2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3819

45-42 D...D+3.

Biden approval at -18 with indies and yet D +2 with the same group.

[Devils30]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

[Devils30]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

I mean, these people exist. I should know; I'm one of them. I cannot stand Joe Biden, he's not using his bully pulpit nearly enough, but I'm still going to vote blue in '22.

Last night's Cali results also suggest these doomsayer numbers are not true. You can't draw conclusions but Dems are clearly still in the game for 2022 in House.

[Devils30]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

Pollsters using their 2010 and 2014 turnout models are already getting them in huge trouble. It should be pretty clear after Virginia in 6 weeks that the Dems are still showing up to vote and pollsters should adjust accordingly.

[Devils30]

2018 Gov nominee and Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro is running against Delgado in NY-19.

https://twitter.com/timesunion/status/1439274036664602628?s=21

Dems definitely need to redraw this seat to make it more Dem.

They will, it will probably extend up north and take in blue parts east of Albany while shedding the redder sections to the west.

[Devils30]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h4zvi2yb6c/econTabReport.pdf

D+4 on the generic ballot. Not really seeing much crossover from 2020 Biden or 2020 Trump voters here despite Biden's mediocre approval

[Devils30]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/biden-approval-ratings.html

The fact that Biden has kept most of his white college, older voter support is definitely a different dynamic than 2010. The truth is a lot of very smart elections people really do not know what will happen in 2022, the last time we were polarized like this was 1876-1900, before polling began.

[Devils30]

Already seems like a better candidate than Finello-

https://twitter.com/ashley_ehasz/status/1447879730682896385

No chance unless the PA supreme court decides to crack Philly and make PA-1 a Biden +17 type of seat. IMO very unlikely.

[Devils30]

Already seems like a better candidate than Finello-

https://twitter.com/ashley_ehasz/status/1447879730682896385

No chance unless the PA supreme court decides to crack Philly and make PA-1 a Biden +17 type of seat. IMO very unlikely.

Yup. Likely R with Fitzpatrick, much closer to Safe than Lean. And this district isn't likely to change much.

Best chance for Ds is for him to lose primary to a MAGA challenger. But Rs won't get him voting to overturn elections, that's why he's much more popular than generic R.

Wonder if KY GOP is more tempted to crack Louisville now, the center-left KY Sup. Ct is a big obstacle for that though.

[Devils30]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

They had bad numbers early in the year for NC Dems as well.

[Devils30]

R+6 type of environment

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1480559532728274954

Hot take: Malinowski is more likely to lose than Golden.

His best chance is Kean getting MAGA'ed and beating a way too far right R.

[Devils30]

It was taken right after the leaked ruling...give it weeks/months before we see if it moves anything.

[Devils30]

Again...there's reason to think that some of the more controversial Rs will underperform the generic ballot considerably. The clips of major GOP candidates opposing abortion exceptions are not the thing people off this board will care about in May but they will make for great ads after Labor Day.

[Devils30]

The sample is R+3 and 31% with college degree, very R friendly. That said, it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_051222/


The public remains divided on whether they prefer to have the Republicans (36%) or the Democrats (34%) in control of Congress. Pushing for “leaners” among those who initially say party control does not matter adds 12% to the GOP column and 10% for the Democrats. The combined 48% Republican and 44% Democrat split represents statistically insignificant shifts since March (45% Republican and 46% Democrat) and January (50% Republican and 43% Democrat).

Looks like R+4 not 7

[Devils30]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

[Devils30]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

[Devils30]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

[Devils30]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

[Devils30]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

The only way you get D+2 in the Senate is if Dems win the popular vote by at least as much as they did in 2020.

Note the BEST realistic scenario part of what I said, not the median outcome. The median outcome is prob 20-28 R gains in house and 2 in Senate.

[Devils30]

Malinowski (NJ-7) raises $1.3M in Q2, has $4.2M cash on hand

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-scores-humungous-fundraising-haul-in-nj-7-re-election-bid/

One of the seats that Dobbs is a bad bet for Rs, even if Kean wins the GOP is on borrowed time here.

[Devils30]

Hoping that this NYT/Siena national poll eventually has a GCB in it... assuming they're just reporting different poll results each day to milk it for all its worth

It has a GCB and is 41-40 D. I do think just like the hypothetical Biden Trump matchup that Ds margin with Hispanics probably understated and a bit exaggerated with white college.

[Devils30]

Not like Biden’s approval in the poll overall was much higher

[Devils30]

Fox has GCB at R+3, 44-41.

They had it at R+3 in June as well, 47-44.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-say-economy-bad-expect-get-worse?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&mibextid=CqRI5M&fs=e&s=cl

The sample is a little high on "abortion should be illegal" at 46% based on national polls in the past but Fox is a solid pollster.

[Devils30]

Biden also has a 31% approval rating in that poll. Crazy stuff.

I mean the crosstabs are pretty whacky. They still have 18-34 year olds at like 25/63 approval and then Latinos at like 19/71. (yet Latinos are near equal on GCB for ex)

Other polls have Ds up 20 with Latinos. I would be careful with these lower quality polls, Ds are probably not up 19 with white college as the CNN suggested but also not down with Hispanics. The special election evidence is mixed, no gains from 2020 in urban California and modest margin increases with rural Hispanics for GOP. In NJ Murphy actually matched or exceeded Biden in heavily Hispanic urban towns like Paterson, Union City. It was both white college and WWC he was 12-15% below 2017 with. Most Hispanics are not rural gun-toting social conservatives like Zapata county!