of their 24 polls since the beginning of December, both of which hackishly show an inflexible D+4 result without ever showing a Biden approval above 45%. Even if these magical Biden disapproving/generic D approving voters do exist and are democrats, good luck getting them to show up for moderate swing districts D’s in an off year cycle when they don’t even like the party’s leader. At some point, it’s just wishing a blue wave into existence like 2020 and then wondering why institutions are distrusted.

You might be right, but also worth considering the possibility that we're now in a period that will invariably be dominated by high-turnout, partisanship-driven competitive elections in which more volatile variables will exert less (though still some) influence, not dissimilar to the late 1800's. Consistent, margin-of-error leads like this despite notable movement on other questions a strong sign of that.

There may be some evidence of that in presidential year elections, but not in this midterm environment.
1. Voters in 2021, if anything, seemed more likely to cross over. IIRC there was a large cohort of people that don’t regret voting for Biden but voted Youngkin + straight ticket R’s. Also, 2021 saw massive increases in unaffiliated voter registrations with decreases in the two major parties
2. There’s no evidence that turnout is high for Dem’s currently. Actual elections and all available polling show an enthusiasm gap between conservatives and liberals, but YouGov refuses to acknowledge this in their poll weighting

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.

[SnowLabrador]

Based on Biden's approval rating, undecideds likely lean Republican.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.

Biden's approval is 33% in the same poll.. the undecideds will dramatically lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is no way gonna be the final result on Election night 2022 that represents now, I expect the D's to do better than this

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1481342334633533440?t=FnEImskpB2SKvmIN...

7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.

Biden's approval is 33% in the same poll.. the undecideds will dramatically lean R.

not necessarily. the reason his overall approval is 33% is things like a <30% approval among 18-34 years olds, who are not voting R.