Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is gonna win MI is a Cook D 3 state, WI is plus 1 and PA is D 2 Whitmer isn't losing

[NYDem]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
- Purely due to RCV
Arizona: Lean R with Ducey, Tilt R otherwise
- I doubt he'll actually get primaried for his feud with Trump in 2020, but if he is he'll be replaced by some Kelli Ward wing loon.
Arkansas: Safe R, Likely R if Hendren runs 3rd party
- This probably goes back to Safe R even if Hendren does run, but I'd like to see some polls on how the vote would split.
California: Safe D
Colorado: Safe D
Connecticut: Likely D
- He's never been that popular, but I doubt he'll be at risk. Maybe if the Rs can find a good candidate.
Florida: Likely R
Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D otherwise
- Same deal as Arizona.
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Safe R
Kansas: Lean R
- Uncertain rating.
Maine: Lean D
Maryland: Likely D
Massachusetts: Safe R if Baker runs, Safe D otherwise
Michigan: Tilt D
Minnesota: Lean D, Likely D with Lindell
- Pillow man bad
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tilt D
- I could easily see this one tilting towards the Rs as we get closer.
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu, Lean D otherwise
- NH is a fundamentally Dem leaning state with a popular Rep governor.
New Jersey: Safe D
- It isn't 2009
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Likely D
- Probably moves back to Safe D no matter what happens, but current scandal has the potential to blow up badly.
Ohio: Safe R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Tilt D
- Dems have a decent bench here, but it is still a Biden Midterm
Rhode Island: Likely D
- This race moved towards Dems after Raymond left
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Lean R
- My most uncertain rating. Totally dependent on if Sutton runs again. Fact that it's a Biden midterm doesn't really matter given this race was completely uncoupled from national events anyway.
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Vermont: Safe R with Scott, Safe D otherwise
Virginia: Likely D
Wisconsin: Tilt R
Wyoming: Safe R

New York: Likely D -> Lean D if Cuomo is the nominee. Otherwise, Likely D -> Safe D.
- Cuomo is looking pretty terrible at the moment. 38/48 approval, 64% don't want a fourth term. This has the dual effect of decreasing his chances in both the primary and general elections. It goes without saying that Any other D vs. any R is safe D.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

(literally sane, normal, pays attention to trends, knows his state well)

I agree with most of this, but I’m curious why you (and others) think OR is a better pick-up opportunity for the GOP than MN. I agree that MN is an uphill battle for the party, but everything working against the party in MN seems to be working against them in OR as well, if not even more so (metro areas and non-largest-metro/capital and non-capital urban counties moving to the left, rural population/R gains not sufficiently large to offset that, recreation and D transplants halting the R trend in some R areas, strong presence of college-educated and liberal whites, D trends among affluent voters, etc.). Is it the divergence in the COVID response and approval numbers of both governors? I get that Brown seems to be a little more unpopular than Walz (although I’m not sure I trust those polling numbers entirely), but I could at least see a short-term R winning coalition on the state level in MN which accelerates current R trends (Democrats still have room to fall in many red parts of the state + certainly in the Iron Range), relies on record turnout in rural/small-town MN, and recovers some lost ground in the suburbs/exurbs of MSP (where you could argue that Trump's exceptionally abysmal performance was something of an anomaly even if the long-term trend is clear). I don’t see a similar coalition in OR right now, honestly. Although gubernatorial elections can be a little less predictable than federal ones, I’d be extremely surprised if the Democrats' winning streak in OR (which is of course the longest in the country) ended in 2022. I’d be a little less surprised if they lost MN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*snip*

(literally sane, normal, pays attention to trends, knows his state well)

I agree with most of this, but I’m curious why you (and others) think OR is a better pick-up opportunity for the GOP than MN. I agree that MN is an uphill battle for the party, but everything working against the party in MN seems to be working against them in OR as well, if not even more so (metro areas and non-largest-metro/capital and non-capital urban counties moving to the left, rural population/R gains not sufficiently large to offset that, recreation and D transplants halting the R trend in some R areas, strong presence of college-educated and liberal whites, D trends among affluent voters, etc.). Is it the divergence in the COVID response and approval numbers of both governors? I get that Brown seems to be a little more unpopular than Walz (although I’m not sure I trust those polling numbers entirely), but I could at least see a short-term R winning coalition on the state level in MN which accelerates current R trends (Democrats still have room to fall in many red parts of the state + certainly in the Iron Range), relies on record turnout in rural/small-town MN, and recovers some lost ground in the suburbs/exurbs of MSP (where you could argue that Trump's exceptionally abysmal performance was something of an anomaly even if the long-term trend is clear). I don’t see a similar coalition in OR right now, honestly. Although gubernatorial elections can be a little less predictable than federal ones, I’d be extremely surprised if the Democrats' winning streak in OR (which is of course the longest in the country) ended in 2022. I’d be a little less surprised if they lost MN.

Whitmer, Evers and PA are going D Biden has a 50% approval rating in all three state, when are Rs gonna learn that since 2016/ they haven't cracked the Blue wall

[VAR]

*snip*

(literally sane, normal, pays attention to trends, knows his state well)

I agree with most of this, but I’m curious why you (and others) think OR is a better pick-up opportunity for the GOP than MN. I agree that MN is an uphill battle for the party, but everything working against the party in MN seems to be working against them in OR as well, if not even more so (metro areas and non-largest-metro/capital and non-capital urban counties moving to the left, rural population/R gains not sufficiently large to offset that, recreation and D transplants halting the R trend in some R areas, strong presence of college-educated and liberal whites, D trends among affluent voters, etc.). Is it the divergence in the COVID response and approval numbers of both governors? I get that Brown seems to be a little more unpopular than Walz (although I’m not sure I trust those polling numbers entirely), but I could at least see a short-term R winning coalition on the state level in MN which accelerates current R trends (Democrats still have room to fall in many red parts of the state + certainly in the Iron Range), relies on record turnout in rural/small-town MN, and recovers some lost ground in the suburbs/exurbs of MSP (where you could argue that Trump's exceptionally abysmal performance was something of an anomaly even if the long-term trend is clear). I don’t see a similar coalition in OR right now, honestly. Although gubernatorial elections can be a little less predictable than federal ones, I’d be extremely surprised if the Democrats' winning streak in OR (which is of course the longest in the country) ended in 2022. I’d be a little less surprised if they lost MN.

I think this is a reasonable argument but would like to note that Trump’s performance in the Portland metro area was also unnaturally bad for a Republican - Merkley and Schrader, both of whom are considered strong incumbents, underperformed Biden in the suburban portions of the state, which is similar to what we saw in MN. As for Brown’s approval rating, she was underwater by 9% in the same poll that showed Biden up by 12 points, so yeah, she is still unpopular. Walz doesn’t seem to be unpopular though.