Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

New York Express is another Milinenniel Moderate who projects the worst for the D if Fetterman runs or Shapiro they will be the next Gov of PA and WI isn't lean R it's Tilt D

D's aren't losing 278 EC map even Gubernatorial wise, in a Biden Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

New York Express is another Milinenniel Moderate who projects the worst for the D if Fetterman runs or Shapiro they will be the next Gov of PA and WI isn't lean R it's Tilt D

D's aren't losing 278 EC map even Gubernatorial wise, in a Biden Prez

It's a Midterm when a Democrat is President, and turnout during the last Democratic Presidency (Obama) went down dramatically for Democrats.

Democrats have a clear path to victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan (depending on whether Abrams runs, they might even end up as a favorite in Georgia), and Baker and Scott easily could retire, which would lead to easy flips in New Hampshire and Vermont.

All the Ds have to do is remind voters like Biden did, that they want to cut taxes for the rich where income inequality is exacerbated by the Covid crisis

2008  Great Recession was nothing like Covid crisis where the billionaires like oil men like Trump are the only ones left that has the wealth, that's why we had Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader McConnell

2022 can buck the midterm collapse of the D party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't Tilt R until we see polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pritzker is not losing he has a 50 percent approval rating. He is not Pat Quinn

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

Why do you have VA as only likely D???

MT Treasurer also thinks that Ron Johnson isn't DOA and Tony Evers is and the irony is that both of them are old, and if Johnson can win a second term so can Tony Evers.

Just like the 2024 board lights up that Biden whom will be 82 is too old to be Prez but Trump 78 can be Prez, the R irony

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov races








Sen races dream maps split voting power


Assuming Tim Ryan runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and PA aren't gonna vote to the right of the nation but AZ and KS will

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and PA aren't gonna vote to the right of the nation but AZ and KS will

Gov races are a different story, still. Kelly is popular in KS while PA is an open seat. It's possible Kelly wins reelection while a GOPers takes the Governor's Mansion in Harrisburg.

I doubt it Wolf and the D's have a 50 percent approval ratings and we won PA by 17 pts in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only person that can win is Joe Kennedy and he isn't running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ratings aren't that important now, but Kelly can win and Evers isn't DOA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am rooting for Charlie Crist, DeSantis isn't strong with AA that's why he almost lost to Gillian and Crist has embraced Cuban community

Crist in 21 mnths can beat DeSantis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Underestimating Charlie Crist is for Gov would be beneficial to him, he almost beat Rick Scott in 2014, in an R plus 5 year..
Users think that the 306 map is the end all be all and OH, NC and FL will never vote D again, LoL

It's called as Sunbelt South being wave insurance

D's would have won 334  map which included FL, had the election taken place after Floyd Protest, he recovered only to lose it all again with WC females and Minorities after Insurrectionists

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol John James isn't beating Whitmer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol John James isn't beating Whitmer

Duly noted. *re-ignored*

Ignite you and MI is tilt D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Agreeing with New York Express, like AGA and Pericles, they never predict bold Predictions for D's, my predictions are bold but as a Dem you have to make maps based on in case D's win, not based on whom you think is gonna win.

Biden is in office and he is the same one that ushered in Obama coalition in 2008/2012 that won us IA, OH, FL, VA, NC, NV and CO .

What if D's do overperform and win

I am waiting for recruits in OH Gov with Cranley and IA Gov Cne Axne or Faunekarr to run against Reynolds or DeWine

We can't let DeWine win by 20 or we won't win Senate race in Ohio against a very bad Josh Mandel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's win GA they would win FL, KS or AZ

I am optimistic about OH Cranley is only 46 yrs old and can win and he is the only one daring enough to take on DeWine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's win GA they would win FL, KS or AZ

I am optimistic about OH Cranley is only 46 yrs old and can win and he is the only one daring enough to take on DeWine

Its a bold prediction If Crist gets in Trump only won the state by 300/K, the same as Johnson did.

The Election is next yr and my prediction is based on a robust Recovery not based on this Recession, isn't f course D's will replicate the 291 EC map in a neutral yr
If 2020 showed anything, then that GA is not FL. It's very unlikely DeSantis gets voted out next year, even though he would deserve a loss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We get the same spill all the time that WI is R, no it's not, the only person that lost WI was Hillary, it voted for Obama in 2008/12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Common Whitmer losing to John James no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is gonna win MI is a Cook D 3 state, WI is plus 1 and PA is D 2 Whitmer isn't losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*snip*

(literally sane, normal, pays attention to trends, knows his state well)

I agree with most of this, but I’m curious why you (and others) think OR is a better pick-up opportunity for the GOP than MN. I agree that MN is an uphill battle for the party, but everything working against the party in MN seems to be working against them in OR as well, if not even more so (metro areas and non-largest-metro/capital and non-capital urban counties moving to the left, rural population/R gains not sufficiently large to offset that, recreation and D transplants halting the R trend in some R areas, strong presence of college-educated and liberal whites, D trends among affluent voters, etc.). Is it the divergence in the COVID response and approval numbers of both governors? I get that Brown seems to be a little more unpopular than Walz (although I’m not sure I trust those polling numbers entirely), but I could at least see a short-term R winning coalition on the state level in MN which accelerates current R trends (Democrats still have room to fall in many red parts of the state + certainly in the Iron Range), relies on record turnout in rural/small-town MN, and recovers some lost ground in the suburbs/exurbs of MSP (where you could argue that Trump's exceptionally abysmal performance was something of an anomaly even if the long-term trend is clear). I don’t see a similar coalition in OR right now, honestly. Although gubernatorial elections can be a little less predictable than federal ones, I’d be extremely surprised if the Democrats' winning streak in OR (which is of course the longest in the country) ended in 2022. I’d be a little less surprised if they lost MN.

Whitmer, Evers and PA are going D Biden has a 50% approval rating in all three state, when are Rs gonna learn that since 2016/ they haven't cracked the Blue wall