Time for some updates:
2021
Virginia: Lean R if Fairfax is the D nominee, Safe D with anyone else.
New Jersey: Safe D
2022
Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Tossup with Dunleavy, Likely R with any other Republican
Arizona: Likely R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Lean D if Newsom is the incumbent, Safe D in all other secnarios. In a D v D race featuring Newsom, the race would safe for the person challenging Newsom.
Coiorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Tilt R
Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D with any other Republican not named Marjorie Taylor Greene, Likely D if Taylor Greene is the Republican nominee.
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R if a moderate Republican faces Kelly, Lean R if someone from the Conservative wing faces Kelly, Tilt D if Kobach wins the Republican nomination again.
Maine: Lean D
Maryland: Safe D (Flip)
Massachusetts: Likely R if Baker is the Republican nominee, Safe D with any other Republican.
Michigan: Tilt R (Flip)
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tilt D
New Hampshire: Safe R if Sununnu is the Republican nominee, Tilt R with any other Republican
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Tilt R if Republicans run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Lean D if Republicans do not run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D in any scenario where Cuomo is not the Democratic nominee.
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Tilt R (Flip)
Rhode Island: Likely D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R if Beto O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee, Tilt R if a Castro brother is the Democratic nominee, Lean R with any other Democrat.
Vermont: Safe R if Phil Scott is the Republican nominee, Safe D if any other Republican is the nominee.
Wisconsin: Tilt R (Flip)
Wyoming: Safe R
I agree with everything but FL, that’s easily a likely R
