Should Democrats give up on North Carolina?

[Talleyrand]

Yes.

After a decade of hype and hundreds of millions set on fire in this state, Democrats have continually failed to win it. In 2014, 2016, and 2020, they also dramatically underperformed polling.

Republicans, meanwhile, have plenty of room for improvement in many areas across the state.

It's time to pack it up and concentrate on the core 25 states. Biden's will be the biggest Dem win in a generation, and he still couldn't close the deal here!

[VAR]

Nah but they're always so bullish on the state but end up disappointed every time. It's kinda funny.

[John Dule]

Given how anemic Biden's campaign was, I think a stronger Democratic candidate could easily win in NC. Whether or not such a candidate will come around anytime soon is another question.

[WD]

Nah but they're always so bullish on the state but end up disappointed. It's kinda funny.

Looks like North Carolina is Titanium Tilt R. The new Florida  

[redjohn]

Not anymore than Rs should give up on Wisconsin/Michigan...

[Ferguson97]

2020: R+1.34
2016: R+3.66
2012: R+2.04
2008: D+0.32

No. These are all reasonable margins to keep trying.

[MargieCat]

No.

Some democrats did win downballot. Which means that people are ok with ticketsplitting.

Plus the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte are growing at a fast rate, with more liberal voters coming in.

It will follow in Georgia's footsteps.

Florida on the other hand seems like a lost cause.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC's rapid shift left in 2008 has certainly stalled for the time being, but that does not mean it is unwinnable. NC's biggest issue is it lacks a main urban center like Atlanta where Democrats can run up massive vote margins to offset the rural areas of the state. Until Charlotte/Raleigh can get to the margins you see in Atlanta, NC is going to be hard to win for Democrats.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Definitely not given that they just won the Governorship and several other row offices.

[Bomster]

No. Trump only won it by less than 2 points.

[pppolitics]

NC's rapid shift left in 2008 has certainly stalled for the time being, but that does not mean it is unwinnable. NC's biggest issue is it lacks a main urban center like Atlanta where Democrats can run up massive vote margins to offset the rural areas of the state. Until Charlotte/Raleigh can get to the margins you see in Atlanta, NC is going to be hard to win for Democrats.

That's not even the problem.

The problem is that, in NC, Democrats still have room to collapse in the rural areas, but not in GA or VA.

You see a lot of rural areas in VA and GA where Democrats get <20% of the vote and you don't see that in NC.

Basically, the gains Democrats get in the urban area is cancelled by rural swinging Republican.

[It’s so Joever]

Given how anemic Biden's campaign was, I think a stronger Democratic candidate could easily win in NC. Whether or not such a candidate will come around anytime soon is another question.

Got it, we should nominate Tim Ryan.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina has slowly but consistently trended Dem in every election since 2004. Biden lost it by a little more than 1. The answer is clearly no.

[Frenchrepublican]

Obviously no, but NC is certainly not a true swing state like PA or WI, the state is winnable for democrats as long they are already winning the PV by 6 points or more, so yeah they should continue to target it but they should not count on it.

[Frenchrepublican]

North Carolina has slowly but consistently trended Dem in every election since 2004. Biden lost it by a little more than 1. The answer is clearly no.

If Biden wins the PV by 4.5 the state won't have trended D this year

[Frenchrepublican]

No.

Some democrats did win downballot. Which means that people are ok with ticketsplitting.

Plus the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte are growing at a fast rate, with more liberal voters coming in.

It will follow in Georgia's footsteps.

Florida on the other hand seems like a lost cause.

Unlikely. There a lot of differences between these two states.

[cwh2018]

They should continue to try to win in NC as they already well behind the GOP in terms of red states and blue states.  Biden won 6 states this year that were to the right of the national average.  In terms of the senate the state is still joint best with Florida to target and with current trends only really Texas may join the group at present near the end of this decade.  NC is like Nevada for the GOP the dems can get to 47-48 no problem but have a real hard time closing the deal.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina has slowly but consistently trended Dem in every election since 2004. Biden lost it by a little more than 1. The answer is clearly no.

If Biden wins the PV by 4.5 the state won't have trended D this year

That's true. We'll have to see for sure, but the long-term trend has been clear. It just seems stalled out because Dems haven't had a federal level victory there in a while.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It does seem like NC's leftward's trend has somewhat stalled since 2008, but I think Democrats should invest in the state, maybe they'll be able to push it to only R+4 or so.

[McGarnagle]

Giving up is not how elections are won. You might not win every state you set out to win but if you give up you're automatically increasing your opponent's chances of victory. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take, and all that.

[TDAS04]

Um, they lost it by a point, so no.

[Hammy]

NC is going to become the new Florida except it's trending in the opposite direction. Eventually it'll probably replace Florida as the bellwether in the South, what purpose would there be to give up on it?

[MATTROSE94]

No. North Carolina will probably narrowly vote Democratic in 2024. It’ll be titanium tilt Democratic by 2032.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cal Cunningham ineptness contributed his loss in NC

[Chips]

Nah but they're always so bullish on the state but end up disappointed every time. It's kinda funny.

This. It should certainly be declared a slight lean R state right now but it will grow more competitive in the future. I predict 2036 or so will be the next time a Dem wins it.