Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings

[Xing]

It's way too early, and we don't know who many of the candidates will be, but why not?

Here are mine:

In the case of MA and VT, the rating really depends on whether or not Baker and Scott run for another term (Safe R if they do, probably Likely D if Baker doesn't, Lean D if Scott doesn't.) Hogan can't run for a third term, and I'm guessing Sununu will run for Senate. I'm expecting Abrams to run in GA. If she doesn't, it probably moves to Lean R.

Maybe I'm overestimating the number of competitive races, and being a bit generous to Democrats in places like KS, but I do think that since local issues are more important in these races than Senate races, the COVID response some Governors took will either help them, or hurt them quite significantly.

[Frenchrepublican]

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Iowa - Likely D

[NewYorkExpress]

2021

Virginia: Likely D

New Jersey: Likely D


2022

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Lean R

Arizona: Tilt R

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Safe D

Colorado: Lean D

Connecticut: Lean D

Florida: Lean R

Georgia: Tilt R

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Illinois: Safe D

Iowa: Lean R

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

Maine: Tilt D

Maryland: Likely D (flip)

Massachusetts: Lean R if Baker runs, Safe D if any other Republican is the nominee.

Michigan: Tilt R (flip)

Minnesota: Lean D

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Lean D

New Hampshire: Safe R if Sunnunu runs, Likely R with any other GOP nominee.

New Mexico: Lean D

New York: Safe D

Ohio: Likely R

Oregon: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Tilt R (flip)

Rhode Island: Safe D

South Carolina: Likely R

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Likely R

Vermont: Lean R if Scott runs, Safe D with any other Republican.

Wisconsin: Tilt R (flip)

Wyoming: Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Hope For A New Era]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

The one that says Kris Kobach won't be the Republican nominee again. If this were a Trump midterm, I'd probably have Kansas as Tilt or Lean D.

[Hope For A New Era]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

The one that says Kris Kobach won't be the Republican nominee again. If this were a Trump midterm, I'd probably have Kansas as Tilt or Lean D.

Don't underestimate Kelly. I don't know why she does so well, but I'm not going to mess with success. She outperformed her polls and has been consistently popular since taking office.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

New York Express is another Milinenniel Moderate who projects the worst for the D if Fetterman runs or Shapiro they will be the next Gov of PA and WI isn't lean R it's Tilt D

D's aren't losing 278 EC map even Gubernatorial wise, in a Biden Prez

[NewYorkExpress]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

New York Express is another Milinenniel Moderate who projects the worst for the D if Fetterman runs or Shapiro they will be the next Gov of PA and WI isn't lean R it's Tilt D

D's aren't losing 278 EC map even Gubernatorial wise, in a Biden Prez

It's a Midterm when a Democrat is President, and turnout during the last Democratic Presidency (Obama) went down dramatically for Democrats.

Democrats have a clear path to victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan (depending on whether Abrams runs, they might even end up as a favorite in Georgia), and Baker and Scott easily could retire, which would lead to easy flips in New Hampshire and Vermont.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

New York Express is another Milinenniel Moderate who projects the worst for the D if Fetterman runs or Shapiro they will be the next Gov of PA and WI isn't lean R it's Tilt D

D's aren't losing 278 EC map even Gubernatorial wise, in a Biden Prez

It's a Midterm when a Democrat is President, and turnout during the last Democratic Presidency (Obama) went down dramatically for Democrats.

Democrats have a clear path to victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan (depending on whether Abrams runs, they might even end up as a favorite in Georgia), and Baker and Scott easily could retire, which would lead to easy flips in New Hampshire and Vermont.

All the Ds have to do is remind voters like Biden did, that they want to cut taxes for the rich where income inequality is exacerbated by the Covid crisis

2008  Great Recession was nothing like Covid crisis where the billionaires like oil men like Trump are the only ones left that has the wealth, that's why we had Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader McConnell

2022 can buck the midterm collapse of the D party

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Well lads, we found the correct map.

[Real Texan Politics]

Bumpity bump bump, bumpity bump bump.



My current ratings with the yellow libertarian color symbolizing pure tossups. Remember that the darker the shade, the better my confidence. NH is a tossup because I didn't see any potential strong democrat candidates, plus I think it's obvious Chris Sununu is gonna run for senate. Maybe that helps republicans in the state?

Also Connecticut is lean because the last several races have always been pretty close despite the democrat winning.

[GALeftist]

Mine (tossups are for losers):



Explanations for hottish takes:

AK: Had trouble rating this one, Dunleavy seems controversial so I could see this being moved to lean or even potentially more down the road
AZ: Narrow advantage Democrats for now given the state of the AZGOP, but that could change very quickly, basically a pure tossup.
CO: I see no reason to believe that this will be competitive.
CT: Lean sounds about right, seems like people like Lamont's COVID handling
FL: Maybe winnable in a perfect storm but frankly this borders on safe.
GA: Lean-level advantage for Democrats given the state's trend plus lol Kemp.
IL: Likely out of an abundance of caution, will probably move to safe.
IA: Likely out of an abundance of caution, will probably move to safe.
KS: Probably Lean-ish R, it is Kansas after all.
ME: Mills seems liked and she'll probably end up thrashing LePage. Will probably move to Likely
MD: Likely out of an abundance of caution, frankly, this should be a layup for Democrats.
MA: Safe R if Baker runs for reelection, Likely D if not.
MI: Whitmer is controversial, sure, but it seems like she's doing a pretty OK job so far, so Lean D for now.
MN: Frankly this is generous to the MNGOP, they'll probably nominate Lindell or something and get wrecked.
NV: Again, Sisolak seems well liked, so Lean D for now.
NH: Obviously Safe R if Sununu runs again, but I think he'll go for Senate. Without him, Tilt D for now, but I could be persuaded to put this at Tilt R.
NJ: Lean seems about right, might even move to Likely soonish.
NM: Lean seems right here, I could see an R putting up a good fight and maybe even winning on a good night. Could also move the other direction, though.
OH: Without Jordan this is Safe R
OR: Same as NM pretty much
PA: Narrow advantage for Democrats for now, Shapiro will be a good candidate but I could see this moving quickly towards Rs.
RI: Again, abundance of caution
TX: Same as above, even more so than Rhode Island, will probably move to Safe
VT: Safe R if the god-emperor runs again, Lean/Likely D if not.
VA: Same as MN pretty much
WI: People sleep on my boy, I feel like he's been a pretty good governor so I see no reason to say that he isn't favored this far out

[Galeel]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

The one that says Kris Kobach won't be the Republican nominee again. If this were a Trump midterm, I'd probably have Kansas as Tilt or Lean D.

Lean R is reasonable, but Safe R is ridiculous against a reasonably popular incumbent governor 2 years out.

[PAK Man]

Here are my picks:

2021:
New Jersey - Likely D
Virginia - Leans D (closer to Likely D than Tossup)

2022:
Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Leans R without Dunleavy/Tossup with Dunleavy
Arizona - Tossup
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Leans D (Lamont had a weak 2018 performance, plus CT doesn't mind electing Republican governors)
Florida - Leans R (I'm still bullish on Democrats' chances here, as foolish as that may be)
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Likely D (Republicans will try to blame him for the COVID-related business closures, but I don't see that gaining traction outside of downstate)
Iowa - Leans R (she's pushing a VERY unpopular voucher program through the legislature - even my Trump-supporting Republican friends think this is a terrible idea - and she's had one of the worst COVID responses of any governor in the nation. Rob Sand is rumored to be considering a run, and I think he's the one Democrat that can make this competitive)
Kansas - Tossup/Leans D with Kobach
Maine - Likely D
Maryland - Likely D (No GOP bench to speak of)
Massachusetts - Safe R with Baker/Leans D without Baker
Michigan - Leans D
Minnesota - Likely D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Leans D
New Hampshire - Safe R with Sununu/Tossup without Sununu
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Likely R with DeWine/Leans R with any other Republican
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Tossup
Rhode Island - Leans D
South Carolina - Safe R/Likely R if Cunningham goes for it
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Likely R
Vermont - Safe R with Scott/Likely D without Scott
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R

[Lechasseur]

No Tossups used

2021:
New Jersey: Likely D
Virginia: Safe D

2022:
Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Lean R
Arizona: Tilt D
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Likely R
Georgia: Tilt D
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Likely D
Iowa: Likely R
Kansas: Tilt R
Maine: Likely D
Maryland: Likely D
Massachussetts: Likely R with Baker/Likely D without Baker
Michigan: Tilt D
Minnesota: Likely D
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean D
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu/Tilt R without Sununu
New Mexico: Safe D
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Safe R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Tilt D
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Likely R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Vermont: Safe R with Scott/Likely D without Scott
Wisconsin: Tilt R
Wyoming: Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't Tilt R until we see polls

[😥]

2021:
New Jersey: Likely D
Virginia: Safe D

2022:
Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Tossup/Tilt D
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Safe D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Likely R
Georgia: Tossup/Tilt D
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Likely D
Iowa: Safe R
Kansas: Tossup/Tilt R
Maine: Likely D
Maryland: Safe D
Massachussetts: Safe R with Baker/Safe D without Baker
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Safe D
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean D
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu/Lean D without Sununu
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Safe R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Vermont: Safe R with Scott/Safe D without Scott
Wisconsin: Tossup/Tilt D
Wyoming: Safe R

[MATTROSE94]

2021:
New Jersey: Jack Ciattarelli (Republican gain)
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe (Democratic hold)

2022:
Alabama: Kay Ivey (Republican hold)
Alaska: Mike Dunleavy (Republican hold)
Arizona: Katie Hobbs (Democratic gain)
Arkansas: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican hold)
California: Gavin Newsome (Democratic hold)
Colorado: Jared Polis (Democratic hold)
Connecticut: Bob Stefanowski (Republican gain)
Florida: Ron DeSantis (Republican hold)
Georgia: Stacy Abrams (Democratic gain)
Hawaii: David Ige (Democratic hold)
Idaho: Brad Little (Republican hold)
Illinois: Jim Durkin (Republican gain)
Iowa: Kim Reynolds (Republican hold)
Kansas: Kris Kobach (Republican gain)
Maine: Bruce Poliquin (Republican gain)
Maryland: Boyd Rutherford (Republican hold)
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker (Republican hold)
Michigan: Lee Chatfield (Republican gain)
Minnesota: Mike Lindell (Republican gain)
Nebraska: Mike Foley (Republican hold)
Nevada: Adam Laxalt (Republican gain)
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (Republican hold)
New Mexico: John Sanchez (Republican gain)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (Democratic hold)
Ohio: Mike DeWine (Republican hold)
Oklahoma: Kevin Stitt (Republican hold)
Oregon: Bud Pierce (Republican gain)
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (Democratic hold)
Rhode Island: Allan Fung (Republican gain)
South Carolina: Henry McMaster (Republican hold)
South Dakota: Kristi Noem (Republican hold)
Tennessee: Bill Lee (Republican hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (Republican hold)
Vermont: Molly Gray (Democratic gain)
Wisconsin: Sean Duffy (Republican gain)
Wyoming: Mark Gordon (Republican hold)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pritzker is not losing he has a 50 percent approval rating. He is not Pat Quinn

[President Johnson]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Chips]

2021 is all I will do for now.

NJ: Likely D
VA: Likely D

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alabama: Safe R.
Alaska: Lean R.
Arizona: Tilt R.
Arkansas: Safe R.
California: Safe D.
Colorado: Likely D.
Connecticut: Lean D.
Florida: Safe R.
Georgia: Tossup.
Hawaii: Safe D.
Idaho: Safe R.
Illinois: Likely D.
Iowa: Safe R.
Kansas: Lean R.
Maine: Lean D.
Maryland: Likely D.
Massachusetts: Safe R.
Michigan: Tilt D.
Minnesota: Lean D.
Nebraska: Safe R.
Nevada: Tilt D.
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu, Tossup otherwise.
New Jersey: Likely D.
New Mexico: Lean D.
New York: Safe D.
Ohio: Safe R.
Oklahoma: Safe R.
Oregon: Lean D.
Pennsylvania: Tossup.
Rhode Island: Likely D.
South Carolina: Safe R.
South Dakota: Safe R.
Tennessee: Safe R.
Texas: Safe R.
Vermont: Safe R.
Virginia: Likely D.
Wisconsin: Lean R.
Wyoming: Safe R.