wait, is CA going to SWING R?

[Crumpets]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

Scott Adams bump?

[Person Man]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

Scott Adams bump?

Maybe an incumbency bump? It could explain how well W did in 2004 in a lot of areas he won that were supposed to cause him problems. Even some places he didn’t need , but averted a total landslide in.

[morgankingsley]

Will he did get a million more votes than last time

[Kamala's side hoe]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/106043/web.264614/#/summary

The precinct results don't really show us the swings here but I would assume that is what happened. If I had to guess the east side of the county swung to Trump while the west side swung to Biden. Places like Milpitas (lots of Filipinos in addition to Indians and Chinese) would be ground zero for a swing towards Trump. Wealthier but also predominantly Asian places like Cupertino or Sunnyvale will show less of a swing to Trump or maybe they swung to Biden. We shall wait to see if I am right.

Milpitas looks like it was around high 60s for Biden, low 30s for Turmp. Which is coincidentally around the same margin the overall Asian vote went for Biden by (Milpitas is at least 60% AAPI). It looks like Biden won 70-75% of the vote in Cupertino and Santa Clara.

The most R urban precincts were within San Jose, just outside the 680 loop and just west of 101, directly south of the Japanese Memorial Garden and Little Saigon. Biden got 50-60% of the vote in those precincts.

The 2010 Census race map of Santa Clara County makes it look like most of the Asian population in San Jose proper is concentrated east of 101. Those Asian-dominant and Asian-Latino mixed precincts are all at least 60% Biden.

[Sbane]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/106043/web.264614/#/summary

The precinct results don't really show us the swings here but I would assume that is what happened. If I had to guess the east side of the county swung to Trump while the west side swung to Biden. Places like Milpitas (lots of Filipinos in addition to Indians and Chinese) would be ground zero for a swing towards Trump. Wealthier but also predominantly Asian places like Cupertino or Sunnyvale will show less of a swing to Trump or maybe they swung to Biden. We shall wait to see if I am right.

Milipitas looks like it was around high 60s for Biden, low 30s for Turmp. Which is coincidentally around the same margin the overall Asian vote went for Biden by (Milipitas is at least 60% AAPI). It looks like Biden won 70-75% of the vote in Cupertino and Santa Clara.

The most R urban precincts were within San Jose, just outside the 680 loop and just west of 101, directly south of the Japanese Memorial Garden and Little Saigon. Biden got 50-60% of the vote in those precincts.

The 2010 Census race map of Santa Clara County makes it look like most of the Asian population in San Jose proper is concentrated east of 101. Those Asian-dominant and Asian-Latino mixed precincts are all at least 60% Biden.

Trump lost 73-21% in Milpitas last time, so possibly a double digit swing towards him there. While at the same time Biden is cracking 80% in Mountain View and Palo Alto. 93% at Stanford lol.

[CityByTheValley]

Milipitas looks like it was around high 60s for Biden, low 30s for Turmp. Which is coincidentally around the same margin the overall Asian vote went for Biden by (Milipitas is at least 60% AAPI). It looks like Biden won 70-75% of the vote in Cupertino and Santa Clara.

The most R urban precincts were within San Jose, just outside the 680 loop and just west of 101, directly south of the Japanese Memorial Garden and Little Saigon. Biden got 50-60% of the vote in those precincts.

The 2010 Census race map of Santa Clara County makes it look like most of the Asian population in San Jose proper is concentrated east of 101. Those Asian-dominant and Asian-Latino mixed precincts are all at least 60% Biden.

I honestly think a large part of the SCC swing was mostly Vietnamese and Mexican precincts in San Jose. Just comparing Hillary's map to Biden's, there are precincts where she got 70%+ of the vote in Vietnamese heavy areas and Biden only got 55%. I'm sure a smaller yet noticeable gap is present in Mexican dominated precincts as well. Overall it's hard to assume SCC swinging right means Silicon Valley techbros or Asian techies are the cause when only half of the county is tech based, leaving close to 1 million non tech centered residents in parts of San Jose, Gilroy, and Morgan Hill. Mix that with a 30% Hispanic population and a large group of the least Democrat-friendly Asian group and you get an area primed to turn out for Trump (more than last time at least, the swing was more Trump going up 5% since Biden maintained Hillary's performance here with a huge overall 72-25 margin) that overwhelms any Silicon Valley movement to Biden (which there likely was).

Other than that I predict Asians will definitely realign by education (and by proxy wealth) like whites have and are continuing to do so. Compare Milpitas' seemingly double digit Trump swing to the nonexistent Trump swing in Cupertino to the slight Biden swing in Saratoga. All SCC cities with heavy Asian populations with Milpitas 67%, Cupertino 68%, Saratoga 49%, but the former is more Outer East Bay/Fremont style while the latter two are Silicon Valley suburbs. The clear difference is educational attainment where we have Milpitas with 48% Bachelor's or higher while the numbers are 30% higher in Cupertino and Saratoga which have 78% each. As a result of this education disparity you can also see a gap in median income with Milpitas $125k, Cupertino $164k, Saratoga $177k.

If you want a comparison think of the more educated "upscale" wealth in Westchester/Fairfield versus the less educated "trashy" wealth in Long Island, with the former two swinging to Clinton while the latter was stagnant or trended away depending on where you look.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Milipitas looks like it was around high 60s for Biden, low 30s for Turmp. Which is coincidentally around the same margin the overall Asian vote went for Biden by (Milipitas is at least 60% AAPI). It looks like Biden won 70-75% of the vote in Cupertino and Santa Clara.

The most R urban precincts were within San Jose, just outside the 680 loop and just west of 101, directly south of the Japanese Memorial Garden and Little Saigon. Biden got 50-60% of the vote in those precincts.

The 2010 Census race map of Santa Clara County makes it look like most of the Asian population in San Jose proper is concentrated east of 101. Those Asian-dominant and Asian-Latino mixed precincts are all at least 60% Biden.

I honestly think a large part of the SCC swing was mostly Vietnamese and Mexican precincts in San Jose. Just comparing Hillary's map to Biden's, there are precincts where she got 70%+ of the vote in Vietnamese heavy areas and Biden only got 55%. I'm sure a smaller yet noticeable gap is present in Mexican dominated precincts as well. Overall it's hard to assume SCC swinging right means Silicon Valley techbros or Asian techies are the cause when only half of the county is tech based, leaving close to 1 million non tech centered residents in parts of San Jose, Gilroy, and Morgan Hill. Mix that with a 30% Hispanic population and a large group of the least Democrat-friendly Asian group and you get an area primed to turn out for Trump (more than last time at least, the swing was more Trump going up 5% since Biden maintained Hillary's performance here with a huge overall 72-25 margin) that overwhelms any Silicon Valley movement to Biden (which there likely was).

Other than that I predict Asians will definitely realign by education (and by proxy wealth) like whites have and are continuing to do so. Compare Milpitas' seemingly double digit Trump swing to the nonexistent Trump swing in Cupertino to the slight Biden swing in Saratoga. All SCC cities with heavy Asian populations with Milpitas 67%, Cupertino 68%, Saratoga 49%, but the former is more Outer East Bay/Fremont style while the latter two are Silicon Valley suburbs. The clear difference is educational attainment where we have Milpitas with 48% Bachelor's or higher while the numbers are 30% higher in Cupertino and Saratoga which have 78% each. As a result of this education disparity you can also see a gap in median income with Milpitas $125k, Cupertino $164k, Saratoga $177k.

If you want a comparison think of the more educated "upscale" wealth in Westchester/Fairfield versus the less educated "trashy" wealth in Long Island, with the former two swinging to Clinton while the latter was stagnant or trended away depending on where you look.

Where in San Jose proper do most of the Vietnamese Americans in the city live? I noticed the Trumpiest precincts were closer to Little Saigon and probably have some Vietnamese presence, but that area seems too commercial for most of the Vietnamese population to live there. Are the majority/plurality Asian areas east of highway 101 also mostly Vietnamese?

Re: future realignment among Asians- I've noticed Vietnamese Americans have higher integenerational educational mobility than other Asian groups (certainly more than Filipinos it seems). I suspect this + partial demographic replacement with newer immigration will somewhat counterbalance the reversion toward the GOP that happened during 45's administration.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

It's ominous if California swings R (Minority appeal and/or maxed votes) and it's ominous if California swings D (National PV/EV gap).

California does wrong no matter what

I'd obviously prefer that CA swings D, but this wouldn't be an issue in the Electoral College if the state trends R.