Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties)

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/Political_Polls/status/1328758765248770049
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328759344549203968

[WD]

>Romney in 2nd place

[Bootes Void]

Lol Romney. Also surprised that Trump isnt dominating

[Crumpets]

I'm curious if the wording of the poll used Trump's full name, or if there might be a 1% Ivanka and a 1% Don Jr. hidden in that "Trump" number.

[ElectionsGuy]

Did they poll the Fairfax County, VA's of America? Romney and Kasich getting almost a third of the vote when they have basically said they hate what the Republican Party has become...

[Left Wing]

This poll would have us believe 16% of Trump’s supporters second choice is Romney or Kasich

[Alben Barkley]

Caution about polls notwithstanding, I don’t find it the HARDEST thing in the world to believe. Romney was banking on guiding the GOP back to something resembling sanity post-Trump, clearly, and it was only eight years ago he was the leader of the party. Trump won with a plurality, and although he definitely got the GOP base to fall lockstep behind him, a lot of that was softer support and polls consistently showed that even many people who said they approved of him would prefer someone else. His actual diehard base, those who are his biggest fans, has not actually grown THAT much since 2016, it seems.

In any case, if Romney does intend to run again, he should take this as an encouraging sign that there’s hope the GOP voters could be persuaded to move on. Keep in mind their last three presidential nominees (W, McCain, and Romney himself) have all been thrown under the bus and disavowed lately by much of the GOP. After they insisted to all of us Democrats we were anti-American for not supporting them. It’s a fickle party, to say the least. Don’t be too surprised when Trump is next on the chopping block.

Trump should certainly be concerned, too, if he can only keep a quarter of the party solidly in his camp even NOW, before his presidency is even over officially. If he can’t do better than that now, how the hell will he win the primary in four years?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Perhaps people who have not been listening to the likes of RinoTom enough, but there are still vast millions of Republicans living in suburbs from upper middle class backgrounds. This was Romney's core base in 2012 and in 2016 it was cracked with the immigration hawks among them backing Trump and the rest going for Kasich.

It should not come as a surprise that in an open primary for all intents and purposes that there is the potential for this vote to unify behind one candidate and for it to equal 25%-30%.

Furthermore among the more hard line conservative types here, who are heavily religious, there is still some appetite for Cruz. I talked with one yesterday, and even though he thinks Trump won this election and the courts will save him, said he would vote for Cruz if he ran against Trump in an open 2024 primary.

If I were to put this on a map, Romney would be Charlotte Metro, Cruz/Pence would be RDU area Socons and Trump would be the rural areas.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Caution about polls notwithstanding, I don’t find it the HARDEST thing in the world to believe. Romney was banking on guiding the GOP back to something resembling sanity post-Trump, clearly, and it was only eight years ago he was the leader of the party. Trump won with a plurality, and although he definitely got the GOP base to fall lockstep behind him, a lot of that was softer support and polls consistently showed that even many people who said they approved of him would prefer someone else. His actual diehard base, those who are his biggest fans, has not actually grown THAT much since 2016, it seems.

In any case, if Romney does intend to run again, he should take this as an encouraging sign that there’s hope the GOP voters could be persuaded to move on. Keep in mind their last three presidential nominees (W, McCain, and Romney himself) have all been thrown under the bus and disavowed lately by much of the GOP. After they insisted to all of us Democrats we were anti-American for not supporting them. It’s a fickle party, to say the least. Don’t be too surprised when Trump is next on the chopping block.

Trump should certainly be concerned, too, if he can only keep a quarter of the party solidly in his camp even NOW, before his presidency is even over officially. If he can’t do better than that now, how the hell will he win the primary in four years?

Trump's gambit is to maintain constant exposure and press, the problem is there is such a thing as over saturation and Trump could easily nuke himself just by being a constant reminder of how he was and what he would be like again. Trump fatigue basically and Republicans are not immune to this either.

[Mr. Morden]

These aren’t the right numbers.  The poll asks *all* respondents, whether they are Republicans or not, who would be their choice for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.  But including Democrats in the sample doesn’t make any sense, since Democrats are largely not going to vote in a GOP primary.  The sample as constructed has close to equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, which makes no sense if the goal is to poll a Republican primary.

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%

[Mr. Morden]

I'm curious if the wording of the poll used Trump's full name, or if there might be a 1% Ivanka and a 1% Don Jr. hidden in that "Trump" number.

It does use his full name.

[Left Wing]

These aren’t the right numbers.  The poll asks *all* respondents, whether they are Republicans or not, who would be their choice for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.  But including Democrats in the sample doesn’t make any sense, since Democrats are largely not going to vote in a GOP primary.  The sample as constructed has close to equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, which makes no sense if the goal is to poll a Republican primary.

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%

Ok that makes much more sense.

[Alben Barkley]

These aren’t the right numbers.  The poll asks *all* respondents, whether they are Republicans or not, who would be their choice for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.  But including Democrats in the sample doesn’t make any sense, since Democrats are largely not going to vote in a GOP primary.  The sample as constructed has close to equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, which makes no sense if the goal is to poll a Republican primary.

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%

Well that’s dumb and changes everything. Still, Trump only at a plurality rather than an absolute majority shows some vulnerability. Interesting Pence does just as well without him; he’s polling much stronger even against Trump than I expected.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Pence support will evaporate when Trump (or a more Trump-like alternative) hits the stage. Nobody cares about records and past support, it's all about who gets the juices flowing. For all of the backroom maneuvering he's done in the smoke-filled rooms (for the last decade!), Pence will be a poor man's alternative to Trump. His job was always to get on-the-fence voters to back Trump, but obviously that's a marginal effect relative to the juiced turnout that Trump can generate.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I want to say the safest bet is to ignore this new polling firm going forward, but watch us all get disappointed as they nail the 2024 primaries and general election.

[JG]

I want to say the safest bet is to ignore this new polling firm going forward, but watch us all get disappointed as they nail the 2024 primaries and general election.

Technically, it's not a new polling firm. It's been around since 1986 in Canada.

[Bootes Void]

This poll would have us believe 16% of Trump’s supporters second choice is Romney or Kasich

low information republicans?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I want to say the safest bet is to ignore this new polling firm going forward, but watch us all get disappointed as they nail the 2024 primaries and general election.

Technically, it's not a new polling firm. It's been around since 1986 in Canada.

Is it reliable?

[President Johnson]

Trump up by six among Republicans? Yeah, polling has become an embarrassing joke at this point.

[Left Wing]

Trump up by six among Republicans? Yeah, polling has become an embarrassing joke at this point.

As was pointed out earlier, this isn’t among Republicans. It’s among all voters. If you only include Republicans, Trump leads Pence by 23

[President Johnson]

Trump up by six among Republicans? Yeah, polling has become an embarrassing joke at this point.

As was pointed out earlier, this isn’t among Republicans. It’s among all voters. If you only include Republicans, Trump leads Pence by 23

Fair point. But I'd still expect a much wider lead.

[S019]

These aren’t the right numbers.  The poll asks *all* respondents, whether they are Republicans or not, who would be their choice for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.  But including Democrats in the sample doesn’t make any sense, since Democrats are largely not going to vote in a GOP primary.  The sample as constructed has close to equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, which makes no sense if the goal is to poll a Republican primary.

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%

Yeah this makes much more sense Democrats wanting Romney, Haley, or Kasich to be the nominee isn't shocking at all. Anyways Pence or Trump do look like they start at favorites, but I am not fond of the choices presented here: for instance Romney, Santorum, and Carlson, but no DeSantis, Cotton or Noem?

[JG]

I want to say the safest bet is to ignore this new polling firm going forward, but watch us all get disappointed as they nail the 2024 primaries and general election.

Technically, it's not a new polling firm. It's been around since 1986 in Canada.

Is it reliable?

It is pretty much the gold standard here for Quebec elections. I'm not sure how well it fates in the US, though. It was their first year they started polling the US general election and, like most other pollsters, they overstated Biden's margin of victory at the national level.

[Alcibiades]

I honestly think that Romney, if he ran, could do pretty well in a primary. While all the other candidates tried to out-Trump each other, he could carve out a niche by dominating among the significant minority of GOP primary voters who are not that into Trump, standing out against a fractured field.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I honestly think that Romney, if he ran, could do pretty well in a primary. While all the other candidates tried to out-Trump each other, he could carve out a niche by dominating among the significant minority of GOP primary voters who are not that into Trump, standing out against a fractured field.

Significant miniority? What significant miniority? All 10% of them?