2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Doomers normally: Polling is dead

Doomers when an R+4 poll comes out: OH MY GOD F@CK THE AVERAGES THIS ONE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS UP THIS IS LITERALLY THE END OF DEMOCRACY

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.

Weren't you the one who said Kennedy would defeat Markey by at least 15 points?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1582360793063964672
👀

Throw your money away, I guess.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

One thing different from last year is the Dems have not completely cratered with independents and even led in Fox News, CBS Battleground (but not Siena).

The warning signs with independents were there in VA:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne6DjNT-3vLGgPHEd-dvFjDF3ouU7Xdyo_p4bpyPSv8/edit#gid=0

This year you don't really see these splits and in some cases (especially GA, AZ) you see Dems winning indies outright.

RCP also made the "certain to vote" crowd their number for the Harris and Fox News poll. Their mission is to gaslight and create the narrative this thing is over.

I still have the Senate tilting Democratic, and agree that RCP are hacks who should mostly be ignored. Still, feeling more nervous than I was a week or two ago.

One key thing to think about is that Biden's approval rating only peaked a week or two ago, and the Atlas groupthink had already declared several upswings and downswings for Democrats during that period.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Besides, it's not like the super conservatives can't be pains to McConnell too. I mean during his time in leadership he's had to deal with Jim DeMint, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul, with Cruz even shutting down the government.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RCP unironically moved NY-SEN to Likely.

They only use Trafalgar and GOP internals, no surprise there.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

REMINDER: If your mental health is being affected by individual changes in polls, just don't follow this thread. It will be helpful in the long run.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is what Vosem predicts will happen if Dems don't embrace axing social security and Medicare:

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

Bookmarked; the former especially I think will happen before the end of the decade. (Or at least something sold as Obamacare repeal, even if it's actually just cosmetic). The latter eventually, within our lifetimes.

You are completely nuts for thinking this, and you are without a doubt one of the most out-of-touch people I've ever seen on Atlas.

Vosem makes me look like Che Guevara.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

You know it’s a bad cycle for Democrats when Morning Consult is the best they got.

Is there a pollster you actually think is trustworthy this cycle?

Rasmussen and Trafalgar.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.

There's also a pretty strong correlation with the youth vote.

If the poll has youths at like D+10 (like this, NYT/Siena LV model, Monmouth, etc.), then they come out to about R+4/5.

If the poll has youths at like D+20-25, like the CBS or NBC poll for example (that mirrors the Harvard poll out today among youth voters), it's closer to tied.

As a young person I laugh at the idea that 40% of us would vote for someone who hates us, wants to kill us by ignoring climate change, and wants to make us die on the street from defunding social security.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Even some of the GOP hacks are admitting only a mildly R or neutral environment.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Rasmussen is back up to R+7 today, so that put a stop to any momentum Ds had on the ballot tracker, lol.

Rasmussen is actually a Election Twitter psyop to win their PredictIt bets.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

There is still weird Democratic strength with moderates and independents in the AZ, WI FOX polls and even the PA one.

Perhaps because Mark Kelly has a moderate persona and Masters is a Twitter edgelord?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

To enact their agenda.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What's this about Dems not releasing their trash internals? Didn't we get a Kelly +20 and a Ryan +13 from Center Street?