Pennsylvania going forward...

[Alben Barkley]

There's been a lot of discussion about whether Pennsylvania will remain a purple/swing state after this election, will start to become a (non-Atlas) red state like Ohio, or actually become a blue state like Virginia due to the growth of the Philly area.

A lot of that depends on whether you think the GOP has "maxed out" the rural areas of the state but Democrats still have room to grow in places like the Philly suburbs. This election provided some evidence that may be the case, but it's still an open question how much of that was just due to "Scranton Joe" being a particularly good fit for the state, and how much of it may be a sign for Dems going forward that we're still alive and well in PA.

[EastwoodS]

There's been a lot of discussion about whether Pennsylvania will remain a purple/swing state after this election, will start to become a (non-Atlas) red state like Ohio, or actually become a blue state like Virginia due to the growth of the Philly area.

A lot of that depends on whether you think the GOP has "maxed out" the rural areas of the state but Democrats still have room to grow in places like the Philly suburbs. This election provided some evidence that may be the case, but it's still an open question how much of that was just due to "Scranton Joe" being a particularly good fit for the state, and how much of it may be a sign for Dems going forward that we're still alive and well in PA.

Well, considering that Republicans have significantly closed the gap with Democrats in terms of party registration since 2016, I would say Pennsylvania is purple now. However, in counties such as Erie, Republicans did not “max out their vote” in cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh Democrats almost maxed out their vote. Plus, Republicans can easily find a young, Trump like candidate that can help them in the suburbs (even-though I think practically any Republican would flip the suburbs again in 2024). So no Republicans haven’t maxed out anything.

[Alcibiades]

No matter the alignment, PA has the perfect combination of different demographics and areas that it will always be purple.

[Bootes Void]

the largest and fastest growing counties in PA swung biden, it could be titanium tilt D with good organization

[Hope For A New Era]

PA will take Ohio's place as The Bellwether State™.

It's always been competitive, of course, with the exception of the 1992-2012 period.

Its demographics and geography just happen to line up just right to make it so. It's got "a little bit of everything."


It'll be Titanium Tilt.
That is to say, tossup, but always won by very small margins at the federal level.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's going to remain a fairly evenly divided state but I'd rather be Democrats in the current environment.  Few Republicans are going to match Trump's rural support and turnout there.  Even with such massive turnout Biden won, particularly because he decimated Trump in the Philly suburbs. 

Running a low charisma candidate like Cruz, Hawley or Rubio isn't going to get huge rural turnout and it's not going to get random minority support from Philly.  That means they'd need to reverse the trendiness in major metros like the Philly suburbs.  Unlikely.  That's why I'd give a generic Democrat the advantage over a generic Republican. 

[AlterEgo]

(even-though I think practically any Republican would flip the suburbs again in 2024).

Why?

[Blackacre]

PA looks like it's going to be the main bellwether state for the next few cycles, replacing Ohio, Colorado, and Florida. (though I'd argue Florida lost its bellwether status as early as 2004, and Ohio and Colorado both lost it in 2016) The question for me is to what extent will Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada stick with it in bellwether-land?

[King of Kensington]

What's the impact of exurban New York on PA? 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump was and is a very good fit for PA, and so is Biden. As Bob Casey said, I don't think the GOP will find someone as strong of a performer here for quite some time.

[King of Kensington]

That's a good point - both had appeal to "Casey Democrats."