Should Democrats give up on North Carolina?

[Hope For A New Era]

No. The reason for the state's stubbornness is that, uniquely among Southern states, Democrats still have a little bit of room to fall in (non-black, non-Appalachian) rural NC, which right now is canceling out the leftward movement of the suburbs. Once Republicans hit the rural ceiling, which will probably be happening sooner rather than later at this point, the suburbs will catch up and the state will become Titanium Tilt D.


Abandon Florida completely. Even for Senate seats, unless there's a truly magical candidate (a Cuban with strong appeal to both WWC and suburbs). Shift all Florida resources into North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas (in that order).

Also, do the Stacey Abrams strategy in North Carolina. That is, don't make persuasion a major part of the campaign, because it doesn't work under polarization, especially not in an inelastic Southern state. Campaign to the middle of the Democratic Party rather than to the middle of the electorate, register as many voters as possible, and try to drive D turnout up and R turnout down (extreme GOTV + ads that make Republican candidates "disappointing").

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A state that was decided by less than a point and a half is obviously competitive and I don't know why anyone would think otherwise.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Obviously not. The pro-R rural/small-town swing/trend was either non-existent or nowhere near as strong as some had predicted. What saved Republicans was the fact that several populous blood-red exurbs actually trended R and that D gains in the metros weren’t as dramatic as they could have been (no guarantee that this will continue into the future).

I had thought that this election would cement the state's status as (strong) lean R, but it is looking more like a Tilt R state to me now. It’s also one of only three states to have trended D in every election since 2004 (WA and AK are the other two).

The D trend is slowing down though, it trended D+1 in 2012, D+ by a few decimal points in 2016, and trended around D +.5 in 2020, it is looks to be around R+ 5.5 this year. It is trending D but very slowly compared to AZ, GA, VA.

[DabbingSanta]

Uh.... no.  It is a tilt Republican state but one with favorable demographic trends.

Recent presidential results:

2020: +1.4 R
2016: +3.6 R
2012: +2.0 R
2008: +0.3 D

Recent senate results:

2020: +0.8 R
2016: +5.7 R
2014: +1.5 R
2010: +11.7 R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, NC, GA are better battlegrounds than FL due to Cuban Embargo if Jeff Jackson runs he would be fav over Lara Trump.  Dems with Biden on the ballot can win GA and NC and the NC Gov in 2024 will be a tossup

That's why Graham and Rubio went so far as to say Biden deserves his Cabinet
.

Klobuchar or Booker AG
Grisham HHS Secretary
King will wind up in Cabinet Labor Secretary or some other cabinet post, Gideon wants King seat Bernie will not get Cabinet since Scott would trigger a Special Election
Teresa Greenfield SoA.gruculture

[Typhoon2000]

No, Trump’s margin was much smaller than his in 2016 in NC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I went back and forth on this, no they only lost it by 150K votes

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Nah but they're always so bullish on the state but end up disappointed. It's kinda funny.

Looks like North Carolina is Titanium Tilt R. The new Florida  

At least NC Swung D in 2020 and Ds won 4/10 Council of State elections.

[tanairi8]

2008 may have been the peak for this state.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Nah but they're always so bullish on the state but end up disappointed. It's kinda funny.

Looks like North Carolina is Titanium Tilt R. The new Florida  

At least NC Swung D in 2020 and Ds won 4/10 Council of State elections.

In 2012 the Dems won 6/10 of the Council of State seats despite Romney winning the state by a greater margin than Trump '20 and McCrory winning the governor's chair quite comfortably. The state is in trend limbo.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Biden would have won it if not for the Sandhills and the Black Belt swinging r. I'm surprised at how much Northeastern NC Swung R considering black voters did not swing too much r.

[MargieCat]

Of all the states Trump won, this is the one that I see flipping to the democrats the soonest.

Texas still has at least one or two cycles to go.

Democrats can win all their 2020 states minus WI/MI/PA and flip NC and they would win.

GA/AZ/NC could be the new WI/MI/PA.

I'm not one to dwell on the national average. 1.3 is not a comfortable margin for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, with the improving Economy, Jeff Jackson has much more to f chance now than when he first announced D's are putting all their money on NH, AZ, NV, GA, PA and NC for at least a 52 seat Majority so filibuster can be dissolved

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If anything they should double-down on GA/NC, de-prioritize FL and give up on IA & OH.

And by de-prioritize FL, I mean move it down the ranks of battleground states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems and David Plouff and James Carville said that NC is still a battleground state, and we will find out if Jeff Jackson has a chance PPP polls are headquartered in NC

[un]

No No No No No, hell no. There is a clear path in North Carolina, it just needs to be carved out. Remember, Trump did not win the state by very much, only by about 1.3 points. If Democrats can keep their upward swing in the suburbs and the urban areas, it can be similar to Georgia in how it went blue.  If it went to Trump by Florida margins, I'd be far more bleak about it, but in its current state, I'm not at all ready to leave it behind.

[pbrower2a]

On a national scale a Party is looking for opportunities -- even if it is Jones versus Moore or Gardner vs. Udall. Who knows? Maybe blue-collar workers in the Rust Belt prefer low taxes that starve formal education above K-12? Who knows? Maybe blue-collar white workers in the South will realize that the neo-Confederate Right has nothing to offer, and the South goes back to its old anti-plutocratic populism that won elections for Carter and Clinton. Demographics may now overpower personalities.

[Motorcity]

No, we shouldn't give up on it

It will flip, but we need to keep working at it. Maybe the demographics will be there in 2024. Maybe not,

But it won't matter if we don't work on it in 2022

We won Georgia (and the senate) in 2020. The trends got us here. But it still wouldn't have mattered if Stacy Abrams didn't put in the work in 2018

We need to double down on the key states we can win (MI/WI/PA/GA/AZ/NC/MN/NV/NH) and give up on OH/IW/FL. I like our chances in TX/KS/and AK and maybe even SC

That said, always look for opportunity like Alabama 2017.

[Nyssus]

I thought this was a SirWoodbury thread for a second there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a D 5 Environment D's will net 54/46 Senate, but we must expand the battleground, if we only focus on PA, WI, GA, AZ and NV we fall short in the House, if we net 54 seats we are assured a House majority.

OH is winnable too Josh Mandel is beatable and we don't have a Gubernatorial nominee yet and NC we won the Gov race in 2020

[Xing]

"Should Republicans give up on Wisconsin/Pennsylvania?" While the trend is overestimated in the state, that doesn't mean it isn't competitive.

[kwabbit]

It's about 6 points to the right of the nation and it should remain around there for a while. Boomer retirees are now moving to the state in droves, and the rural Whites are still in the process of realigning to the Republican party. The suburbs continue to zoom left, but these counteracting trends keep NC in a familiar place: a state that looks firmly within the Democratic grasp during polling but one that slips away as the Republicans are underestimated.

It's been 12 years since Obama won in 2008, and in 2014, 2016, and 2020 the Republicans won after faulty polling indicated a Dem senatorial victory. In 2016 and 2020 faulty polling indicated a Dem presidential victory.

The Dems shouldn't give up on the state but it needs to be acknowledged the state that the state is a reach state that can only really be won in special circumstances. 2018 would've been the year for a Dem victory.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm very bearish on this state but Roy Cooper managing to be re-elected gives me a slight bit of hope especially when compared to Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. With some work I do think that Democrats can win here again eventually at the presidential level, the problem is that they haven't figured out a blueprint like with Georgia. So I don't think they should give up completely, even if it is being incredibly stubborn.

[West_Midlander]

I think NC will be lean R for a while longer but will probably be 'perpetually' lean D for a while after that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs believe we can't win NC because we lost the Prez race, we still have Gov Cooper.  In a large enough wave D's net 54/46 seats

Which is next yr not this year, and Cook and Sabato haven't put out their ratings on the House it's not over until they say the House is officially gone

As for NC, PPP will eventually poll NC since it's headquartered in NC