Map megathread

[AGA]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

God I hate how Wisconsin just ruins everything in this map

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

South Carolina might as well be an island in the Atlantic at this point

[Hope For A New Era]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

Not if WOW keeps up its trends. Republicans are getting pretty close to maxed out in the northern part of the state by now.

[Alcibiades]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

Not if WOW keeps up its trends. Republicans are getting pretty close to maxed out in the northern part of the state by now.

Indeed. Although the GOP still has plenty of room to grow in the Driftless (although if they will is another question), the WOW trends and growth of Dane County should be real causes for concern for them.

[Hope For A New Era]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

Not if WOW keeps up its trends. Republicans are getting pretty close to maxed out in the northern part of the state by now.

Indeed. Although the GOP still has plenty of room to grow in the Driftless (although if they will is another question), the WOW trends and growth of Dane County should be real causes for concern for them.

Hard to say. The Driftless snapped back hard in 2018, but returned to Trump in 2020. It may be a realignment from the top of the ballot down, or it may just be ground zero of the whole "Trump turns out low-propensity voters" phenomenon. Ron Kind's small margin this year makes me lean toward the second possibility - because these low-propensity voters only really care about Trump, they just vote Republican downballot because Trump is a Republican.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

Not if WOW keeps up its trends. Republicans are getting pretty close to maxed out in the northern part of the state by now.

Indeed. Although the GOP still has plenty of room to grow in the Driftless (although if they will is another question), the WOW trends and growth of Dane County should be real causes for concern for them.

Agreed. Wisconsin will never be Ohio.

[Tekken_Guy]

Figured we needed a map megathread for this board. I'll start with one of my own.

President Biden - Former President Trump

Not if WOW keeps up its trends. Republicans are getting pretty close to maxed out in the northern part of the state by now.

Not exactly. Democrats are still getting like 40% of the vote there. If it goes down to 35% then they'd be in bigger trouble.

[Bomster]

Vice President Harris narrowly beats former President Donald J. Trump to become the 47th President of the United States. Although she fails to appeal to rust belt voters her appeal in the Sun belt allows her to hold on to Arizona and Georgia.

[Canis]

Heres my updated ratings now that most of the votes have been counted and all the states called

Democratic Nominee 233
Republican Nominee 217
Tossups 88
90%= Safe
50% = Likely
30% = Lean
Gray = Tossup

[Ferguson97]

Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and NE-02 probably tilt Harris.
ME-02 and North Carolina probably tilt Republican.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would be pure tossups.

(Don't know how the redistricting for Nebraska and Maine would shake out, but for the sake of discussion let's assume they're relatively the same.)

[MillennialModerate]

It’s almost a sure thing that Nebraska’s EV won’t be split anymore

[Virginiá]

This is really about as far as I would go right now. Gun to my head, it'd not be favorable to Democrats just based on the idea that if Biden or whoever is the nominee experiences some regression in their performance, like the last two incumbents have, then the Democrat would surely lose unless their EC disadvantage was lessened:

[Chips]

This is really about as far as I would go right now. Gun to my head, it'd not be favorable to Democrats just based on the idea that if Biden or whoever is the nominee experiences some regression in their performance, like the last two incumbents have, then the Democrat would surely lose unless their EC disadvantage was lessened:

Huh, How do you get that map?

[Virginiá]

Huh, How do you get that map?

Experimenting with a new feature I created.

[Figueira]

Huh, How do you get that map?

Experimenting with a new feature I created.

Looks like the Mississippi flag still needs to be updated. Nice feature overall though; I hope it goes live.

[Figueira]

By my calculations, this would be an electoral college tie under most Census estimates:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not if WOW keeps up its trends. Republicans are getting pretty close to maxed out in the northern part of the state by now.

Unfortunately, Republicans are not maxed out in northern WI (or in other rural areas of WI like the driftless). There are plenty of rural counties in the north where Biden got 40% or 30%, where a future Dem could get 30% or 20% (and eventually less). There are even a handful of rural counties that Biden won like Ashland, which a future Dem could lose (Menominee being the obvious exception due to Native American population). It is always possible for Dems to lose ground in rural counties unless they are already at like 5% of the white vote. That is the only point at which you can't practically fall further.

[ProgressiveModerate]

[Bomster]

How do you do this!?

[Chips]

[Burke Bro]

[Del Tachi]

This is really about as far as I would go right now. Gun to my head, it'd not be favorable to Democrats just based on the idea that if Biden or whoever is the nominee experiences some regression in their performance, like the last two incumbents have, then the Democrat would surely lose unless their EC disadvantage was lessened:

It would be cool if when you hovered over a state, the detailed results showed a predicted popular vote breakdown.  Since entering that information would be quite time-consuming though, it'd need to be an optional feature

But seriously, how can I do this?

[Virginiá]

This is really about as far as I would go right now. Gun to my head, it'd not be favorable to Democrats just based on the idea that if Biden or whoever is the nominee experiences some regression in their performance, like the last two incumbents have, then the Democrat would surely lose unless their EC disadvantage was lessened:

It would be cool if when you hovered over a state, the detailed results showed a predicted popular vote breakdown.  Since entering that information would be quite time-consuming though, it'd need to be an optional feature

But seriously, how can I do this?

You can actually fill in the pop vote details yourself. The map editor has that option - it's a core part of what I was trying to do. This is not linked with Dave's data sets, so I can't have it pull that data automatically. But if you have the time, you can.

I'm just testing it right now. I'll probably open it up to the forum later this week when I have another day off.

[Del Tachi]