2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3819

45-42 D...D+3.

Biden approval at -18 with indies and yet D +2 with the same group.

If Quinnipiac only has D+3, it will be a red wave.

[SnowLabrador]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

I mean, these people exist. I should know; I'm one of them. I cannot stand Joe Biden, he's not using his bully pulpit nearly enough, but I'm still going to vote blue in '22.

[SnowLabrador]

Axne +4 against Zach Nunn in a Nunn internal - caveat that this poll is of the old district lines.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1438488649830653957?s=20

So Nunn +2 under the old IA-03? That's believable.

[SnowLabrador]

D+8 in the polls is probably D+2-3 in actuality. It would take little short of a miracle for Democrats to hold either chamber of Congress, especially the House.

[SnowLabrador]

Isn't that an Iowa poll? Iowa is a very Republican state.

It's red, but it's not that red unless it's a massive red wave of Biblical proportions.

[SnowLabrador]

January 6 was not a protest.

[SnowLabrador]

2022 Senate outlook:

First forecast for the next election season!  We are still over a year away so expect things to change a bit.  Pretty narrow playing field for both sides, with only 6-10 competitive races at the moment.

I have a pretty good track record (check my past predictions), and hoping this will continue. I've developed a new election model, but this is the first time it will be used on a US election.  I predicted the popular vote in the Canadian federal elections nearly perfect using this new model, so fingers crossed this is providing an accurate outlook as to what's going on and unskewing biased polling.  Gubernational outlook coming in the new year.



No tossups:


Margins:
Colorado +9 Dem
Pennsylvania +5 Dem
Arizona +3 Dem
Nevada +2 Dem
New Hampshire +1 Dem
Georgia +1 Rep
Wisconsin +5 Rep
North Carolina +7 Rep
Ohio +10 Rep
Florida +10 Rep

Pennsylvania isn't voting 10 points to the left of Wisconsin. And I think Kelly would lose before Warnock, since Georgia is trending leftward faster than Arizona.

[SnowLabrador]

Rs pick up New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada while holding all their current seats.

At this point, that seems likely.

[SnowLabrador]

Fundraising means next to nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Rubio won by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not going to try and unskew this poll, but the wording of these questions seems biased towards the GOP. That said, I do expect 2022 to be a bloodbath for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

They had bad numbers early in the year for NC Dems as well.

Of course they had bad numbers for Democrats, they're a Republican pollster. Doesn't mean they can't be accurate, of course.

[SnowLabrador]

IA-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +18 (55-37)
Biden favorability: 40/59 (-19)

Conducted October 18 - 19, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

That's rather sobering, to say the least. Obviously Iowa is well to the right of the national average, but it's not that red unless it's going to be a bloodbath.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1455929500802424836?s=20

Sadly, I think that makes more sense than the D+3 polls we'd been getting.

[SnowLabrador]

Democracy was fun while it lasted.

[SnowLabrador]

Voters have ridiculously short memories, what the F**K is wrong with this country?

[SnowLabrador]

I think it'll be either 54 or 55 Republicans in the Senate come 2023. That hinges on Colorado. That would mean the tipping-point state is the one Democrats lose by the largest margin, which I think is Arizona.

[SnowLabrador]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Keep in mind - there will also be less competitive districts next year.

Nothing short of Biden +12 is going blue in 2022. Hence why I think CO-SEN is a tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

Nadler's potential retirement is more evidence, if it were needed, that 2022 will be a bloodbath for the Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

It's looking grim for Democrats, sure, but I don't see them losing every race by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

Asymmetric polarization will be the end of this country, I swear.

[SnowLabrador]

If Quinnipiac is finding R+8, we're in for a shellacking worse than 2010.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Polarization is driven by increased hatred of the party we oppose, not increased love for our own party. I hate the Democratic Party, but I have to vote for it.