NM 2022: Ronchetti for Governor?

[Woody]

?

[SnowLabrador]

He'd probably be one of the strongest candidates. He lost to Lujan by less than 6%.

[lfromnj]

Weatherman/Newscasters are always a solid candidate for either party to run.

[Del Tachi]

I'd be down.  MLG could well be on here way to being a one-termer, Morning Consult only has her approval as a pretty anemic +5

[Left Wing]

According to Politico Lujan Grisham is the frontrunner for HHS. I wonder if Howie Morales becoming governor would make this seat more vulnerable.

[Not Me, Us]

According to Politico Lujan Grisham is the frontrunner for HHS. I wonder if Howie Morales becoming governor would make this seat more vulnerable.

I think the effect would be negligible. Lujan Grisham doesn't seem to be especially popular, so I don't really think she that strong of an incumbent.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, it would be a close race.

[Calthrina950]

Why is Lujan-Grisham so unpopular, relatively speaking? I know that New Mexico has had some of the toughest coronavirus restrictions in the country, and there's been a good deal of backlash to these restrictions.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why is Lujan-Grisham so unpopular, relatively speaking? I know that New Mexico has had some of the toughest coronavirus restrictions in the country, and there's been a good deal of backlash to these restrictions.

She's also flouted them herself to purchase jewellery. That hypocrisy stuck to senior government advisor Dominic Cummings in the UK for months, and now he's announced his departure from the government in December.

[Kingpoleon]

I think Richard J. Berry is the best bet to win back a state as Democratic as New Mexico.

[Mexican Wolf]

He'd probably be one of the strongest candidates. He lost to Lujan by less than 6%.

Interestingly, Lujan defeated Ronchetti with almost the exact same percentage and margin as Heinrich defeated Wilson in 2012 (51%-45%). That was another election where the incumbent Dem senator resigned and a Dem member of the house ran for the open seat. It makes me wonder if this is the partisan baseline for open-seat statewide races in New Mexico nowadays.

Anyway, I guess Ronchetti could run in 2022, but I still think Grisham would win reelection.

[Terfnerf]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dowfornm/status/1412791467404402689

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, Michelle Lujan Grisham has a 60% approvals due to her response to Covid, she's not loosing, that's why we easily won MlNM Special

Rs need to learn, we're not loosing NM

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Weatherman/Newscasters are always a solid candidate for either party to run.

Takes notes

[Chips]

The race starts out as Lean D for me but it's certainly possible the GOP could pull it off here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The race starts out as Lean D for me but it's certainly possible the GOP could pull it off here.

Rs aren't gonna win NM when they lost the special easily

[Chips]

The race starts out as Lean D for me but it's certainly possible the GOP could pull it off here.

Rs aren't gonna win NM when they lost the special easily

I'm not saying the GOP will win here, I'm saying they could.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/markronchettinm/status/1453391042577768451?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Gonna be a tough race, but he is a A-tier candidate.

[President Johnson]

Likely Democratic until proven otherwise.

[LAB-LIB]

Grisham starts out as the favorite, but it could easily become competitive. Ronchetti has a real shot here. He only lost by 6% in a more partisan Senate race in a Presidential year, it's not impossible for him to win in a less partisan governor's race in an off-year election with a Democrat sitting in the White House.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This forum is way too bearish on New Mexico for Democrats. I think it's going to be likely D even with Ronchetti.

[S019]

Likely D, yawn, for Ronchetti to win he'd need to do even better in the Albuquerque metro last year (probably much better), and I just don't see it happening. Susana Martinez won Bernalillo County twice, I can't see Ronchetti even getting it within 10.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely D, yawn, for Ronchetti to win he'd need to do even better in the Albuquerque metro last year (probably much better), and I just don't see it happening. Susana Martinez won Bernalillo County twice, I can't see Ronchetti even getting it within 10.

Let's not forget about the special election in NM-1 from this year. For an off-year election to be that lopsided in favor of the Democrats, I really don't see how Republicans have a chance statewide.

[THG]

This race is a Tossup.

Grisham is a very weak incumbent particularly in light of certain allegations that have come out recently.