2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

NRCC poll of 85 "battleground" congressional districts-

GCB:
Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Biden approval: 45/51 (down from 51/45 in July)

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NRCC-October-Battleground-Memo-FINAL.pdf

What are these 85 districts?  There are literally probably only 45 Dems in anything close to battleground districts.

The document doesn't say, which suggests that those districts lean Republican more than the nation or the likely House tipping point. Furthermore, while it boasting about a 6-point swing from the 'start of the cycle' sounds good, that does not sound like a comparison with the 2020 margins in those districts. Instead, because Biden's approval was quite high at that point, their polls then may have suggested something like a 2018-style national environment, we do not know. The demographic data does look concerning, but again there is not enough information. So this is a publicity stunt that gives us hardly any useful information.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult
GCB
10/22-24

Democrats 44%
Republicans 42%

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/27/republican-midterm-enthusiasm/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's don't need to be even on CGB they need a big lead they have to overcome TX Gerrymandering

We already know D's are gonna keep it close, because the Senate reaffirm the blue wall but 2024/ OH, AZ, MT and WV are Vulnerable if there isn't any DC Statehood with wave insurance the S is lost

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1454798822182371331?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

COVID is going down by Nov 2022, people want Covid fixed and fast and it's unlikely because no matter whom is in office we Know immigrants in the country even Trump we got Covid with him building the Wall, there isn't anything different Rs will do than Biden to Eradicate Covid

We still have diseases long after we have the vaccine, we still have the flu and TB eventhough we have cures for them

[wbrocks67]

The ironic part about this is that Bidens RV approval in the last poll was +2, and Ds were +1 on GCB. Now Bidens approval is -7, but the GCB is higher at +2.

[Matty]

The ironic part about this is that Bidens RV approval in the last poll was +2, and Ds were +1 on GCB. Now Bidens approval is -7, but the GCB is higher at +2.

Go ahead believing that democrats will win the midterms with Biden approvals at -12

It would be the single most astounding political event since the civil war

[2016]

Republicans do not need to win the House Vote in 2022 to retake the House.

Even if Democrats win let's say 49-47 in 2022 Republicans would take the House.

[Person Man]

Republicans do not need to win the House Vote in 2022 to retake the House.

Even if Democrats win let's say 49-47 in 2022 Republicans would take the House.

They only won by 3 in 2020 and the map should be slightly better for them.

[wbrocks67]

NPR/Marist/PBS
GCB

Dems 44%
Rep 41%

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_B_202110251104.pdf

[Mr.Phips]

Current environment probably means a 2010/2014 House popular vote (maybe a little better due to more polarization) of around 52%-46%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Current environment probably means a 2010/2014 House popular vote (maybe a little better due to more polarization) of around 52%-46%.

The Election is in a yr and Covid cases are declining don't count your chickens before they hatch, Trump is polarizing too because the R brand name is tied to him he is at 37 percent, if you think that Rs are gonna have the Majorities that had in 2000s think again, Boehner and Paul Ryan were effective unlike McCarthy whom is an Insurrectionists

Rs had 240 seats after 2014 due to Boehner and Ryan not Mccarthy

Even if Rs do take the H it will be a 1 yr probation because Biden has the veto pen for 2 yrs and any Govt shutdown would be on Rs not Pelosi

Rs can't pass anything they want unless Trump or DeSantis becomes Prez if Biden isn't at 50 percent in 2022 he will be in 2024 to regain H of Rep

Rs won't be able to pass anything unless Biden approves of it, Biden will veto any tax cuts for the rich

Just like Rs think that OH is safe and Josh Mandel isn't Rob Portman, he has been tied in every poll with Ryan

Rs success depends on only holding Biden Approvals down below 50 and we he gets above it, D's win

[Lief 🗽]

Imagine thinking that the Democrats are anywhere close to leading the generic ballot after tonight. These polls are total junk!

[Devils30]

R+6 type of environment

[ElectionsGuy]

With what just happened in Virginia and New Jersey, I don't buy any poll that currently has Dems in the lead for the generic ballot.

They're behind, it's just a matter of how behind they are, and whether they can improve this or not before 2022.

[MATTROSE94]

R+6 type of environment

I am thinking that 2022 will result in the Republicans possibly having a clean sweep of around 80% of the Senate races and maybe having a net pickup of around 100 House seats.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1455870033867988998

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1455870033867988998

LOL VA10 is obviously shrinking so much.  All the way back to Leesburg.

IN01 is even a bigger meme.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1455929500802424836?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1455929500802424836?s=20

Sadly, I think that makes more sense than the D+3 polls we'd been getting.

[ElectionsGuy]

R+6 type of environment

I am thinking that 2022 will result in the Republicans possibly having a clean sweep of around 80% of the Senate races and maybe having a net pickup of around 100 House seats.

Maybe if Republicans had previously been wiped out like during the great depression. That's completely impossible today, with 213 current seats + 160ish deep blue districts that never go R in any scenario.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1455870033867988998

LOL VA10 is obviously shrinking so much.  All the way back to Leesburg.

IN01 is even a bigger meme.

IN01 seems like it could genuinely be in play given Dem collapse in working class areas of  south Jersey yesterday and general trends.

The new VA10 obviously not.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1456659097479049218?t=33xSCBkII-JystV6...

[SnowLabrador]

Democracy was fun while it lasted.

[2016]

So it begins!