Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties)

[Mr. Morden]

These aren’t the right numbers.  The poll asks *all* respondents, whether they are Republicans or not, who would be their choice for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.  But including Democrats in the sample doesn’t make any sense, since Democrats are largely not going to vote in a GOP primary.  The sample as constructed has close to equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, which makes no sense if the goal is to poll a Republican primary.

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%

[Mr. Morden]

I'm curious if the wording of the poll used Trump's full name, or if there might be a 1% Ivanka and a 1% Don Jr. hidden in that "Trump" number.

It does use his full name.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump up by six among Republicans? Yeah, polling has become an embarrassing joke at this point.

As was pointed out earlier, this isn’t among Republicans. It’s among all voters. If you only include Republicans, Trump leads Pence by 23

Fair point. But I'd still expect a much wider lead.

I'm not sure why this result is so unbelievable.  Pence is also popular among Republican voters.

[Mr. Morden]

2012 all over again with Romney in 2nd place?

Again, the #s in the OP aren't right, because they're polling all voters, including Democrats.  The *real* numbers are the #s amongst Republicans only:

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%