Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings

[NewYorkExpress]

2021

Virginia: Likely D

New Jersey: Likely D


2022

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Lean R

Arizona: Tilt R

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Safe D

Colorado: Lean D

Connecticut: Lean D

Florida: Lean R

Georgia: Tilt R

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Illinois: Safe D

Iowa: Lean R

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

Maine: Tilt D

Maryland: Likely D (flip)

Massachusetts: Lean R if Baker runs, Safe D if any other Republican is the nominee.

Michigan: Tilt R (flip)

Minnesota: Lean D

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Lean D

New Hampshire: Safe R if Sunnunu runs, Likely R with any other GOP nominee.

New Mexico: Lean D

New York: Safe D

Ohio: Likely R

Oregon: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Tilt R (flip)

Rhode Island: Safe D

South Carolina: Likely R

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Likely R

Vermont: Lean R if Scott runs, Safe D with any other Republican.

Wisconsin: Tilt R (flip)

Wyoming: Safe R

[NewYorkExpress]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

The one that says Kris Kobach won't be the Republican nominee again. If this were a Trump midterm, I'd probably have Kansas as Tilt or Lean D.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kansas: Safe R (flip)

What planet are you on?

Tossup.

New York Express is another Milinenniel Moderate who projects the worst for the D if Fetterman runs or Shapiro they will be the next Gov of PA and WI isn't lean R it's Tilt D

D's aren't losing 278 EC map even Gubernatorial wise, in a Biden Prez

It's a Midterm when a Democrat is President, and turnout during the last Democratic Presidency (Obama) went down dramatically for Democrats.

Democrats have a clear path to victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan (depending on whether Abrams runs, they might even end up as a favorite in Georgia), and Baker and Scott easily could retire, which would lead to easy flips in New Hampshire and Vermont.

[NewYorkExpress]

Time for some updates:

2021

Virginia: Lean R if Fairfax is the D nominee, Safe D with anyone else.

New Jersey: Safe D

2022

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Tossup with Dunleavy, Likely R with any other Republican

Arizona: Likely R

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Lean D if Newsom is the incumbent, Safe D in all other secnarios. In a D v D race featuring Newsom, the race would safe for the person challenging Newsom.

Coiorado: Likely D

Connecticut: Likely D

Florida: Tilt R

Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D with any other Republican not named Marjorie Taylor Greene, Likely D if Taylor Greene is the Republican nominee.

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Iowa: Lean R

Kansas: Safe R if a moderate Republican faces Kelly, Lean R if someone from the Conservative wing faces Kelly, Tilt D if Kobach wins the Republican nomination again.

Maine: Lean D

Maryland: Safe D (Flip)

Massachusetts: Likely R if Baker is the Republican nominee, Safe D with any other Republican.

Michigan: Tilt R (Flip)

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Tilt D

New Hampshire: Safe R if Sununnu is the Republican nominee, Tilt R with any other Republican

New Mexico: Lean D

New York: Tilt R if Republicans run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Lean D if Republicans do not run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D in any scenario where Cuomo is not the Democratic nominee.

Ohio: Likely R

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Tilt R (Flip)

Rhode Island: Likely D

South Carolina: Safe R

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Likely R if Beto O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee, Tilt R if a Castro brother is the Democratic nominee, Lean R with any other Democrat.

Vermont: Safe R if Phil Scott is the Republican nominee, Safe D if any other Republican is the nominee.

Wisconsin: Tilt R (Flip)

Wyoming: Safe R

[NewYorkExpress]

Time to do this again:

Virginia: Lean R with Fairfax, Safe D with any other Democrat
New Jersey: Safe D

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Lean R with Dunleavy, Safe R with any other Republican
Arkansas: Safe R
Arizona: Tilt R
California: Lean D with Newsom, Safe D in all other scenarios
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Tilt R
Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D with any other Republican
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R with any Republican that isn't Kris Kobach. Lean D with Kobach as the Republican nominee.
Maine: Tilt D
Maryland: Likely D (Flip)
Massachusetts: Tilt D with Baker, Safe D with any other Republican (flip)
Michigan; Tilt R (flip)
Minnesota: Lean D
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean D
New Hampshire: Lean R with Sununu, Lean D with another Republican
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Safe R with Cuomo, Safe D with any other Democrat
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tilt R (Flip)
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Lean R
Vermont: Lean R with Scott, Safe D with any other Republican
Wisconsin: Tilt R (flip)
Wyoming: Safe R