Are Republicans less nervous about Texas because of Florida?

[Tekken_Guy]

Do you think Republicans are getting less nervous about losing Texas than they were in the past because they'll be able to replace it with Florida?

[kwabbit]

It's hard to imagine a Republican winning the Presidency without Texas, even with Florida, so no, losing Texas would be disastrous.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

We still need both states, anyone not nervous is a fool.

[Roronoa D. Law]

No, because Clinton 2016 + TX puts Democrats at 270. They will need one of NV/MN/ME to win. They will also need to protect GA/AZ/NC.

[bagelman]

Republicans are probably thinking that TX will remain tilted towards them due to the hispanic swing, so they're not particularly worried. For those who at least accept that Trump lost at all, clearly with the GOP consistently overpreforming all polls the GOP can come roaring back after Boring Biden.

[Bootes Void]

a republican winning the presidency without Florida would be very difficult but near impossible without Texas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The next two Election cycles are gonna benefit D's in FL, due to DeSantis only winning by .05 and Rick Scott winning by the same amount. 

Castros aren't running for Senate or Gov they have a last name defect, that's why they only ran for Prez.  The days are over for Valdez and HEGAR candidates

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The next two Election cycles are gonna benefit D's in FL, due to DeSantis only winning by .05 and Rick Scott winning by the same amount. 

Castros aren't running for Senate or Gov they have a last name defect, that's why they only ran for Prez.  The days are over for Valdez and HEGAR candidates

So does anyone ever understand his takes? There's no like persisting logic from one to another right?

[MATTROSE94]

Texas probably doesn't flip to the Democrats until 2032 (though the Democrats have a good chance of winning Senate seats there in 2026 and 2030 under both of President Ron DeSantis' midterm elections), so for not probably not.

[MargieCat]

Florida + Wisconsin can help the republicans offset a Texas loss.

Of course if Texas goes blue, then North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona will all have gone democrat as well.

Eventually, I think the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and perhaps Minnesota might become red states. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire midwest (sans Illinois) goes red.

But they would have to win a major sunbelt state besides Florida to stay competitive.

[pppolitics]

Florida + Wisconsin can help the republicans offset a Texas loss.

Of course if Texas goes blue, then North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona will all have gone democrat as well.

Eventually, I think the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and perhaps Minnesota might become red states. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire midwest (sans Illinois) goes red.

But they would have to win a major sunbelt state besides Florida to stay competitive.

Minnesota is different from a lot of other rust belt states in that it has a lot of college educated voters.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Texas is definitely a must-win for any GOP nominee, but I'm less worried about it now than before the election.  Without the big RGV swing towards Trump, he wins it by like 2 rather than the 6 points he actually won it by.


The real question is whether the RGV swing is permanent (educational realignment) or whether it largely reverts back.  Or Trump had a unique appeal to these voters.

[It’s so Joever]

The next two Election cycles are gonna benefit D's in FL, due to DeSantis only winning by .05 and Rick Scott winning by the same amount. 

Castros aren't running for Senate or Gov they have a last name defect, that's why they only ran for Prez.  The days are over for Valdez and HEGAR candidates

So does anyone ever understand his takes? There's no like persisting logic from one to another right?

He is an established Atlas meme and you must be really careful to never slander the great Olakawandi. Leader of the SECULAR AUTHORITARIAN SUNBELT STACK!

(Seriously read the thread on best of OC in the forum community, you won’t regret it)

[It’s so Joever]

Texas is definitely a must-win for any GOP nominee, but I'm less worried about it now than before the election.  Without the big RGV swing towards Trump, he wins it by like 2 rather than the 6 points he actually won it by.


The real question is whether the RGV swing is permanent (educational realignment) or whether it largely reverts back.  Or Trump had a unique appeal to these voters.

I am probably one of the few people who thinks it’s a long term trend.
It’s not just Trump, it appears that some of the Texas House districts had swings to the GOP in 2018 compared to 2016. Unless you buy that Hillary was the greatest candidate on Earth for the RGV.
Luckily the suburbs would probably outweigh the RGV swing anyways if current trends continue, but yeah I don’t see a bounce back and people calling it a one-time thing are usually partisan hacks who want to cope with the fact that they don’t have a monopoly on the Latino vote.

Plus with the education divide growing, why should anyone be shocked that a highly uneducated region is swinging R, even if it makes no seemingly logical sense?

Looks like these voters finally bought into the culture war stuff. Oh well, they can hurt themselves I guess like the West Virginians, lol.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd say they're less nervous about Texas because of Texas. Florida can be attributed to Cuban-specific issues. Texas Hispanics are harder to ignore.

If we assume NC Yankee's hypothesis plays out (and I think 2020 confirms this), we'll eventually see a Sun Belt Democrats vs Rust Belt GOP alignment at the presidential level. The problem for the GOP is that the Sun Belt is realigning much faster than the Rust Belt. It's one thing to trade AZ and GA for PA and WI, but losing Texas would put the GOP at quite the disadvantage.

While, I think in the very long run, the GOP will lose Texas, the Hispanic trend buys the GOP time to:

1) Continue efforts to bring along additional states to offset the loss of Texas.
2) Get some close results and hopefully scare the state GOP into contesting the state properly like Florida.

[Red Wall]

You should be somwhat nervous of the states that give the most EVs to your side being on single digit margins, while California and NY (the ones who give the most to dems) are easy calls.

However when Texas still votes 10 points more to your side vs the nation that means the situation is still favorable to your party and you can do better by addressing certain demos. For Texas Republicans it's suburbia and RGV. Gone are the days of 20 point wins but winning by 10-15 still possible. The Cornyn coalition still exists.

[Devils30]

I'd say they're less nervous about Texas because of Texas. Florida can be attributed to Cuban-specific issues. Texas Hispanics are harder to ignore.

If we assume NC Yankee's hypothesis plays out (and I think 2020 confirms this), we'll eventually see a Sun Belt Democrats vs Rust Belt GOP alignment at the presidential level. The problem for the GOP is that the Sun Belt is realigning much faster than the Rust Belt. It's one thing to trade AZ and GA for PA and WI, but losing Texas would put the GOP at quite the disadvantage.

While, I think in the very long run, the GOP will lose Texas, the Hispanic trend buys the GOP time to:

1) Continue efforts to bring along additional states to offset the loss of Texas.
2) Get some close results and hopefully scare the state GOP into contesting the state properly like Florida.

It's tempting to say this but back in 2000 we would have thought Florida would become a D leaning state because of demographics.

For WI, what if we get a blue Waukesha, Ozaukee? Obviously in the next decade it's unlikely they go blue outright but people shouldn't just assume recent suburban white trends reverse. What if rural WI WWC becomes a bit stubborn for the GOP like New England has been and only slowly moves right.

My point is we don't know the future and a populist like Hawley could totally flop here and places like suburban Detroit, Grand Rapids, Philly, Pitt and MI, WI, PA remain blue while Hispanic working class areas in NV, FL, TX move red. AZ would be very interesting in this scenario with counter trends and it might hurt GOP in NC (GA hard to see not being blue no matter what).