Map megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Battleground Map:

Result:

PV: Biden +5, EC: 296-242
Closest states (margin of 3%-points or less): NC, PA, WI, NV, MI, AZ

Senate: R+3 (Republicans flip WV, OH, and one of MT/WI/MI; hold FL/TX.)

[Tekken_Guy]

President:

Key states: NC (D+0.4), PA (R+0.9), MI (D+1.2), TX (R+1.9), AZ (D+2.1), NV (D+2.3), WI (R+3.1), GA (D+3.6), MN (D+4.9), FL (R+5.5), NH (D+5.9), ME-2 (R+6.0), NM (D+6., NE-2 (D+7.9), ME-AL (D+9.1), OH (R+10.7), IA (R+13.5)

PV: D+4.1

Senate:

Key states: WI (R+0.3), MI (D+1.6), TX (R+2.7), AZ (D+3.1), PA (D+3., NV (D+4.4), FL (R+4.9), OH (R+5.6), NM (D+7.3), ME (D+8.4), MN (D+9.4), MT (R+11), WV (R+33)

[It’s so Joever]

Forumlurker161 scenario;

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=55vk

2020-2023: As expected the GOP holds the Senate and gains the House in the midterms, although not by a landslide. Both parties are ready for action in 2024. At this point, Trump has become almost like the mafia boss of the GOP. He holds the power and a single tweet from his tiny orange hands can change the outcome of any election. He shows this in 2022 when he ensures a few GOP house reps who don’t suck up to him end up losing.
Don Jr runs in his own house race and wins.

Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump reach a secret deal in early 2023.
Trump will ensure to make DeSantis the nominee if Ivanka is his running mate.
Obviously DeSantis agrees and Trump sticks to his word (most unrealistic part imho) and privately pressured opposition to DeSantis when he knows he can.

DeSantis faces some moderates who survive such as Romney and Hogan, but it doesn’t matter because they are token opposition.

Meanwhile Biden/Harris still sticks together despite wide belief Biden would retire. He does get a primary from Ro Khanna, but it dies with South Carolina as expected.

At this rate the economy has recovered for sure and although little legislation was passed, there is a sense of “normalcy”.

Biden/Harris run a pretty anemic campaign, and just barely win despite the fundamentals being strictly on their side.

[MATTROSE94]

I have Ron DeSantis easily winning New Jersey, Connecticut, Colorado, and Rhode Island as well. Georgia and North Carolina might be a problem for him however. In 2028, he probably picks up Illinois, New York, Vermont, Oregon, and Virginia as well.

[AGA]

Shot in the dark prediction



Harris wins the PV by 3-4 points.

[pbrower2a]

On the above map:

The really-interesting area for making distinctions between close, not-so-close, and landslide elections at the state level are between 47% and 60%. Obviously the paler blue for 40-50% has a solid contrast from anything in which the winner gets an absolute majority and a mere plurality. Below 47% one does not ordinarily win any election unless a third-party nominee is mucking things up.

I'd make breaks at 52 (in which one is winning by at least 4%, which is the usual margin of error) and 54% (twice the usual margin of error. 51-48 is still a very close election, but 52-47 is not. (I assume a 1% vote for third parties, independent, or pointless write-in votes as for such luminaries as "Santa Claus", "Jesus", and "Darth Vader" or people obviously ineligible to be President). 55% and up? One wins the state by at least a 10% margin, and further distinctions between 55% and 59% are pointless.

But even short of this, I could have a 50% saturation for wins between 50 and 54%, 60% saturation for wins between 55% and 65% saturation (closest round number as an estimate). Although the numbers look further off, the difference between "56" and "64" is practically less than the difference between "56" and "53". Margins decide winner-take-all states.