Columbia County, New York

[AGA]

Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 10% better than Clinton in all these counties.

I doubt Trump's margin in Rockland holds up; there is a lot of mail-in vote left. Clinton was definitely weak in the exurban parts of the Hudson Valley, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't beat her margin in Westchester.

[AGA]

Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 10% better than Clinton in all these counties.

I doubt Trump's margin in Rockland holds up; there is a lot of mail-in vote left. Clinton was definitely weak in the exurban parts of the Hudson Valley, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't beat her margin in Westchester.

Biden will still win Rockland but he's obviously not going to perform like he is like in other counties in the area. Unless a lot more Republicans are crossing over relatively in Rockland than other counties then Biden's margin in the county will be smaller than Clinton's (basing this off the absentee partisan return data).

I've been using REP/CON percentage of ballots to predict Trump's vote share and it has actually been very predictive in the counties reporting results. Few examples (final margins) -

Broome: predicted Biden+1.7% actual Biden+3.4%
Columbia: predicted Biden+17.5% actual Biden+16.0% (note, still around 1k outstanding)
Chautaqua: predicted Trump+18.4% actual Trump+19.9%
Monroe: predicted Biden+20.4% actual +20.8%
Putnam: predicted Trump+6.8% actual Trump+7.9%
Rensselaer: predicted Biden+6.85% actual Biden+6.82%

Right now I have Rockland at Biden+4.9%, possible it goes higher if the actual amount of returned ballots in Rockland is considerably higher than what was initially reported after election day, but they were already at about 75% return rate so it might not get too much higher.

Clinton only won Rockland by about 6%, so that would be a slight R swing, which I think may be explained by Orthodox Jews swinging R.

[AGA]

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

[AGA]

Looks like Biden won Rockland County by less than two points.