It’s obvious Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg would have lost in landslides

[Motorcity]

They were all polling less than Biden and Sanders. And it’s obvious now that all would have lost in landslides.

They all repeat the 2016 map. I could see them losing NV too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It does appear that Biden was our best bet. Democratic primary voters chose correctly.

I don't necessarily think they would have lost in a landslide though. Trump is incapable of winning one.

[Roll Roons]

Maybe not landslides because of polarization and Trump's unpopularity, but I agree that all three would have lost. Warren would have been sunk by the whole Native American thing, Klobuchar by George Floyd and Pete by his lack of experience and lack of minority appeal. And yes, Sanders would have lost. You know he would have made some stupid comment about rioting.

[Non Swing Voter]

Warren and Bernie would have.  Doubt Klobuchar and Buttigieg would have.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I don't buy this "Biden was the only way to beat Trump" narrative. The primary arguments I heard for him over the alternatives time and time again were:

* He'll win back the rural WWC in the Midwest
* He'll win the elderly to win Florida
* He'll inspire Obama-esque (or at least closer to Obama than Hillary) black margins and turnout

Those first two were extremely marginal at best and highly inconsistent. Biden actually did worse in rural Wisconsin and Ohio than Hillary did, but a little better in rural Michigan and Pennsylvania, while his gains in senior heavy counties like Sumter, FL were basically imperceptible. And he somehow managed to do worse with the black vote than Hillary.

Biden won due to factors totally beyond his control with the biggest being the sheer antipathy towards Trump. If Biden were the necessary component then presumably the above factors would have won him the day. Instead, Biden's victory was won pretty much entirely on extremely strong performances in the suburbs overriding pretty much every other demographic swinging Trump's way.  Frankly, I'm pretty sure 90% of those suburban anti-Trump voters would have cast their vote for a rock if that rock was the highest polling alternative to Trump.

Mind, Warren would have been worse than a rock since she'd only bring negatives to a Democratic ticket, but I've seen no reason to suspect Buttigieg or Klobuchar would have done any worse. They had weaknesses with the black vote during the primaries but it turned out that Biden wasn't great at bringing them out anyway. If anything I'd imagine Buttigieg and Klobuchar would both do slightly better than Biden solely on the basis of the people who didn't vote Biden out of concern about his health.

[Alben Barkley]

Not obvious at all about Klobuchar. Maybe she doesn’t win GA or AZ, but she likely flips the blue wall back and that’s enough.

[Rookie Yinzer]

You forgot Sanders. 👀

[vileplume]

They were all polling less than Biden and Sanders. And it’s obvious now that all would have lost in landslides.

They all repeat the 2016 map. I could see them losing NV too.

I think Klobuchar probably would have won. I mean she wouldn't have won Arizona and Georgia but I reckon she'd have outrun Biden her home region where she does genuinely have a strong appeal. This would have been enough to win even if Nevada flipped to Trump.

I agree Buttigieg likely would have lost, though it would have been somewhat close and he still would have won the popular vote due to doing well in comfortably-off suburbs (possibly outrunning Biden in these areas). Winning Georgia or North Carolina would have been out of the question due to his poor appeal to African American voters, so his path would have likely been flipping Arizona, holding Nevada and winning 2/3 of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. A very tough ask with tepid black appeal but within the realms of possibility with better performances in WOW/Oakland County/Philly suburbs.

Warren though would have been a genuine disaster though, by far the worst serious candidate the Dems could've nominated as she literally appeals to nobody who wasn't already a solid Democratic voter. White working class #populists who may have responded well to Bernie and did swing a bit to Biden would have hated her due to her 'woke' persona and rhetoric, her appeal to non-white voters proved to be rather lacking in the primary meaning she'd almost certainly do worse with them than Biden, whilst many well-off suburban Republicans who pulled the lever for Biden would likely regard her as 'too left' so would either hold their nose and vote for Trump or go third party. In the Electoral College Trump holds all his 2016 states (and NE-2) and picks up Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Maine-AL with New Mexico being a curveball flip. He comfortably wins the popular vote too. The Democrats really did dodge a bullet here.

[GALeftist]

#xcandidatewouldawon tierlist

S

Tio Bernie – The OG wouldawon contender, none of these kids can beat the old master. Once again, he overperformed in the primary among the group the nominee struggled with the most (WWC –> Latinos) and there's at least a convincing argument to be made that he's in as good or better of a position than Biden in all the swing states Biden won save Georgia and maybe Pennsylvania. The fact that Biden floundered in Florida and that congressional Democrats got bopped even with Mr. Electable certainly helps his case.

A

N/A

B

The Klob – Without the George Floyd protests her path is a lot clearer, but I still think she has a convincing argument. She always wins her Senate elections with authoritarian NUT maps, and as other posters have mentioned if she can just expand that appeal to the blue wall states she wins. I'm not convinced that she wins, but she definitely has a shot. (Although I'm sure Trump would have had fun with the salad comb and stapler and stuff like that)

C

N/A

D

Boot edge edge – The central question for everyone's favorite candidate who lost to Richard Mourdock is whether he can expand the margins enough among white voters to make up for his abysmal appeal to voters of color. The fact that Biden seems to have topped out among suburban voters certainly doesn't seem to help his case, and I think he'd be definite underdog, but he might have had a shot.

F

Mini Mike – Diminutive billionaire screeching at you about drinking too much soda? Trump would have had a field day. Again, almost no appeal to voters of color and I find it hard to believe he makes up enough ground among whites to make up for it.

Professor Liz – As much as it pains me to admit it, I don't really see a viable path for Warren in the general, although she's certainly better than Bloomberg; maybe I should have included an F+ tier. Anyway, the main problem is that she, too, was pretty unappealing to voters of color, combined with the fact that her messaging was mainly suited for white libs who would have voted for any D candidate. She's all the controversy of Bernie with fewer of the POC voters and no #populism.

Only candidate that matters tier:

Tulsi – wins 509 votes to Trump's 29 after selling her bathwater. FL still goes Trump tho because of Rick Scott's Titanium Tilt R spell.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

You forgot Sanders. 👀

You may as well say every Democrat who ran in the primaries besides Biden would have lost in a landslide

[Da2017]

I think Klobuchar probably would have won. I mean she wouldn't have won Arizona and Georgia but I reckon she'd have outrun Biden her home region where she does genuinely have a strong appeal. This would have been enough to win even if Nevada flipped to Trump.

I agree Buttigieg likely would have lost, though it would have been somewhat close and he still would have won the popular vote due to doing well in comfortably-off suburbs (possibly outrunning Biden in these areas). Winning Georgia or North Carolina would have been out of the question due to his poor appeal to African American voters, so his path would have likely been flipping Arizona, holding Nevada and winning 2/3 of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. A very tough ask with tepid black appeal but within the realms of possibility with better performances in WOW/Oakland County/Philly suburbs.

Warren though would have been a genuine disaster though, by far the worst serious candidate the Dems could've nominated as she literally appeals to nobody who wasn't already a solid Democratic voter. White working class #populists who may have responded well to Bernie and did swing a bit to Biden would have hated her due to her 'woke' persona and rhetoric, her appeal to non-white voters proved to be rather lacking in the primary meaning she'd almost certainly do worse with them than Biden, whilst many well-off suburban Republicans who pulled the lever for Biden would likely regard her as 'too left' so would either hold their nose and vote for Trump or go third party. In the Electoral College Trump holds all his 2016 states (and NE-2) and picks up Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Maine-AL with New Mexico being a curveball flip. He comfortably wins the popular vote too. The Democrats really did dodge a bullet here.

Good thing Warren was no where near the ticket.

[DrScholl]

I think Warren would have lost because it would have been easy to exploit her plan to eliminate private insurance. Klobuchar would have been able to get Biden's numbers (or maintain Clinton's numbers) with the white working class, but black turnout would have been depressed because of her record as prosecutor. Buttigieg had issues with black voters, he might have been able to remedy those with a black running mate and gone on to win.

[Bootes Void]

-Kobluchar is too vanilla of a candidate and would get hounded with bad press when George Flyod happend in her state especially the place where was the DA in. This would harm potential enthusiasm and support for her. She would definately do worse with minorities especilly black voters. Btw, I think Trump could have won 15-20% of the black vote had george flyod not happend along with a non biden challenger.Klob would still win the upper midwest but lose AZ, GA and maybe NV and NC probably wouldnt be as close

-Buttigieg has the same issues as Klob as being too much of a vanilla candidate but without the appeal to win the upper midwest. Buttigieg is gay and has a husband so that will offend 33% of the voting bloc some of whom might be blacks, latinos, WWC democrats and potential swing voters who are not supportive with LGBT issues. Buttigieg can also be seen as unqualified for the job and lacking leadership abilities considering he was only a mayor. He would lose

- Warren is a woke princess and the people dont want that. She was also a harvard professor so she can easily be painted as out of touch with the common folk.Warren would probably do better than Sanders but it wont be enough and  She would be John Kerry 2.0.

-Not mentioned was Sanders who I think has a high risk/high reward strategy where people can reject rather resoundingly or he wins in a unpredictive win. Biden is kind of the opposite, a dependable guy who can win but wont dramatically change politics. Unlike Biden, Sanders would likely defend the left wing stances better so perhaps the trump arguement can either not cut through or it would hurt Bernie alot, im not sure.

Warren, Buttigieg, Harris and  Bloomberg would probably lose to trump while Sanders could be a wildcard, thats my take

[Skill and Chance]

Warren, yes.  Klobuchar probably wins with at least WI/MI/PA.  Buttigieg probably wins the PV by <1% and does worse than Clinton in the EC, so a clear loss but not a landslide.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie would have won. Klobuchar would have just barely won enough states in the midwest. Warren would have narrowly lost. And Pete probably would have actually lost Miami, LOL.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Bernie would have won.

Very narrowly at best, while losing Miami-Dade.


My take:

Sanders (Yang)


Klobuchar, Warren (Harris)
Buttigieg

Bloomberg (Gabbard)



(Williamson)

[emailking]

It's not obvious to me that any of the candidates in the primary would have lost. Everyone was convinced Trump would lose in 2016, that he was the Republicans' worst candidate. But he won.

And I know the typical explanation is that Hillary was the most hated candidate ever, but so is Trump, and that's who the hypothetical winner would be running against.

[Catalyst138]

I don’t think it’s clear how any of the other candidates would have performed. Too many factors at play here, we all mostly got Biden’s performance wrong. And it’s not like Biden is a perfect candidate either, though he is certainly a good one.

[Hammy]

Warren and Bernie would have.  Doubt Klobuchar and Buttigieg would have.

Warren would've lost even worse than Hillary--she literally handed Trump narrative control on a silver platter by letting him get under her skin so easily.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Biden, Bernie, Yang and Tulsi are the only democratic candidates which could have beat Trump in the election. I've held this viewpoint since the primaries and I stick with it.
Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Klobuchar would have done well as Veep in IA, the two people that did worse in polling in IA were Warren and Harris.  


Unfortunately, for Biden, having Harris on the ticket did Greenfield in , in IA and that's a fact. I know users think Harris is the best thing that ever happened to Biden, but she hurt Greenfield in IA. That's why polling was inconsistent, they loved Biden, but Harris is an AA socialist

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anything polling errors like this one should make us all a little humbler about making bold predictions about how a matchup would go. But alas, what would this forum be without strong claims made with zero evidence.

[Motorcity]

If anything polling errors like this one should make us all a little humbler about making bold predictions about how a matchup would go. But alas, what would this forum be without strong claims made with zero evidence.

No?

Both 2016 and 2020 poll errors were within the margin of error. The reason is they Shy Trump effect and Trump voters not having a landslide

Its just that Biden's lead in the Midwest and Arizona were large enough to withstand a margin of error but not in Florida and North Carolina. Georgia is the only swing state where the polls were accurate thankfully

If we assume the Shy Trump effect would cause polls to be wrong in the margin of error for all possible nominees, and Biden polled the best and only won by 1%, its safe to assume everyone else would have lost

[Kalimantan]

This election was a repudiation of Trump. People who voted for the Democrat didn't care who the Democrat was, they were voting against Trump. No reason to believe they would have changed their mind with any candidate.

[Hammy]

Biden, Bernie, Yang and Tulsi are the only democratic candidates which could have beat Trump in the election. I've held this viewpoint since the primaries and I stick with it.
Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

Tulsi is reviled by many Dems for her right wing pandering, I highly doubt she would've won if she somehow made it through the primary. She's one of only two people (Bloomberg being the other) that I feel certain would've seen a third party challenge.