Is California maxxed out for Democrats?

[iceman]

In a year where majority of Blue Leaning states swung heavily to Biden, California barely budged percentage-wise. Do you think it is maxxed out for DEMs by now? Will the GOP have more room to grow?

[Agonized-Statism]

Too soon to tell, but if Trump's performance with minorities isn't just a one-time thing, it could swing a little to the Republicans over the next few cycles.

[Roll Roons]

They've almost certainly hit their ceilings in the Bay Area and probably have in LA County. But I guess it's possible that they could grow in Orange if they find a way to shake off the "socialism" label.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not necessarily. A lot of Republicans are probably going to move out of there (and many have left already) so you could potentially see 65%+ D California in the future, even if Hispanics continue to be a problem for Democrats.

[Heisenberg]

I think San Diego is another county where Republicans have more room to fall among Whites. Look at CA-52. Hard to believe it was a swing seat, and only Obama +1 (IIRC?) in 2012. CA-07, in the Sacramento area, is another. Very close margins in 2012 and 2014, then stampeded hard left.

[Ye We Can]

I think statewide yes.  Further Democratic gains in the Inland Empire and the rest of the Suburbs will probably cancel out minority drift to the Republicans.

[EastwoodS]

I think statewide yes.  Further Democratic gains in the Inland Empire and the rest of the Suburbs will probably cancel out minority drift to the Republicans.

Lmao, why do you think the suburbs will keep drifting left? Without Trump they are inherently Republican.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think statewide yes.  Further Democratic gains in the Inland Empire and the rest of the Suburbs will probably cancel out minority drift to the Republicans.

For the record, the Inland Empire votes Democratic only because of Latinos. Otherwise, it would just be another downscale white exurb.

But no, I stand by my earlier statement that Democrats can clear 70% in California. Democrats should be able to clear 65% in Orange, Sacramento, and San Diego Counties, 80% in Los Angeles County, 70% along the whole Central Coast, and start winning the East Sacramento suburbs. Plus fast growth in the Bay Area is only netting more Democratic votes.

[CapoteMonster]

I lean towards probably not because the youth vote in CA is voting democrat by insane 70-80% vote totals. The under 30 vote was 79-20 in favor of Biden this year.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't think there is any such thing as being "maxxed out" (unless you reach, like, District of Columbia / rural Texas Panhandle levels) but I'm not really convinced that California will only keep getting more Democratic.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I think statewide yes.  Further Democratic gains in the Inland Empire and the rest of the Suburbs will probably cancel out minority drift to the Republicans.

For the record, the Inland Empire votes Democratic only because of Latinos. Otherwise, it would just be another downscale white exurb.

But no, I stand by my earlier statement that Democrats can clear 70% in California. Democrats should be able to clear 65% in Orange, Sacramento, and San Diego Counties, 80% in Los Angeles County, 70% along the whole Central Coast, and start winning the East Sacramento suburbs. Plus fast growth in the Bay Area is only netting more Democratic votes.

Explain why both Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties swung 5% towards Trump then. Biden actually won a slightly lower percentage of the vote in LA County than Hillary did.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think statewide yes.  Further Democratic gains in the Inland Empire and the rest of the Suburbs will probably cancel out minority drift to the Republicans.

For the record, the Inland Empire votes Democratic only because of Latinos. Otherwise, it would just be another downscale white exurb.

But no, I stand by my earlier statement that Democrats can clear 70% in California. Democrats should be able to clear 65% in Orange, Sacramento, and San Diego Counties, 80% in Los Angeles County, 70% along the whole Central Coast, and start winning the East Sacramento suburbs. Plus fast growth in the Bay Area is only netting more Democratic votes.

Explain why both Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties swung 5% towards Trump then. Biden actually won a slightly lower percentage of the vote in LA County than Hillary did.

Evidently lower propensity voters turned out and preferred Trump. I'm not saying that California will swing D going forward. I'm saying that it could. I think the benchmarks I put forward are reasonable best-case scenarios for Democrats and clearing 70% statewide is a realistic possibility.

[Ye We Can]

I think statewide yes.  Further Democratic gains in the Inland Empire and the rest of the Suburbs will probably cancel out minority drift to the Republicans.

Lmao, why do you think the suburbs will keep drifting left? Without Trump they are inherently Republican.

It's not the 90s anymore, new guy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[lfromnj]

Weirdly I heard that CA 33rd which isn't even that blue only moved like half a point left. What Demographics are there that helped the GOP? Its a 70% White district that was "only" Clinton +40 in suburban Los Angeles.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Weirdly I heard that CA 33rd which isn't even that blue only moved like half a point left. What Demographics are there that helped the GOP? Its a 70% White district that was "only" Clinton +40 in suburban Los Angeles.

That's Ted Lieu's district. It contains Malibu, Beverly Hills and the Palo Verde Peninsula, which is (afaik) the only part of Los Angeles proper that leans Republican.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Weirdly I heard that CA 33rd which isn't even that blue only moved like half a point left. What Demographics are there that helped the GOP? Its a 70% White district that was "only" Clinton +40 in suburban Los Angeles.

First off, it isn't really suburban. Basically, it's the most "elite" part of Southern California if not the entire United States. It has Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Santa Monica, Marina Del Rey, Malibu, etc. which are basically our version of Uptown Manhattan+the Hamptons. It also has a sizable Jewish and Iranian Community (heavy overlap between the two) and iirc one of the highest Japanese populations of any district in the USA.

[Sestak]

There is no such thing as maxed out.


(Short of 100% of the vote with 100% eligible turnout with no population growth occurring).

There will always be more room to gain/fall.

[lfromnj]

Weirdly I heard that CA 33rd which isn't even that blue only moved like half a point left. What Demographics are there that helped the GOP? Its a 70% White district that was "only" Clinton +40 in suburban Los Angeles.

First off, it isn't really suburban. Basically, it's the most "elite" part of Southern California if not the entire United States. It has Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Santa Monica, Marina Del Rey, Malibu, etc. which are basically our version of Uptown Manhattan+the Hamptons. It also has a sizable Jewish and Iranian Community (heavy overlap between the two) and iirc one of the highest Japanese populations of any district in the USA.

Yup I did hear about those 2 groups, wanted to confirm it to make sure. I did know its an elite district but I heard it barely swung D which was a bit perplexing.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Weirdly I heard that CA 33rd which isn't even that blue only moved like half a point left. What Demographics are there that helped the GOP? Its a 70% White district that was "only" Clinton +40 in suburban Los Angeles.

First off, it isn't really suburban. Basically, it's the most "elite" part of Southern California if not the entire United States. It has Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Santa Monica, Marina Del Rey, Malibu, etc. which are basically our version of Uptown Manhattan+the Hamptons. It also has a sizable Jewish and Iranian Community (heavy overlap between the two) and iirc one of the highest Japanese populations of any district in the USA.

Spot on, it's just rich people playground basically, at a certain point only so many dems can end up in there with the old money holding the rest of the ground.

[lfromnj]

Anyone know how Atherton voted this year?