Columbia County, New York
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Author Topic: Columbia County, New York  (Read 1815 times)
mileslunn
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« on: November 18, 2020, 07:17:06 PM »

Noticed Biden won Columbia County by around 16 points and while other New York counties still have ballots to count, how come this largely rural is so Democrat?  Also noticed Renssaeler County has flipped from Clinton to Biden but it has some Albany suburbs so that one makes sense.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2020, 07:24:02 PM »

There was apparently a big push by the Democrats to get people with weekend homes upstate who otherwise reside in NYC to change their voter registration to their upstate residences to push those areas left. I'm guessing this is a big part of the story.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2020, 07:28:34 PM »

There was apparently a big push by the Democrats to get people with weekend homes upstate who otherwise reside in NYC to change their voter registration to their upstate residences to push those areas left. I'm guessing this is a big part of the story.

Interesting.  I thought Ulster county which usually goes Democrat is where a lot of New Yorkers move to and thus why it is more liberal, but didn't realize Columbia County is as well.  Perhaps also get some Boston residents too as almost equal distant between NYC and Boston.
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n1240
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2020, 07:42:12 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2020, 08:10:03 PM by n1240 »

Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 7% better than Clinton in all these counties.
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AGA
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2020, 07:45:25 PM »

Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 10% better than Clinton in all these counties.

I doubt Trump's margin in Rockland holds up; there is a lot of mail-in vote left. Clinton was definitely weak in the exurban parts of the Hudson Valley, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't beat her margin in Westchester.
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n1240
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2020, 08:07:57 PM »

Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 10% better than Clinton in all these counties.

I doubt Trump's margin in Rockland holds up; there is a lot of mail-in vote left. Clinton was definitely weak in the exurban parts of the Hudson Valley, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't beat her margin in Westchester.

Biden will still win Rockland but he's obviously not going to perform like he is like in other counties in the area. Unless a lot more Republicans are crossing over relatively in Rockland than other counties then Biden's margin in the county will be smaller than Clinton's (basing this off the absentee partisan return data).

I've been using REP/CON percentage of ballots to predict Trump's vote share and it has actually been very predictive in the counties reporting results. Few examples (final margins) -

Broome: predicted Biden+1.7% actual Biden+3.4%
Columbia: predicted Biden+17.5% actual Biden+16.0% (note, still around 1k outstanding)
Chautaqua: predicted Trump+18.4% actual Trump+19.9%
Monroe: predicted Biden+20.4% actual +20.8%
Putnam: predicted Trump+6.8% actual Trump+7.9%
Rensselaer: predicted Biden+6.85% actual Biden+6.82%

Right now I have Rockland at Biden+4.9%, possible it goes higher if the actual amount of returned ballots in Rockland is considerably higher than what was initially reported after election day, but they were already at about 75% return rate so it might not get too much higher.
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AGA
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2020, 08:14:58 PM »

Seems like Hudson Valley (with exception of Rockland) and outlying areas are just bouncing back to Obama margins, maybe Clinton was just particularly weak here? Rensselaer, Columbia, Putnam and Otsego all have near complete vote counts and Biden is performing more than 10% better than Clinton in all these counties.

I doubt Trump's margin in Rockland holds up; there is a lot of mail-in vote left. Clinton was definitely weak in the exurban parts of the Hudson Valley, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't beat her margin in Westchester.

Biden will still win Rockland but he's obviously not going to perform like he is like in other counties in the area. Unless a lot more Republicans are crossing over relatively in Rockland than other counties then Biden's margin in the county will be smaller than Clinton's (basing this off the absentee partisan return data).

I've been using REP/CON percentage of ballots to predict Trump's vote share and it has actually been very predictive in the counties reporting results. Few examples (final margins) -

Broome: predicted Biden+1.7% actual Biden+3.4%
Columbia: predicted Biden+17.5% actual Biden+16.0% (note, still around 1k outstanding)
Chautaqua: predicted Trump+18.4% actual Trump+19.9%
Monroe: predicted Biden+20.4% actual +20.8%
Putnam: predicted Trump+6.8% actual Trump+7.9%
Rensselaer: predicted Biden+6.85% actual Biden+6.82%

Right now I have Rockland at Biden+4.9%, possible it goes higher if the actual amount of returned ballots in Rockland is considerably higher than what was initially reported after election day, but they were already at about 75% return rate so it might not get too much higher.

Clinton only won Rockland by about 6%, so that would be a slight R swing, which I think may be explained by Orthodox Jews swinging R.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2020, 08:41:22 PM »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2020, 08:56:47 PM »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2020, 09:11:14 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2020, 09:15:39 PM by lfromnj »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

New Square in Rockland might have gotten bribed by Bill 20 years ago so they voted for Hillary but they voted for Trump this year probably.
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AGA
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2020, 02:57:11 PM »

Looks like Biden won Rockland County by less than two points.
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n1240
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2020, 03:03:13 PM »

Looks like Biden won Rockland County by less than two points.

Reposting this from main thread -

2016 vs 2020 margin by township in Rockland:

Clarkstown: Clinton+8.1% to Biden+15.3% (7.2% swing D)
Haverstraw: Clinton+23.3% to Biden+23.6% (.3% swing D)
Orangetown: Clinton+2.1% to Biden+9.2% (7.1% swing D)
Ramapo: Clinton+7.4% to Trump+19.0% (26.4% swing R)
Stony Point: Trump+28.4% to Trump+17.4% (11.0% swing D)

Most Orthodox Jewish pop is centered in Ramapo.
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2020, 03:04:45 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 03:10:28 PM by Trends are MORE than real »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

Trump actually underperformed badly with Orthodox Jews in 2016 compared to McCain and Romney (although he still won them, as he'd say, BY A LOT!!!), so even if his performance with them this time had just been a reversion to the mean it still would have produced a fairly significant swing.

As for the subject of this thread, a lot of the easternmost parts of Upstate New York are culturally extensions of Western Massachusetts in the same way that Western Massachusetts is culturally an extension of Vermont. (The first Columbia County-based historical figure who comes to mind, for instance, is Edna St. Vincent Millay.) In good Democratic years, they vote like it.
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vileplume
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2020, 03:43:43 PM »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

As for the subject of this thread, a lot of the easternmost parts of Upstate New York are culturally extensions of Western Massachusetts in the same way that Western Massachusetts is culturally an extension of Vermont. (The first Columbia County-based historical figure who comes to mind, for instance, is Edna St. Vincent Millay.) In good Democratic years, they vote like it.

Do you know why the Western Massachusetts's liberal culture doesn't really seem to affect Hampden County where rural areas vote more 'normally' (i.e. Republican)? Obviously Hampden is a safe Democratic area but that's because of the cities such as Springfield and Holyoke. I've never really understood why Democratic strength with rural/small town voters suddenly disappears at the county boundary.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2020, 04:11:28 PM »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

Trump actually underperformed badly with Orthodox Jews in 2016 compared to McCain and Romney (although he still won them, as he'd say, BY A LOT!!!), so even if his performance with them this time had just been a reversion to the mean it still would have produced a fairly significant swing.

As for the subject of this thread, a lot of the easternmost parts of Upstate New York are culturally extensions of Western Massachusetts in the same way that Western Massachusetts is culturally an extension of Vermont. (The first Columbia County-based historical figure who comes to mind, for instance, is Edna St. Vincent Millay.) In good Democratic years, they vote like it.

It wasn't really an underperformance by Trump but more an overperformance by Clinton.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2020, 11:32:17 PM »

Rockland:


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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2020, 11:55:04 AM »

I wonder what Torie has to say about the results in Columbia County...
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« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2020, 01:30:36 PM »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

As for the subject of this thread, a lot of the easternmost parts of Upstate New York are culturally extensions of Western Massachusetts in the same way that Western Massachusetts is culturally an extension of Vermont. (The first Columbia County-based historical figure who comes to mind, for instance, is Edna St. Vincent Millay.) In good Democratic years, they vote like it.

Do you know why the Western Massachusetts's liberal culture doesn't really seem to affect Hampden County where rural areas vote more 'normally' (i.e. Republican)? Obviously Hampden is a safe Democratic area but that's because of the cities such as Springfield and Holyoke. I've never really understood why Democratic strength with rural/small town voters suddenly disappears at the county boundary.

I couldn't tell you the exact historical or sociological causality even though I've lived here for most of my life, but it's a widely-noted phenomenon with its own name. (The Wikipedia article suggests potential causes, but I don't buy any of them; for example, both sides of the Tofu Curtain are economically dominated these days by higher education and "research", but only to the north of the Holyoke Range does that fact dictate the area's political leanings.)
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2020, 01:45:05 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 01:59:51 PM by Torie »

Well, let's see. Columbia County is where my aged butt is sitting at the moment as I pound the keyboard. Yes, the county is trending Dem as the cosmopolitan white gentry continues to move in, now at a faster pace due to covid, and now also more often than heretofore as their principal residence, rather than a second home. But what turbocharged it all this year is that the local Dems mailed an absentee ballot application to every registered Democrat in the county. So I got my application, filled it out, got a ballot in the mail, filled that out straight Dem like a mindless robot, and mailed that back in, and then made sure that it had been logged in via an online utility. Those absentee ballots were maybe 90% Dem, and the turnout % in the County ratcheted up in rather spectacular fashion, and it was almost all more Democrats voting. I am not sure many other NY counties did what the Columbia County Dems did by doing a mass mailing to all its registrants, so I suspect that it the biggest factor in and of itself as to the magnitude of the Dem trend this year as compared to its neighboring counties.

Oh, the Dems have been pushing second homeowners hard from NYC to vote from their vacation home, with considerable success, since before I moved in 6.5 years ago. The one big impediment is for those who have a rent controlled apartment in the city, since where you are registered to vote is a factor in whether you are entitled to rent control. So I don't think the trend is due to that factor because it is not a new factor.
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vileplume
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« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2020, 09:05:30 AM »

Doesn't Rockland County have a large Orthodox Jewish community?  I am thinking Trump's stance on Israel be it moving embassy to Jerusalem and deals with a number of Arab countries to recognize Israel would help him there.  But looking at precinct data in 2016 he might also already be maxed out in this community.

I think it's mostly because they hate the anti-coronavirus restrictions. Although you are right that they were already a solidly Republican group, so I'm not sure how much room Trump has to grow.

As for the subject of this thread, a lot of the easternmost parts of Upstate New York are culturally extensions of Western Massachusetts in the same way that Western Massachusetts is culturally an extension of Vermont. (The first Columbia County-based historical figure who comes to mind, for instance, is Edna St. Vincent Millay.) In good Democratic years, they vote like it.

Do you know why the Western Massachusetts's liberal culture doesn't really seem to affect Hampden County where rural areas vote more 'normally' (i.e. Republican)? Obviously Hampden is a safe Democratic area but that's because of the cities such as Springfield and Holyoke. I've never really understood why Democratic strength with rural/small town voters suddenly disappears at the county boundary.

I couldn't tell you the exact historical or sociological causality even though I've lived here for most of my life, but it's a widely-noted phenomenon with its own name. (The Wikipedia article suggests potential causes, but I don't buy any of them; for example, both sides of the Tofu Curtain are economically dominated these days by higher education and "research", but only to the north of the Holyoke Range does that fact dictate the area's political leanings.)

Thanks for this. I must be honest I'd never heard of the tofu curtain before! It just looks very odd that Worthington is way more Dem than Chester despite being towns of a comparable size and a similar distance from Northampton/Amherst, same for Sandisfield being way more Dem than Tolland. Maybe it's a case of political self sorting? Maybe Western Massachusetts people who lean right choose to self-pack (perhaps unconsciously so) into the Hampden county towns to escape the 'insufferable' (in their eyes) liberal culture of the rest of the region?
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2020, 11:07:50 PM »

it's not just any of the gentrification stuff, Biden improved in the heart of upstate NY blue collar white working class places too, like Niagara county
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