Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
- Purely due to RCV
Arizona: Lean R with Ducey, Tilt R otherwise
- I doubt he'll actually get primaried for his feud with Trump in 2020, but if he is he'll be replaced by some Kelli Ward wing loon.
Arkansas: Safe R, Likely R if Hendren runs 3rd party
- This probably goes back to Safe R even if Hendren does run, but I'd like to see some polls on how the vote would split.
California: Safe D
Colorado: Safe D
Connecticut: Likely D
- He's never been that popular, but I doubt he'll be at risk. Maybe if the Rs can find a good candidate.
Florida: Likely R
Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D otherwise
- Same deal as Arizona.
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Safe R
Kansas: Lean R
- Uncertain rating.
Maine: Lean D
Maryland: Likely D
Massachusetts: Safe R if Baker runs, Safe D otherwise
Michigan: Tilt D
Minnesota: Lean D, Likely D with Lindell
- Pillow man bad
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tilt D
- I could easily see this one tilting towards the Rs as we get closer.
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu, Lean D otherwise
- NH is a fundamentally Dem leaning state with a popular Rep governor.
New Jersey: Safe D
- It isn't 2009
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Likely D
- Probably moves back to Safe D no matter what happens, but current scandal has the potential to blow up badly.
Ohio: Safe R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Tilt D
- Dems have a decent bench here, but it is still a Biden Midterm
Rhode Island: Likely D
- This race moved towards Dems after Raymond left
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Lean R
- My most uncertain rating. Totally dependent on if Sutton runs again. Fact that it's a Biden midterm doesn't really matter given this race was completely uncoupled from national events anyway.
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Vermont: Safe R with Scott, Safe D otherwise
Virginia: Likely D
Wisconsin: Tilt R
Wyoming: Safe R
New York:
Likely D ->
Lean D if Cuomo is the nominee. Otherwise,
Likely D ->
Safe D.
- Cuomo is looking pretty terrible at the moment. 38/48 approval, 64% don't want a fourth term. This has the dual effect of decreasing his chances in both the primary and general elections. It goes without saying that Any other D vs. any R is safe D.
