North Carolina

[wbrocks67]

So, it looks like Dems made inroads there this year - Trump is up by 1.3% now, but it may fall to around 1.0 or slightly below once all mail ins are counted. That represents a 3% shift left from 2016, which was good but not enough. What do Dems have to do there to get that last 1%?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

[VBM]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Stop scapegoating AOC and the Squad. The problem with the Democrats is that they let Republicans set the framing on everything and try to wiggle out of defending any of their policies, which makes low info voters think that the Democrats policies must be awful, like the Republicans are saying, or else why are they being so evasive?

[wbrocks67]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Stop scapegoating AOC and the Squad. The problem with the Democrats is that they let Republicans set the framing on everything and try to wiggle out of defending any of their policies, which makes low info voters think that the Democrats policies must be awful, like the Republicans are saying, or else why are they being so evasive?

The funny thing is, the GOP literally had no plans. The only tactic they had was fear mongering. Which apparently did work in some sectors, so the Democrats just need to get better at combatting that. Unfortunately, the problem for Dems is that they aren't as inherently disingenuous as Republicans are.

[Catalyst138]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Hillary loses: “It’s Bernie’s fault, he made her lose.”

Biden wins: “It’s AOC’s fault, if she wasn’t there he would have won by more.”

I’m getting tired of this. There’s no evidence that progressive or “radical” Democrats made Biden do worse in any state not named Florida.

[ultraviolet]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Hillary loses: “It’s Bernie’s fault, he made her lose.”

Biden wins: “It’s AOC’s fault, if she wasn’t there he would have won by more.”

I’m getting tired of this. There’s no evidence that progressive or “radical” Democrats made Biden do worse in any state not named Florida.

AOC is the one trying to complain about how Biden should have won by more

[Bootes Void]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Hillary loses: “It’s Bernie’s fault, he made her lose.”

Biden wins: “It’s AOC’s fault, if she wasn’t there he would have won by more.”

I’m getting tired of this. There’s no evidence that progressive or “radical” Democrats made Biden do worse in any state not named Florida.

AOC is the one trying to complain about how Biden should have won by more

Yea that's the stupid, you should celebrate the fact that he won and not complain about it

[wbrocks67]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Hillary loses: “It’s Bernie’s fault, he made her lose.”

Biden wins: “It’s AOC’s fault, if she wasn’t there he would have won by more.”

I’m getting tired of this. There’s no evidence that progressive or “radical” Democrats made Biden do worse in any state not named Florida.

AOC is the one trying to complain about how Biden should have won by more

Which seems like a bad argument given the fact if the reason Dems lost is because they got tied to unpopular activist policies, then any other Dem probably would've done worse than Biden did.

Given Biden's strength, and increase in support from white men voters in particular, it looks like his appeal had the most strength against Trump.

[DINGO Joe]

The most interesting thing about NC is that the swing map and a US Census map that shows population change over the last decade is an almost perfect correlation of counties that lost population swinging to Trump and vice versa.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Stop scapegoating AOC and the Squad. The problem with the Democrats is that they let Republicans set the framing on everything and try to wiggle out of defending any of their policies, which makes low info voters think that the Democrats policies must be awful, like the Republicans are saying, or else why are they being so evasive?

That's a fact. Half of the politicians Gmac loves are up to their necks in donations from pharma and health insurance racketeering companies, so why would they ever defend the progressive policies some in the party support?

[Catalyst138]

Same problems as in other states.  Better messaging, better social media savvy and online presence, stop AOC and Ilhan Omar from being the face of the party.

That said, in NC in particular, I think Biden would probably have won if the universities were in session and we were able to go out and register young voters.

Hillary loses: “It’s Bernie’s fault, he made her lose.”

Biden wins: “It’s AOC’s fault, if she wasn’t there he would have won by more.”

I’m getting tired of this. There’s no evidence that progressive or “radical” Democrats made Biden do worse in any state not named Florida.

AOC is the one trying to complain about how Biden should have won by more

I mean I think most Democrats are disappointed at the results, considering how the polls showed Biden leading by near-landslide margins and taking back the Senate.

It’s not about Dems having policies too far left or too centrist, it’s more about how Dems communicate their platform to the people.

[Del Tachi]

Obama's 2008 squeaker was powered by rural Democratic turnout in the Sandhills and parts of Western NC.  Robeson County (pop. ~130k) had a huge swing from 2008-20, going from 57-43 Obama to 58-40 Trump.   You seem some similar GOP gains in places like Madison County (Western NC), while the suburbs are very stable (Union was 63-36 McCain, 62-37 Biden; Johnson was 61-38 McCain, 62-37 Trump.)

The only significant Democratic gains (in a numerical sense) are in the urban counties of Mecklenberg and Wake.  Biden got close to 2/3 in Mecklenberg and 62% in Wake, which are both marginal improvements over Obama's 2008 performance (62% and 57%, respectively.)  Bush actually won both of these counties in 2004, even with favorite son John Edwards on the ballot (evidence that the "college educated" trend among Democrats started with Kerry/Obama, not Trump.)

The problem for D's going forward is that Charlotte and RDU are relatively small in both an abosolute and relative sense (especially compared to Atlanta's influence on GA, for example.)  Moreover, while the industry mix in RDU (science/tech, engineering, higher ed) is good for attracting diverse, college-educated transplants to the metro, Charlotte (the bigger of the two) is more of a mixed-bag due to the heavy influence of the finance sector there.  Georgia also has the benefit of a more urbane Black population that is wealthier and easier to turnout/organize.     

Basically, as long as current partisan trends continue, North Carolina will continue to be a tough nut for Democrats to crack.  It's cities are smaller and less dynamic than Atlanta, so while they are growing these gains are being matched by further Democratic collapse in the rural areas and decreased turnout/margins among Black voters.

[Person Man]

Obama's 2008 squeaker was powered by rural Democratic turnout in the Sandhills and parts of Western NC.  Robeson County (pop. ~130k) had a huge swing from 2008-20, going from 57-43 Obama to 58-40 Trump.   You seem some similar GOP gains in places like Madison County (Western NC), while the suburbs are very stable (Union was 63-36 McCain, 62-37 Biden; Johnson was 61-38 McCain, 62-37 Trump.)

The only significant Democratic gains (in a numerical sense) are in the urban counties of Mecklenberg and Wake.  Biden got close to 2/3 in Mecklenberg and 62% in Wake, which are both marginal improvements over Obama's 2008 performance (62% and 57%, respectively.)  Bush actually won both of these counties in 2004, even with favorite son John Edwards on the ballot (evidence that the "college educated" trend among Democrats started with Kerry/Obama, not Trump.)

The problem for D's going forward is that Charlotte and RDU are relatively small in both an abosolute and relative sense (especially compared to Atlanta's influence on GA, for example.)  Moreover, while the industry mix in RDU (science/tech, engineering, higher ed) is good for attracting diverse, college-educated transplants to the metro, Charlotte (the bigger of the two) is more of a mixed-bag due to the heavy influence of the finance sector there.  Georgia also has the benefit of a more urbane Black population that is wealthier and easier to turnout/organize.     

Basically, as long as current partisan trends continue, North Carolina will continue to be a tough nut for Democrats to crack.  It's cities are smaller and less dynamic than Atlanta, so while they are growing these gains are being matched by further Democratic collapse in the rural areas and decreased turnout/margins among Black voters.

So generally the problem they have in Texas and Florida to some extent and what they are coming up against in the Rust Belt.  People are just more spread out than they are in other states. The cities aren't that big and a lot of the rural areas are just exurban sprawl.

[Del Tachi]

Obama's 2008 squeaker was powered by rural Democratic turnout in the Sandhills and parts of Western NC.  Robeson County (pop. ~130k) had a huge swing from 2008-20, going from 57-43 Obama to 58-40 Trump.   You seem some similar GOP gains in places like Madison County (Western NC), while the suburbs are very stable (Union was 63-36 McCain, 62-37 Biden; Johnson was 61-38 McCain, 62-37 Trump.)

The only significant Democratic gains (in a numerical sense) are in the urban counties of Mecklenberg and Wake.  Biden got close to 2/3 in Mecklenberg and 62% in Wake, which are both marginal improvements over Obama's 2008 performance (62% and 57%, respectively.)  Bush actually won both of these counties in 2004, even with favorite son John Edwards on the ballot (evidence that the "college educated" trend among Democrats started with Kerry/Obama, not Trump.)

The problem for D's going forward is that Charlotte and RDU are relatively small in both an abosolute and relative sense (especially compared to Atlanta's influence on GA, for example.)  Moreover, while the industry mix in RDU (science/tech, engineering, higher ed) is good for attracting diverse, college-educated transplants to the metro, Charlotte (the bigger of the two) is more of a mixed-bag due to the heavy influence of the finance sector there.  Georgia also has the benefit of a more urbane Black population that is wealthier and easier to turnout/organize.     

Basically, as long as current partisan trends continue, North Carolina will continue to be a tough nut for Democrats to crack.  It's cities are smaller and less dynamic than Atlanta, so while they are growing these gains are being matched by further Democratic collapse in the rural areas and decreased turnout/margins among Black voters.

So generally the problem they have in Texas and Florida to some extent and what they are coming up against in the Rust Belt.  People are just more spread out than they are in other states. The cities aren't that big and a lot of the rural areas are just exurban sprawl.

Yes, this really is the weak spot of the Dems' coalition going forward.  The type of metroes where they're seeing the biggest swings/trends (ATL, Chicago, DFW, D.C./NoVa, SF Bay, NYC, etc.) are either very concentrated in a few states (most of which are already Likely/Safe D) or in states where they can easily be swamped by the exurban/rural vote (i.e., Texas, Florida and North Carolina.)  Really, the only bright spots for Dems in 2020 were in  states dominated (as in, >50% of state population) by a single metro (GA and AZ). 

North Carolina is only 66% urban, which means it's more rural than Florida, Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania or even states like Louisiana or Tennessee. 

[lfromnj]

About NC,

People always remember Obama's shock 2008 win but no one remembers the 2010 R wave that flipped the legislature and everything. 2008 and 2010 were 2 years that showed significant trends in both directions for NC.

[DINGO Joe]

Rural areas whether White or Black have the same problem, a very high elderly population that makes sustaining any vote from this year basically impossible.

[MATTROSE94]

Cal Cunningham might have had negative coattails that negative impacted Joe Biden’s performance.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Rural got redder. Its really as simple as that. And the rs have more room to grow with non college whites here

[Catalyst138]

About NC,

People always remember Obama's shock 2008 win but no one remembers the 2010 R wave that flipped the legislature and everything. 2008 and 2010 were 2 years that showed significant trends in both directions for NC.

North Carolina heavily swung R in 2010 because EVERYTHING heavily swung R in 2010. It was a destruction of Democrats in every single competitive state, not just North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC will flip back D and GA will flip R, Warnock if elected will be in a very tough race in 2022, and there is not any Senate race in 2024, but D's would have won NC if we had Jeff Jackson run instead of CUNNINGHAM and he is our best candidate in 2022 along with pickups in WI and PA