NM 2022: Ronchetti for Governor?

[YE]

Likely D unless MLG implodes.

[Woody]

After seeing Virginia and New Jersey's results (especially after seeing the Hispanic numbers), I am pretty sure a proven overperformer like Ronchetti could win over a garbage governor like Lujan Grisham, who is plagued by scandals/border security.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yeah I can't believe Im agreeing with Woodbury but I definitely see a path for Ronchetti here.

[Left Wing]

With Murphy breaking New Jersey’s streak, this state is now tied with Kansas for the longest streak of voting for governors of the opposite party of the president.

[Pericles]

This is an opportunity for Republicans, but Likely D is a good rating at this stage.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is an opportunity for Republicans, but Likely D is a good rating at this stage.

Agreed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is an opportunity for Republicans, but Likely D is a good rating at this stage.

Lol no, I visited NM, it's not AZ its a poor Latino state not rich Latino state most Latinozms live in trailers not 700 K Himes

[😥]

He actually has a chance. Lean D as for now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He actually has a chance. Lean D as for now

No he doesnt

[Sir Mohamed]

Yeah I can't believe Im agreeing with Woodbury but I definitely see a path for Ronchetti here.

Yup, it's a possibility. MLG is fore sure a lot safer than Whitmer, Evers or Sisolak, though this could actually end up as competitive race. In the same climate as today, it would be decided within 3-4 pts in either direction, I think.

[Woody]

Source: https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/new-mexico-supreme-court-rules-against-gov-lujan-grisham-in-federal-funds-spending-lawsuit/6304942/

SANTA FE, N.M. – The New Mexico Supreme Court ruled against Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham Wednesday, and handed a win to the state lawmakers who sued her, claiming she overstepped her authority.

The high court agreed state legislators should be in charge of distributing more than a billion dollars in COVID relief funding. According to the petition, $1.08 billion remains in the state treasury. So far, the governor appropriated more than $600 million.

[ElectionsGuy]

This doesn't seem like a Likely D race.

I don't know why people think blue-leaning states will have the same margin in a R-leaning midterm as during a presidential year. NM is a D+6 state, and this governor hasn't exactly governed in a broadly approved of or bipartisan way.

[Utah Neolib]

Lean D. Ronchetti is a good candidate, and he has a good chance at winning this. I can also see Ronchetti winning this in 2026 if it’s a Biden midterm or running for senate in 2026 and winning.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Out of the loop here but what exactly makes Ronchetti a good candidate other than the fact that he overperformed last year? I feel like the "overperforming formerly under the radar Senate loser" hasn't had much success lately (Ed Gillespie, John James, etc)

[Judge Phil]

Ronchetti didn’t even get automatic ballot access.

Quite embarrassing.

[YTPoliticker]

An upset is possible, but I think polarization saves it for MLG

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Safe D state

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There’s not a general NM megathread, but I tangentially know someone (went to middle and high school with his boyfriend) who won the Republican primary for a state House of Representatives sear.

[Nutmeg]

There’s not a general NM megathread, but I tangentially know someone (went to middle and high school with his boyfriend) who won the Republican primary for a state House of Representatives sear.

A gay Republican in New Mexico, eh?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There’s not a general NM megathread, but I tangentially know someone (went to middle and high school with his boyfriend) who won the Republican primary for a state House of Representatives sear.

A gay Republican in New Mexico, eh?

Yup. Probably not that hard to find the one I’m referring to.

I’m still bewildered by the existence of gay Republicans, but that’s for another topic. All I can say is that the guy I know has been a conservative since at least high school. I think that he met the perfect match. Haven’t talked to him since 2014 other than admitting that my 2016 prediction was trash on election night and then in 2020 to say that I hoped he enjoyed the last four years (i.e. the Trump admin). Didn’t get a response to the latter one and then they went to January 6th, so yeah.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There’s not a general NM megathread, but I tangentially know someone (went to middle and high school with his boyfriend) who won the Republican primary for a state House of Representatives sear.

A gay Republican in New Mexico, eh?

Yup. Probably not that hard to find the one I’m referring to.

I’m still bewildered by the existence of gay Republicans, but that’s for another topic. All I can say is that the guy I know has been a conservative since at least high school. I think that he met the perfect match. Haven’t talked to him since 2014 other than admitting that my 2016 prediction was trash on election night and then in 2020 to say that I hoped he enjoyed the last four years (i.e. the Trump admin). Didn’t get a response to the latter one and then they went to January 6th, so yeah.

This is a bit stereotyping but generally gay men either seem notably more masculine or feminine than straight men in how they present themselves.

Consdiering there's such a masculinity/feminity divide in our politics, I wouldn't be suprized if Republicans do well with the "ultra masculine" gay male vote

[ProgressiveModerate]

This doesn't seem like a Likely D race.

I don't know why people think blue-leaning states will have the same margin in a R-leaning midterm as during a presidential year. NM is a D+6 state, and this governor hasn't exactly governed in a broadly approved of or bipartisan way.

Ig the question is are Dem/liberal votes alone enough to win NM?

NM Rs really haven't had success in recent years, and much of the D vote is from very reliable communities for them (Native Americans, Santa Fe, liberal parts of Albq)

If Ronchetti or really any Rs want to win statewide, it'd likely be through a combination of Hispanics and Albq suburbs which still show downballot R tendencies.

One thing that suprized me in 2020 was how heavily Hispanic Dona Ana County swung left, but it'd a bit weird cause it seems like a bit of an El Paso suburb rather than a "true" Hispanic border County.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There’s not a general NM megathread, but I tangentially know someone (went to middle and high school with his boyfriend) who won the Republican primary for a state House of Representatives sear.

A gay Republican in New Mexico, eh?

Yup. Probably not that hard to find the one I’m referring to.

I’m still bewildered by the existence of gay Republicans, but that’s for another topic. All I can say is that the guy I know has been a conservative since at least high school. I think that he met the perfect match. Haven’t talked to him since 2014 other than admitting that my 2016 prediction was trash on election night and then in 2020 to say that I hoped he enjoyed the last four years (i.e. the Trump admin). Didn’t get a response to the latter one and then they went to January 6th, so yeah.

This is a bit stereotyping but generally gay men either seem notably more masculine or feminine than straight men in how they present themselves.

Consdiering there's such a masculinity/feminity divide in our politics, I wouldn't be suprized if Republicans do well with the "ultra masculine" gay male vote

My (former?) friend didn’t really come off as either. Just an ordinary looking dude. His boyfriend (the primary winner) looks cherubic, but I wouldn’t say feminine. Just really young looking (and *I* get mistaken as being younger than I am).

I always thought that my friend’s more secular conservatism was scary because at least the Christian conservatives were somewhat predictable. I think that the Trump admin proved me right, not that I really care to brag (I’d rather be wrong in this case).

[wbrocks67]

The hype around Ronchetti seems very inflated, and I'm confused as to how Ron DeSantis of all people is supposed to make him look like some moderate hero?

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1558920433352810497

[Real Texan Politics]

Hmm, this could help him a bit.
https://twitter.com/MarkRonchettiNM/status/1576999550018994176?s=20&t=0kegt6...