Will the electoral college trend back toward the Dems?

[MillennialModerate]

In 2000 going into the election Republicans feared and most pundits predicted Bush would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. Of course it turned out to be the opposite.

After Trump losing by 3 points but winning the EC and Trump coming close again in 16 ... now it clearly favors Republicans, are trends going to make that more the case or will the electoral college trend more favorably Dem with the sunbelt trending Dem?

[Hope For A New Era]

Once Texas inevitably flips, it will favor Democrats again, but that looks like it's going to take a while.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot is riding on whether at least 2 of GA, AZ, and NC end up left of the PV.  Or TX as others have mentioned, but that could be a very long way off.  If TX left of the PV won't ever happen, maybe R's get back to +10 there and CA gets cut to +20 Dem like it was in the Obama elections.

[Bootes Void]

if Texas, NC, GA, AZ And FL ever go for dems, they have the advantage.

Also dems could run up the score in the upper midwest like they did in 2008-2012 so they have room to challenge the states outside of the region

[Skill and Chance]

if Texas, NC, GA, AZ And FL ever go for dems, they have the advantage.

Also dems could run up the score in the upper midwest like they did in 2008-2012 so they have room to challenge the states outside of the region

The GOP EC advantage in 2016 was pretty much entirely explained by the giant swing toward Clinton in CA and TX.  This is something else entirely.  Trump improved in California and only lost 3% and 150K off his margin in Texas, which was more than cancelled out by the 250K he gained in Florida.

The big Biden PV win is coming from increasing margins in a bunch of NE states that were surprisingly close and the near CA level blowouts in Washington and Oregon.  Erasing the large Trump margin in Georgia is also relevant.  This is a more distributed coalition that should be more workable in the long run. 

[Agonized-Statism]

The party of small states will always benefit from the electoral college. Democrats can and probably will get to a place where they have a lock on enough EV-rich states to dominate- a realignment starting when the Sun Belt becomes reliably Democrat- but they're probably always going to underperform relative to their popular vote margins since their voters are concentrated in the most populous states. I'm not convinced Republicans will concede an EV-rich state like Texas so easily, and it will be competitive after it flips for some time. Think New York in the late 1800s. Future Republican winners in the electoral college will be popular vote losers as we've already been seeing throughout the 21st century.

This is just the near future, though. The situation could be totally different in 2070.